{"id":143788,"date":"2025-06-23T17:15:32","date_gmt":"2025-06-23T14:15:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/143788\/"},"modified":"2026-04-15T13:35:32","modified_gmt":"2026-04-15T13:35:32","slug":"cichanouskis-release-grand-deal-appears-to-be-working","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/143788\/","title":{"rendered":"Cichano\u016dski\u2019s release: grand deal appears to be working"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka on June 21 released opposition politician Siarhiej Cichano\u016dski and 13 other prisoners following a meeting with US envoy Keith Kellogg. The move came as a major surprise, though it remains unclear what benefits the Belarusian strongman expects from renewed dealings with Washington.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\n\n Siarhiej Cichano\u016dski (third from right) on his release on July 21, 2025\n <\/div>\n \n
\n (Radyjo Svaboda)<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/figcaption>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Challenger out of the blue<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Cichano\u016dski entered the political arena in 2020, galvanizing a population cowed by both the regime and the COVID-19 pandemic. Outspoken and dynamic, he bore some resemblance to a younger Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka, which may explain why the Belarusian ruler took him seriously\u2014and moved swiftly to neutralize him.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Cichano\u016dski famously urged Belarusians to “stop the cockroach,” a thinly veiled jab at the incumbent. Undeterred by the regime’s repression, the video blogger and activist crisscrossed the country, meeting people in town squares and villages, broadcasting their grievances. At his rallies, he often arrived in a vehicle topped with a giant shoe\u2014his symbolic weapon against “the cockroach.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Unsurprisingly, \u0141uka\u0161enka ordered his arrest, seeking both to blunt a political threat and avenge the mockery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In 2020, Cichano\u016dski was detained at the outset of his presidential campaign. The following year, a court sentenced him to 18 years in prison on charges that included organizing mass protests.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In his absence, his wife, \u015aviat\u0142ana Cichano\u016dskaja\u2014then a political novice\u2014stepped in to run for president in his place.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bargaining chips<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Political prisoners have long served as leverage for the Belarusian leader.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka has repeatedly cycled through phases of imprisoning dissidents after elections, then releasing them later in exchange for political concessions or economic incentives from the West.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this year, he pardoned Andrej Kuznie\u010dyk, a former journalist with RFE\/RL<\/em>\u2019s Belarus Service, and Juryj Ziankovi\u010d, a Belarusian-born US citizen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In February, The New York Times<\/em> reported that Washington was pursuing a \u201cgrand deal,\u201d seeking the release of \u201ca slew of political prisoners, including prominent ones,\u201d in exchange for easing sanctions on Belarusian banks and potash exports.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite the recent releases, Belarus continues to hold nearly 1,200 documented political prisoners. These include high-profile opposition figures such as former presidential hopeful Viktar Babaryka, his campaign manager Maryja Kale\u015bnikava, politicians Mikalaj Statkievi\u010d and Pava\u0142 Sieviaryniec, and Nobel Peace Prize laureate and human rights advocate Ale\u015b Bialacki.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka seeks degree of independence<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Though heavily dependent on Moscow, \u0141uka\u0161enka is not merely a Kremlin puppet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is unlikely he sought Moscow\u2019s approval before pardoning political prisoners. While he routinely extols the benefits of close ties with Russia, his autocratic instincts are likely irritated by its overwhelming influence in Belarusian affairs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka may hope to use this moment to secure some degree of autonomy for Belarus\u2014possibly through involvement in future peace talks between Russia and Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He retains some room for maneuver. If interested in Washington\u2019s proposals, he could release additional political prisoners and ease internal repression.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Participation in Ukraine settlement talks would allow him to present himself as an independent actor, challenging the image of Belarus as merely a Russian satellite.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What currently benefits \u0141uka\u0161enka may, in time, benefit Belarus as well.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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