{"id":138940,"date":"2025-05-20T15:07:45","date_gmt":"2025-05-20T12:07:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/138940\/"},"modified":"2025-05-20T15:07:47","modified_gmt":"2025-05-20T12:07:47","slug":"minsk-remains-piece-on-russias-chessboard-despite-being-sidelined-from-ukraine-talks","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/138940\/","title":{"rendered":"Minsk remains piece on Russia\u2019s chessboard despite being sidelined from Ukraine talks"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Belarus has played a marginal role in the context of Russian-Ukrainian peace negotiations. Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka has refrained from commenting on preparations for the Istanbul meeting, while the Russian defense minister\u2019s May 16 visit to Minsk highlighted how Moscow continues to use Belarus in its geopolitical maneuvers.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\n\n \u0141uka\u0161enka and Putin in Valaam in 2024\n <\/div>\n \n
\n (Kremlin)<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/figcaption>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

On May 10, the leaders of France, Germany, Poland, the UK, and Ukraine called on Russia to accept a 30-day ceasefire in Ukraine, warning of new sanctions if it refused.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In response, Russian President Vladimir Putin proposed holding direct talks between Kyiv and Moscow in Istanbul on May 15. However, the meeting between Russian and Ukrainian delegations in the Turkish capital on May 16 failed to produce a breakthrough.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Belarusian state media covered the Istanbul talks, echoing Kremlin narratives. \u0141uka\u0161enka remained silent on the developments, while Belarusian Foreign Minister Maksim Ry\u017eanko\u016d on May 15 accused Kyiv of torpedoing Russian peace initiatives.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The following day, the Belarusian Foreign Ministry offered its contribution to \u201ca stable and peaceful future in our region to the benefit of the three brotherly countries and peoples.\u201d The ostentatious yet empty statement went largely unnoticed, as international attention remained fixed on Istanbul.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On May 17, Natalla Ejsmant, spokesperson for \u0141uka\u0161enka, reiterated Minsk\u2019s readiness to host potential peace talks:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cBelarus has never forced itself into the intermediary\u2019s role, neither before nor now. This is our fundamental position. But if it is necessary in the name of peace in the neighboring country\u2014our fraternal Ukraine\u2014and if all sides agree to it, we will organize the process better than anyone else.\u201d
The remark drew skeptical responses, as \u0141uka\u0161enka has consistently sought to position himself as a gracious host, despite denying any such ambition.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Belousov\u2019s visit: signal of escalation<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

While Vladimir Medinsky, head of the Russian delegation in Istanbul, signaled Russia\u2019s intent to continue the war and seize more Ukrainian territory, \u0141uka\u0161enka and his Defense Minister Viktar Chrenin met with Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov in Minsk. They discussed preparations for the large-scale military exercise Zapad 2025, scheduled for September in Belarus\u2014an event seen by European Union officials as a potential security threat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Belousov\u2019s visit likely was no coincidence. Instead, it appeared to be a calculated signal from the Kremlin that it is prepared to escalate further. Putin reminded both the EU and Ukraine that Belarus remains a tool he can deploy at will, while \u0141uka\u0161enka seeks to maximize the benefits he can extract from the situation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s silence<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

During his meeting with Belousov, \u0141uka\u0161enka revealed that he had spoken by phone with Putin on May 14, prior to the Russian delegation\u2019s departure for Istanbul\u2014but offered no details on the conversation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Putin may have informed him of his negotiation plans or coordinated immediate strategic steps. While \u0141uka\u0161enka typically enjoys revealing insider information, he remained unusually tightlipped ahead of the Istanbul talks. This silence may have served Putin\u2019s desire to keep the world guessing about whether he would personally attend the Istanbul meeting to face Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Moreover, the Belarusian leader likely felt sidelined by the lack of a role in the peace process, despite his repeated peace overtures. The 2015 Minsk Agreement was a highlight of his international career, helping improve ties with the West. He capitalized heavily on that moment\u2014but has not been granted a second opportunity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Zapad 2025: prologue to war in Europe?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Russia may deploy up to 100,000 troops to Belarus under the pretext of Zapad 2025, potentially attempting a strike on Vilnius, according to S\u00f6nke Neitzel, a military historian at Potsdam University. While he noted this scenario is unlikely, he underscored the broader military threat Russia poses to Europe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, If Russia Wins<\/em> by Carlo Masala, a professor at Bundeswehr University Munich, has become a bestseller in Germany. Masala outlines a grim scenario: Russian troops invade Estonia in March 2028, NATO fails to respond effectively, and the alliance collapses. In the end, Belarus is annexed by Russia.
These alarming scenarios\u2014drawn from intelligence sources\u2014have been largely ignored or dismissed. Minsk has not issued any comments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Belousov\u2019s visit to Minsk, coupled with Russia\u2019s refusal to compromise in Istanbul, only heightens such concerns. Although \u0141uka\u0161enka has emphasized that Minsk and Moscow are not planning to attack anyone during Zapad 2025, Belousov\u2019s call for an urgent boost in joint defenses has fueled anxiety in Vilnius, Riga and Warsaw.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka continues to exploit every opportunity to equip Belarusian forces with modern Russian weapons and profit from Russian military procurement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Moscow, in turn, sees Belarus under \u0141uka\u0161enka not only as a potential ally in its aggressive campaigns, but also as a prototype for the future of Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

May 2025: convergence of interests<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

In May 2025, Moscow and Minsk found common ground. Moscow sought to prolong the war until achieving a definitive victory, while Minsk aimed to extract maximum advantage from its military cooperation and involvement in Russia\u2019s geopolitical games.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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