{"id":130847,"date":"2025-03-20T16:26:41","date_gmt":"2025-03-20T13:26:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/130847\/"},"modified":"2026-04-15T13:35:32","modified_gmt":"2026-04-15T13:35:32","slug":"turcyns-dilemma-growth-vs-inflation","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/130847\/","title":{"rendered":"Tur\u010dyn’s dilemma: growth vs. inflation"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

New Prime Minister Alaksandar Tur\u010dyn told state media journalists on March 18 that his cabinet does not plan to increase the money supply to a point that it will trigger high inflation.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\n (BelTA)<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/figcaption>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Public concerns<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Tur\u010dyn, who briefed Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka on March 18, was asked to comment on rumors suggesting that the government plans to expand the money supply to maintain a high rate of economic growth. These rumors were fueled by the appointment of former Prime Minister Raman Ha\u0142o\u016d\u010danka, an advocate of expansionist policies with no banking background, as head of the National Bank of Belarus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ha\u0142o\u016d\u010danka has long advocated for greater involvement of the central bank and the banking system in the economy, \u0141uka\u0161enka remarked, commenting on his appointment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tur\u010dyn and Ha\u0142o\u016d\u010danka, \u0141uka\u0161enka added, need to \u201cfind common ground and finally resolve some issues in the economy regarding finances.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Navigating \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s conflicting economic demands<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe government and the National Bank of Belarus have competent people who understand all the challenges and risks,\u201d Tur\u010dyn reassured reporters on March 18.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, his policy decisions will ultimately depend on directives from \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s office. The Belarusian leader expressed concern that growth slowed to 3.1 percent in the first two months of the year, down from 4 percent during the same period last year. At the same time, he is worried about inflation, which has accelerated to around 2 percent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Curbing inflation requires a tight monetary policy, while stimulating growth calls for cash injections\u2014two conflicting objectives.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka criticizes Russia amid economic challenges<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Sanctions have forced Belarus to shift its economic efforts toward Russia, but even this partnership is not without its challenges.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Speaking at the Federation Council last week, \u0141uka\u0161enka criticized Moscow for its reluctance to establish joint gas and oil markets. \u201cWhy are you holding on to oil and gas? You have no place to store them. Let\u2019s strike a deal,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Belarusian government has withheld some key statistical data. However, \u0141uka\u0161enka also lamented that the two Belarusian refineries are \u201cno longer profitable.\u201d These refineries once profited from sales to Europe, but this is now impossible due to international sanctions imposed in response to Belarus\u2019 complicity in Russia\u2019s war of aggression against Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Kremlin’s delay in launching common energy markets likely stems from its desire to retain a tool of influence over its ally: obedience is rewarded with discounted energy prices, while disobedience risks price hikes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Another challenge for Belarus is that selling goods in Russia has become more difficult, as the Russian economy, hit by sanctions and put on a war footing, faces growing difficulties.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Uncertain future<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The future remains unpredictable. The ongoing war and the unpredictable policies of US President Donald Trump could trigger an unforeseen crisis at any moment. \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s high-handed approach to managing the economy and finances only adds to the instability.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For Tur\u010dyn, the mission is complex. While some view him as a potential successor to \u0141uka\u0161enka, failures beyond his control could force him to resign.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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