{"id":133517,"date":"2025-04-09T11:30:41","date_gmt":"2025-04-09T08:30:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/133517\/"},"modified":"2025-04-09T11:30:44","modified_gmt":"2025-04-09T08:30:44","slug":"trumps-explosive-tariffs-to-take-their-toll-on-belarus","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/133517\/","title":{"rendered":"Trump&#8217;s explosive tariffs to take their toll on Belarus"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong>US President Donald Trump\u2019s explosive global tariffs have now taken effect. Framed as a fight for the \u201ceconomic liberation of America,\u201d this move, however, could lead to a full-scale trade war that would have widespread consequences for the global economy, including countries like Belarus\u2014even if it does not face higher export taxes directly.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"block-image block-image-normal\">\n\n    <img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1128\" height=\"752\" src=\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/economy-crash_freepik.com_.jpg\" class=\"attachment-full size-full\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/economy-crash_freepik.com_.jpg 1128w, https:\/\/pozirk.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/economy-crash_freepik.com_-354x236.jpg 354w, https:\/\/pozirk.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/economy-crash_freepik.com_-734x490.jpg 734w, https:\/\/pozirk.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/economy-crash_freepik.com_-178x118.jpg 178w, https:\/\/pozirk.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/economy-crash_freepik.com_-768x512.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1128px) 100vw, 1128px\" \/>\n    <figcaption>\n        \n                    <div class=\"block-image__author\">\n                                <span>(freepik)<\/span>\n            <\/div>\n            <\/figcaption>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Tariff attack on almost all fronts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>On April 9, 60 of America\u2019s biggest trading partners were hit with higher US tariffs on goods. These include 104-percent levies on Chinese products\u2014a figure effectively doubled overnight by President Trump after Beijing refused to back down on its threat of retaliatory measures. The European Union now faces 20-percent taxes, while Japan is hit with 24-percent levies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-wp-embed is-provider-flourish wp-block-embed-flourish\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe class=\"wp-embedded-content\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" title=\"Interactive or visual content\" src=\"https:\/\/flo.uri.sh\/visualisation\/22491351\/embed#?secret=VP84hsACYG\" data-secret=\"VP84hsACYG\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" height=\"575\" width=\"500\"><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The escalating trade war has caused further turmoil in global stock markets. In the last hour, European shares slumped again, following similar declines across Asia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Notably, Russia and Belarus are absent from the new US tariff list. While Russia\u2019s exclusion might be seen as part of Washington\u2019s geopolitical strategy\u2014an attempt to show diplomatic flexibility amid the ongoing war in Ukraine\u2014Belarus\u2019 exclusion appears to be more mundane.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Economic ties between Minsk and Washington are largely off the radar of US foreign economic policy: trade volumes are too small to warrant significant attention. Moreover, other countries are unlikely to use Belarus as a loophole to bypass US duties. While Minsk has experience as a transit hub for re-exporting sanctioned goods to Russia\u2014bringing Belarus substantial economic benefits\u2014such a scheme seems hardly applicable in the US context.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For instance, the idea of supplying European or Japanese cars via Belarus to the United States is simply unrealistic. Nevertheless, Belarus will still be impacted by this global tariff war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">What&#8217;s wrong with US president&#8217;s logic?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Economists have criticized Trump\u2019s tariff policy. After all, the economy is not a sports game, and trade is not an arena for revenge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The global economy is so interconnected that any attempt to bring production back to the United States will inevitably result in price increases, slower growth and reduced competitiveness. Production was moved out of the United States not out of whim, but due to high labor costs, environmental concerns and more efficient logistics. Trying to reverse this trend is essentially going against the principles of a free market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Moreover, in a globalized economy, even US-made products are comprised of components produced around the world. A single part may cross the US border five or six times before it ends up as part of an assembled car.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For example, US components account for about 45 percent of one of the most popular car models in the American market, the Ford F-150. This means Trump\u2019s tariffs are not only being applied to foreign goods, but also to domestic ones.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Exports under attack<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>At first glance, Belarus may appear to be on the sidelines of the trade war. However, this is an illusion. Belarus is a small, open economy that is particularly sensitive to global economic shocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If the global economy slows down, demand for Belarusian exports will likely fall. Already, imports into Belarus are growing faster than exports, resulting in a trade deficit. The new tariffs could further depress exports and reduce foreign currency revenues.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Of course, a global economic slowdown will also affect Russia, Belarus&#8217; main economic partner and donor. Lower oil prices, reduced exports and a shrinking Russian budget may force Moscow to cut its aid to Belarus. Import substitution projects, subsidies and loans may be re-evaluated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Possible centralization<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Paradoxically, Minsk may attempt to extract political benefits from the situation. In an effort to avoid cuts to economic assistance, the government may intensify its rhetoric about external threats to rally the nation around its leader and justify the need for stronger central control. This could provide further momentum for increased centralization and tighter control over the economy and society. Economic liberalization, however, seems unlikely.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The few remaining market-oriented officials who understand the risks of disregarding fundamental economic laws are likely to face strong administrative resistance. The hardline majority will continue to push the economy to its limits in an effort to achieve growth, despite going against the laws of economics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Furthermore, the National Bank of Belarus may become a key tool in this policy shift, especially following the appointment of former Prime Minister Raman Halo\u016d\u010danka as its governor. His appointment is seen as a signal that the government intends to further strengthen its administrative control over the economy, forcing banks to expand lending to state-owned companies and programs, regardless of the financial cost.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Belarus will face increasing challenges as it tries to navigate between the competing interests of major global players. The lack of economic flexibility, insufficient market diversification and limited reserves make the Belarusian economy particularly vulnerable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"insert-block\">\n\n    <div class=\"insert-block__img\">\n        <img decoding=\"async\" width=\"354\" height=\"236\" src=\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/lukashenko-putin-orden_1128_20241009_pul-354x236.png\" class=\"attachment-medium size-medium\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/lukashenko-putin-orden_1128_20241009_pul-354x236.png 354w, https:\/\/pozirk.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/lukashenko-putin-orden_1128_20241009_pul-734x490.png 734w, https:\/\/pozirk.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/lukashenko-putin-orden_1128_20241009_pul-178x118.png 178w, https:\/\/pozirk.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/lukashenko-putin-orden_1128_20241009_pul-768x512.png 768w, https:\/\/pozirk.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/lukashenko-putin-orden_1128_20241009_pul.png 1128w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 354px) 100vw, 354px\" \/>                        <label class=\"insert-block__tag--mobile\"> \u0410\u043d\u0430\u043b\u0438\u0442\u0438\u043a\u0430<\/label>\n\n                <\/div>\n    <div class=\"insert-block__text\">\n                    <label class=\"insert-block__tag\">\u0410\u043d\u0430\u043b\u0438\u0442\u0438\u043a\u0430<\/label>\n                <h3 class=\"insert-block__title\">Prime Minister Tur\u010dyn discussing oil deal, loans in Moscow<\/h3>\n        <div class=\"insert-block__descr\">On April 7, Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka sent Prime Minister Alaksandar Tur\u010dyn to Moscow to discuss final solutions to the economic issues he had raised with Russian President Vladimir Putin. However, finding lasting solutions is unlikely, as Moscow leverages its economic power &#8230;<\/div>\n        <a class=\"insert-block__btn-block\" href=\"\/en\/longreads\/133225\">\n            <button class=\"btn\">\n                <div class='btn__text'>Read<\/div>\n            <\/button>\n        <\/a>\n    <\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>US President Donald Trump\u2019s explosive global tariffs have now taken effect. Framed as a fight for the \u201ceconomic liberation of America,\u201d this move, however, could lead to a full-scale trade war that would have widespread consequences for the global economy, including countries like Belarus\u2014even if it does not face higher export taxes directly. Tariff attack [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":46,"featured_media":133124,"template":"","rubric":[22],"class_list":["post-133517","longreads","type-longreads","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v25.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Trump&#039;s explosive tariffs to take their toll on Belarus | Pozirk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"US President Donald Trump\u2019s explosive global tariffs have now taken effect. 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