{"id":140908,"date":"2025-06-02T12:58:25","date_gmt":"2025-06-02T09:58:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/140908\/"},"modified":"2025-06-02T12:58:27","modified_gmt":"2025-06-02T09:58:27","slug":"belarus-sends-peace-signals-to-avoid-deeper-war-entanglement","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/140908\/","title":{"rendered":"Belarus sends peace signals to avoid deeper war entanglement"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The Kremlin\u2019s persistence in waging war against Ukraine and heightening tensions with Europe present a serious challenge to Belarus\u2019 security.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\n (Sputnik Belarus)<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/figcaption>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The Aleksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka regime continues to reap economic, political, and propaganda benefits from Russia\u2019s “special military operation” while avoiding deeper involvement and attempting to minimize associated risks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On May 28, Defense Minister Viktar Chrenin announced a decision to scale down the joint Belarusian-Russian military exercise “Zapad-2025,” scheduled for September, and to move some of the maneuvers from Belarus\u2019 border regions deeper into the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chrenin portrayed the decision as a gesture of Minsk\u2019s willingness to de-escalate regional tensions, though he did not deny it was influenced by concerns in Europe. For several months, Western analysts have been speculating about potential scenarios for a Russian attack on Lithuania launched from Belarusian territory.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chrenin did not specify when or by whom the decision was made. His statement followed a phone conversation between \u0141uka\u0161enka and Russian President Vladimir Putin on May 26.
This move by the two leaders appears somewhat inconsistent with the broader security climate in Europe at the end of May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A Signal to Zelensky and Merz?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Ministry of Defense\u2019s press office ensured Chrenin\u2019s announcement received international attention. Unusually, it translated the statement into English and disseminated it through key Belarusian and Russian state media channels.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The timing of the announcement seemed deliberately chosen to coincide with Volodymyr Zelensky\u2019s visit to Berlin. Since the beginning of 2025, the Ukrainian president has urged European partners to take seriously the threat posed by Belarus in the context of the upcoming exercise.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Before meeting with Zelensky, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz visited Lithuania and pledged that German troops stationed there would defend the country by all available means\u2014a clear reference to Zapad-2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Merz\u2019s remarks provoked a sharp response from the Belarusian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and state propaganda outlets, which accused Germany of saber-rattling, drewing historical parallels to the Nazi invasion of the Soviet Union in 1941.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka refrained from commenting on Merz\u2019s visit directly. However, during a May 16 meeting with Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov, he stressed that Zapad-2025 was not aimed at neighboring countries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chrenin\u2019s announcement fits within this narrative and, if followed through, could be viewed as a diplomatic win for the \u0141uka\u0161enka regime, which indeed seeks to avoid escalation and convey this stance to the West.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Still, there is little evidence to suggest this decision is final or immune to reversal by Moscow. It could simply be another propaganda maneuver by Minsk and Moscow aimed at misleading Western audiences.
Practical considerations may also be at play. With Russia focusing on preparations for a new offensive in Ukraine, it may lack the resources to commit substantial forces to the exercise.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Between Moscow and the West \u2014 Like Between Scylla and Charybdis<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s cautious efforts to engage with the West have yielded little success.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He sought improved relations with the administration of Donald Trump, including by authorizing the release of American citizens imprisoned in Belarus. Yet no breakthrough in bilateral relations followed.
As relations deteriorate between Russia\u2014determined to prolong its war\u2014and European countries firmly backing Ukraine, Minsk, as Moscow\u2019s main ally, cannot realistically expect concessions from the EU or the UK.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the stalled negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, Belarus continues to play only a technical support role, such as facilitating prisoner exchanges\u2014despite \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s ambitions. Moscow proposed holding peace talks in Minsk, but Ukraine firmly rejected the idea.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, \u0141uka\u0161enka continues to benefit from Russia\u2019s war economy and the Kremlin\u2019s political and economic support, capitalizing on events like prisoner exchanges and peace initiatives to score propaganda points.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

His strategy remains consistent: to avoid direct involvement in the war and to prevent Russia from using Belarusian territory as a launchpad for attacks against neighboring Western countries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka walks tightrope<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka faces deepening dependence on Moscow but is working to minimize the risks this poses to his regime.
The ground Belarusian authorities tread is precarious. Yet, they draw cautious optimism from their experience over the past three years: so far, Minsk has managed to navigate between serving Russian interests and avoiding direct entanglement in the war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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