{"id":128354,"date":"2025-03-03T10:57:54","date_gmt":"2025-03-03T07:57:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/128354\/"},"modified":"2026-04-15T13:35:32","modified_gmt":"2026-04-15T13:35:32","slug":"belarus-pays-heavy-price-for-russian-protection","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/128354\/","title":{"rendered":"Belarus pays heavy price for Russian protection"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

A controversial security treaty between Belarus and Russia was quickly ratified by the legislatures of both countries last week and signed by President Vladimir Putin. The treaty provides Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s regime with Russian military protection, including a nuclear umbrella. However, this deal brings additional complications for Belarus\u2019 neighbors and exposes Belarus to the risk of retaliatory nuclear strikes.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\n\n The Russian Yars missile system\n <\/div>\n \n
\n (Wikimedia Commons)<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/figcaption>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Belarus relies on Russia for defense<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

On February 26, Belarusian Foreign Minister Maksim Ry\u017eanko\u016d promoted the deal at the UN Disarmament Conference in Geneva, emphasizing that Moscow would use nuclear weapons to defend its ally. He also hailed Moscow\u2019s recent promise to deploy Oreshnik ballistic missiles in Belarus, allegedly for defensive purposes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ry\u017eanko\u016d criticized Poland, Lithuania and other Western nations for increasing their defense spending, while highlighting Minsk\u2019s purportedly peaceful policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In 2025, Belarus has earmarked 4.73 billion rubels (about $1.5 billion) for defense, increasing the spending from 1.5 percent of GDP in 2024 to 1.8 percent, according to economist Alie\u015b Hudzija. He also noted that actual defense spending could be higher, concealed under other budget categories.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In comparison, Poland\u2019s defense spending accounted for 4.2 percent of GDP in 2023, with projections to rise to 4.7 percent ($42 billion) in 2025, driven by fears of a Russian attack. Meanwhile, Russia is set to spend 7.5 percent of its GDP on military purposes this year, according to the British International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS). Russia\u2019s military expenditure (in terms of purchasing power parity) exceeds the combined military budgets of the European Union and the UK.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ry\u017eanko\u016d asserted in Geneva that Minsk has no intention of foolishly increasing arms purchases or military personnel, instead preferring to allocate funds to healthcare, social needs and infrastructure. While these are indeed more constructive goals, they reflect more of a pragmatic approach to saving on defense, as \u0141uka\u0161enka relies on Russia to ensure his country\u2019s security. Meanwhile, Russia invests massive amounts into militarization.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Price of alliance with Russia<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is crucial to assess the cost that Belarus has already paid and will continue to pay for its military alignment with Russia. While \u0141uka\u0161enka retains autonomy in domestic politics, he has effectively surrendered his country\u2019s military sovereignty to Moscow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In 2022, \u0141uka\u0161enka reneged on his promise to allow Russia to use Belarus as a launch pad for its invasion of Ukraine. This decision led to a severe and lasting deterioration in Belarusian-Ukrainian relations, a loss that cannot be quantified in financial terms. Economically, the fallout has been substantial: in 2021, Ukraine accounted for 13.6 percent of Belarus\u2019s exports, but that market has now been lost.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In October 2022, Prime Minister Raman Ha\u0142o\u016d\u010danka estimated the losses from severed ties with Ukraine at $4-5 billion. Minsk also faces harsh Western sanctions as a co-aggressor, severely limiting its access to the European market. In 2021, trade with the EU amounted to $16.3 billion, yielding a surplus of $2.75 billion for Belarus. By 2023, trade had dropped to $8 billion, according to Ry\u017eanko\u016d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Belarus has been forced to redirect its exports to Russia, increasing its dependence on Moscow. Additionally, it now relies on Russian logistics for transporting goods to other markets, resulting in higher logistical costs and lower profitability.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The potash industry, in particular, has been hit hard by Lithuania\u2019s decision to deny Belarus access to the Port of Klaipeda. In May 2022, Ha\u0142o\u016d\u010danka said that Western sanctions had blocked $16-18 billion worth of exports to the EU and North America. Although some shipments were redirected, profitability decreased, and by the end of last year, Belarus had accumulated a trade deficit of more than $1.3 billion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Belarus\u2019 future at risk under Russian umbrella<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

While the Belarusian government presents the stationing of Russian tactical nuclear weapons and the deployment of Oreshnik missiles as a guarantee of security, the risks for the country are, in fact, multiplying.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Putin uses Belarus as a springboard to blackmail Ukraine and Europe. Even after a potential ceasefire with Kyiv, Moscow may plan new strikes, potentially from Belarus. In retaliation, Ukrainian forces could target the Mazyr oil refinery in southern Belarus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If US President Donald Trump follows through on his promise to reduce US military support for Europe, NATO\u2019s potential will decrease, which could embolden the Kremlin\u2019s aggressive ambitions. Europe may try to compensate for a reduction in support for Ukraine from Washington, which could prompt Moscow to intensify its threats and possibly drag Belarus further into the conflict.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The alliance with Russia, an aggressor nation, is perilous for Belarus, as the country will inevitably become a target for retaliatory strikes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Russia has already used Belarus as a staging ground for its invasion of Ukraine. Analysts are now debating whether Moscow will deploy new bases and contingents there, leveraging the security treaty. As 2022 demonstrated, the Kremlin can deploy troops to Belarus and use its territory without \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s approval. Furthermore, under the pretext of protecting its nuclear arsenal, Russia could send troops to crush anti-government protests in Belarus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The treaty also calls for mutual assistance in the event of a \u201cthreat to the constitutional order,\u201d thereby strengthening Moscow\u2019s role as a regional policeman and making prospects for democratic change in Belarus even more uncertain.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Thus, the Russian military umbrella is a costly arrangement for Belarus\u2014one that may ultimately result in the loss of its sovereignty and future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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