{"id":127958,"date":"2025-02-27T11:00:15","date_gmt":"2025-02-27T08:00:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/127958\/"},"modified":"2025-03-01T19:33:29","modified_gmt":"2025-03-01T16:33:29","slug":"belarus-faces-distrust-amid-shifting-military-rhetoric","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/127958\/","title":{"rendered":"Belarus faces distrust amid shifting military rhetoric"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Belarus’ neighbors view its regime with growing distrust, perceiving it as increasingly controlled by an aggressive Russia.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\n (Sputnik Belarus)<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/figcaption>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Officials blame West<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

On February 20, Major General Valer Ravienka, head of the Department of International Military Cooperation at the Ministry of Defense, urged Poland to engage with Belarus and allow Belarusian officers to inspect Polish military units up to 80 kilometers inside the country to ensure that Poland is not preparing for war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He pointed to Poland\u2019s mistrust of its eastern neighbor, citing the opening of a NATO missile defense base last year and the expansion of Poland’s armed forces.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Over the last five years, Minsk has pursued a confrontational policy with the West, drawing Belarus deeper into Russia’s military plans and eroding its sovereignty.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This week, the parliaments of Belarus and Russia ratified a treaty on mutual security guarantees, signed by Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka and Russian President Vladimir Putin on December 6. \u0141uka\u0161enka claims that Russia has already deployed tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus and is planning to station Oreshnik ballistic missiles soon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trump\u2019s policy shift<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Changes in US policies under President Donald Trump have posed challenges to Europe, Ukraine, and Belarus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On February 21, during a working tour of the Smalavi\u010dy district, \u0141uka\u0161enka admitted that he was unaware of the US’s intentions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cDon\u2019t be deluded. We don\u2019t know what the United States wants. I am saying this because I am deeply immersed in these issues. We don\u2019t know what they will demand from the Russians to end the war and so on. It seems to me that they will try to pit the Russians against the Chinese. The Russians shouldn\u2019t allow this to happen,\u201d \u0141uka\u0161enka said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The shift in US policy has elicited a mixed response from Belarusian state-controlled media, with some writers praising Washington, while others continue to blame it for the world\u2019s problems.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka, however, generally adheres to his longstanding anti-Western rhetoric. On February 20, while presenting awards to security chiefs, he remarked, “We see how, instead of establishing a good-neighborly belt along Belarus’ western border, our former allies in the anti-Hitler coalition are stubbornly creating an arc of instability. The conclusion is clear: We need to be strong, stay vigilant, and strengthen the country’s defense capabilities as much as possible. This is what we are constantly doing.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Zapad 2025 raises concerns<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Belarusian-Russian military exercise Zapad 2025<\/em>, scheduled for September, is expected to heighten tensions in the region.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In January, Ravienka announced that the member states of the Vienna Document had been informed transparently about the date and the number of troops involved.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Belarus’ neighbors have at least three reasons to be concerned:<\/p>\n\n\n\n