{"id":147467,"date":"2025-07-20T12:18:05","date_gmt":"2025-07-20T09:18:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/147467\/"},"modified":"2026-04-15T13:35:32","modified_gmt":"2026-04-15T13:35:32","slug":"no-easy-way-out-belarusian-exiles-advocate-for-dialogue-amid-growing-isolation","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/147467\/","title":{"rendered":"No easy way out: Belarusian exiles advocate for dialogue amid growing isolation"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Belarus\u2019 pro-democracy forces are seeking engagement with what they call \u201csensible\u201d members of the ruling establishment, opposition leader \u015aviat\u0142ana Cichano\u016dskaja said at the 107th Rose-Roth seminar in Brussels on July 15. Although the proposal appears far-fetched under Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s entrenched authoritarian regime, the opposition is drawing parallels with Poland\u2019s 1989 roundtable talks that catalyzed democratic transition.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\n (Sam Szuchan \/ unsplash.com)<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/figcaption>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

A roundtable like Poland’s?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

\u201cMany people within the \u0141uka\u0161enka system\u2014the nomenklatura\u2014support our course and do not want Belarus to become part of Russia. We are proposing a roundtable discussion, like the one in Poland in 1989,\u201d Cichano\u016dskaja said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A few days earlier, The Sunday Times<\/em> quoted her as saying that some younger officials in \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s inner circle were sharing information with the opposition, having lost faith in his leadership. She and her husband, Siarhiej Cichano\u016dski, hope to persuade such insiders to initiate a national dialogue reminiscent of the late-1980s Polish example.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Cichano\u016dskaja also expressed hope that the US president would support her vision for democratic change in Belarus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Officials unlikely to risk dissent<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The European Union refuses to engage with \u0141uka\u0161enka following what it describes as a rigged presidential election in 2020. Meanwhile, the United States has made limited progress, successfully pressuring Minsk to release several dozen political prisoners.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Cichano\u016dskaja has appealed to Donald Trump to maintain pressure on the regime by tightening sanctions and refusing to recognize \u0141uka\u0161enka as the legitimate president of Belarus. However, this hardline stance essentially rules out \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s participation in any government-opposition dialogue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The opposition leader said she is focused on reaching out to younger officials. \u201cWe\u2019re not threatening to hang them from lampposts. We tell them that \u0141uka\u0161enka will eventually die, and they should think about their future,\u201d she told The Sunday Times<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While not all officials are comfortable with the regime\u2019s repressive policies\u2014policies that have forced hundreds of thousands into exile and severed ties with the West\u2014they are unlikely to act. As long as \u0141uka\u0161enka remains in power, any attempt to negotiate with the opposition will likely be met with harsh punishment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka appears more confident now than in 2020, when he faced massive protests and refused any dialogue, ultimately crushing the uprising.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Polish parallels may not apply<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The opposition\u2019s call for dialogue mirrors Poland\u2019s historic roundtable talks, but the contexts differ starkly. In the late 1980s, Poland’s Solidarity movement had gained strong momentum through mass protests and strikes as the Soviet Union neared collapse.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In contrast, Belarus\u2019 opposition, weakened by relentless repression, cannot currently mobilize large-scale civil resistance. If the political climate inside the country changes dramatically, it is likely that new leaders will emerge from within Belarus, sidelining the current exiled leadership.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Siarhiej Cichano\u016dski acknowledged in his first press conference after release that Russia\u2019s weakening could accelerate change in Belarus. Still, the Kremlin appears to retain enough capacity to continue its campaign in Ukraine. A cautious Trump may prefer to avoid instability that could provoke a nuclear crisis in Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Challenge of rebuilding a nation<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

While the idea of a government-society dialogue may seem overly ambitious, it is essential for the country\u2019s future. However, such a dialogue is complex and demands sustained effort.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Back in 2021, MEP Petras Au\u0161trevi\u010dius expressed hope that the EU\u2019s fourth sanctions package would force \u0141uka\u0161enka into negotiating a peaceful transition. Now, with the 18th sanctions package in place, Belarus has regressed even further into totalitarianism. Some EU politicians have resigned themselves to isolating Belarus and treating it as a Russian satellite.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There are no simple solutions. Western powers often pursue their own interests. Trump, for instance, might prioritize geopolitical stability over democracy in Belarus. Many now believe that only Belarusians themselves can resolve the country\u2019s crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If they succeed in resisting Russia\u2019s encroachment, they will face the difficult task of rebuilding their nation and seeking compromise.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the meantime, exiled leaders would do well to articulate a clear vision for initiating a national dialogue, rather than hoping Trump or any foreign power will solve their problems.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

History of failed attempts<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The West has repeatedly tried to broker talks between the regime and the opposition during \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s three decades in power. Yet true national dialogue goes beyond mere negotiations between government and opposition factions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In 1999, the OSCE Advisory and Monitoring Group, led by Hans-Georg Wieck, persuaded the government to grant the opposition limited access to state television. However, \u0141uka\u0161enka halted talks in early 2000.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Between 2009 and 2011, the \u0141uka\u0161enka administration allowed moderate opposition figures to engage with officials through the Public Advisory Council, led by then-chief of staff U\u0142adzimir Makiej. But the council was disbanded amid criticism that it served only as a fa\u00e7ade.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It seems \u0141uka\u0161enka periodically explored better relations with the West to expand his geopolitical maneuvering space, but consistently avoided any meaningful concessions. For their part, Western powers sought to lure Minsk away from Moscow\u2019s influence\u2014but with limited success.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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