{"id":144674,"date":"2025-06-30T15:46:21","date_gmt":"2025-06-30T12:46:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/144674\/"},"modified":"2026-04-15T13:35:32","modified_gmt":"2026-04-15T13:35:32","slug":"flexibility-and-force-us-eu-coordination-key-to-easing-belarus-repression","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/144674\/","title":{"rendered":"Flexibility and force: US-EU coordination key to easing Belarus repression"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Following the release of prominent opposition politician Siarhiej Cichano\u016dski and approximately 300 other political prisoners over the past year, observers are questioning whether it is realistic to secure freedom for the nearly 1,200 detainees still behind bars\u2014and whether Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka can be pressured to reduce the level of repression.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\n (Hasan Almasi \/ unsplash.com)<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/figcaption>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Much depends on Europe<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Belarusian officials have made it clear that the next move must come from the West.
Minsk expects reciprocal steps from other states, declared Ivan Tertel, head of the Belarusian Committee for State Security (KGB), after pardons were issued for Cichano\u016dski and 14 others. The released individuals included two Japanese citizens, three Poles, two Latvians and citizens of Estonia, Sweden and the United States.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the European Union has been reluctant to engage in direct negotiations with the Belarusian autocrat, Washington has reportedly been exploring a grand bargain\u2014exchanging the release of a large number of political prisoners for the partial lifting of sanctions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Minsk is primarily interested in removing restrictions on its potash fertilizer exports. However, Lithuania\u2014not the United States\u2014controls the key transit routes for Belarusian crop nutrients.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As a result, Minsk is likely hoping that the US president will pressure the EU into reciprocating for the recent pardons.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Belarus has held regular consultations with US officials over the past four years, according to Valiancin Rubako\u016d, the country\u2019s permanent representative to the UN. In February, Christopher Smith, deputy assistant secretary for Eastern Europe at the US Department of State, reportedly held a secret meeting with \u0141uka\u0161enka.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tertel hinted that the United States is not \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s only Western contact, though he provided no further details.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In October 2024, \u0141uka\u0161enka stated he had engaged in \u201cvery complicated, tough but interesting negotiations\u201d with Western officials. He may have been referring to Kevin Doyle of the US Department of State, who reportedly visited Minsk. Unconfirmed reports suggest that European officials also held clandestine meetings there.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kellogg\u2019s mission<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A coordinated effort by the EU and the United States is crucial for the release of Belarusian political prisoners.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While US President Donald Trump can make unilateral decisions, the EU requires consensus to change its policy. This has proven difficult, as Belarus\u2019s neighbors\u2014Poland and Lithuania\u2014remain firmly opposed to easing sanctions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lithuanian Foreign Minister K\u0119stutis Budrys recently emphasized that Minsk must release all political prisoners and stop taking new ones before any negotiations on sanctions can begin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Trump may now shift focus away from Belarus, as the US has secured the release of all its passport holders\u2014except, possibly, Ihar \u0141osik, a former RFE\/RL<\/em> journalist.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Keith Kellogg, Trump\u2019s special envoy, held a six-hour meeting with \u0141uka\u0161enka before the latest prisoner releases. However, Kellogg is not an expert on Belarusian detainees; his mission is to facilitate a ceasefire in Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The purpose of his meeting with \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2014who is eager to participate in peace talks on Ukraine\u2014was to assess whether the Belarusian strongman could play a useful role in Washington\u2019s regional strategy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Forced deportation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The term \u201crelease\u201d is arguably a misnomer in this context. Those freed as a result of Kellogg\u2019s visit were forcibly deported. Prisoners were transferred to the Americans with sacks over their heads, handcuffed and without any documentation. They were not consulted or given the choice to stay in Belarus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Cichano\u016dski would likely have traveled to Lithuania to reunite with his family regardless. But others, like Natalla Dulina\u2014a former assistant professor at a linguistic university\u2014did not wish to leave.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cI would like to stay in Belarus,\u201d Dulina said at a news conference in Vilnius. \u201cI have my elderly mother, my cats and my home there.\u201d She was deported just six months before completing her sentence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Any future negotiations must ensure that political prisoners are issued identification documents and given the option to remain in Belarus or go abroad voluntarily.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the short term, it is essential to guarantee that no prisoners are held incommunicado.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sanctions and diplomacy<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A mix of sanctions and diplomacy is more effective than sanctions alone. Every individual freed from prison is a source of hope for their families and for all those working for democratic change in Belarus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Without sanctions, \u0141uka\u0161enka would have little incentive to engage. However, sanctions also make Belarus more vulnerable to Russian influence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Beyond securing prisoner releases, the US and EU must maintain pressure on the regime to reduce repression. While major concessions are unlikely, even modest progress could be achieved\u2014especially if Russia begins scaling back its support for \u0141uka\u0161enka.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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