{"id":148010,"date":"2025-07-24T13:32:45","date_gmt":"2025-07-24T10:32:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/148010\/"},"modified":"2025-07-24T13:32:47","modified_gmt":"2025-07-24T10:32:47","slug":"spike-in-irregular-migration-is-putin-behind-lukasenka","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/148010\/","title":{"rendered":"Spike in irregular migration: is Putin behind \u0141uka\u0161enka?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Irregular migration from Belarus into Poland has become a major concern in both Poland and Germany, with politicians describing the summer spike as part of Russia\u2019s hybrid war against the European Union. Many commentators suggest that the Belarusian ruler plays a secondary role in the escalation, attributing the crisis primarily to Moscow.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\n (BelTA's video\/Pozirk's still)<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/figcaption>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

On July 21, German Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt paid a working visit to Poland to inspect the Polish-Belarusian border. During a meeting with his Polish counterpart, Tomasz Siemoniak, Dobrindt emphasized Warsaw\u2019s role in securing the EU\u2019s eastern frontier and promised comprehensive German support. He also accused Moscow and Minsk of weaponizing migration in their standoff with the EU.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Paul Ziemiak, secretary general of the Christian Democratic Union in the federal state of North Rhine\u2013Westphalia, who accompanied Dobrindt, accused Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka of facilitating EU-bound migration under instructions from Moscow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The visit was largely symbolic, intended to demonstrate constructive cooperation between Warsaw and Berlin in countering irregular migration amid reports of tensions between the two countries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In May, Dobrindt ordered stricter controls at Germany\u2019s borders, instructing federal police to deny entry to undocumented migrants, including asylum seekers arriving from other EU member states.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fearing a mass return of migrants who entered via the so-called \u201cBelarus route\u201d through Poland, Warsaw reinstated border controls in July at its borders with Lithuania and Germany.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a gesture aimed at easing tensions, Germany pledged additional support to Poland. Berlin is even considering sending equipment\u2014such as drones\u2014and deploying federal police officers to help secure the EU\u2019s eastern frontier.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Minsk largely ignored Dobrindt\u2019s visit, likely to avoid further straining already poor relations with Germany.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Instead, the Belarusian foreign ministry directed its strongest rhetoric at Poland and Lithuania. Officials in both countries are known for their sharp accusations against Minsk, claiming it coordinates migration flows and provokes border tensions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What\u2019s behind new escalation?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

In mid-July, illegal migration once again became a central topic in European media following a significant increase in undocumented arrivals. The surge has been linked to rapidly deteriorating conditions in parts of Africa, the Middle East and Afghanistan, as well as favorable summer weather and shifting political circumstances. Among the latter is German Chancellor Friedrich Merz\u2019s tougher migration policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Human traffickers in North Africa, who control many migration routes, have reportedly lowered their prices in an attempt to cash in \u201cbefore it\u2019s too late.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Many analysts believe political forces are also driving the increased migration pressure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In discussions about migration to the Greek island of Crete, politicians frequently mention Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar\u2014arguably the most powerful figure in Libya\u2014and assign blame to \u0141uka\u0161enka and his Russian patron, Vladimir Putin, for pressure at the EU\u2019s eastern borders.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Both Haftar and \u0141uka\u0161enka have a track record of using migration as a tool to exert pressure on the EU. They maintain close ties to the Kremlin, and according to Bild<\/em>, some of the migrants attempting to enter Poland have arrived in Belarus from Libya or via Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although the Russian connection appears plausible, no direct evidence has emerged proving that Moscow is orchestrating the operations. Nevertheless, such migration crises destabilize the EU\u2014an outcome that undeniably serves Russian interests.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Western statements about \u0141uka\u0161enka remain ambivalent: on one hand, he is accused of subversive activities against the EU; on the other, he is often portrayed as merely executing orders from the Kremlin. Notably, despite the accusations, there has been no move to impose new sanctions against Belarus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Minsk prefers to stay quiet<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The portrayal of \u0141uka\u0161enka as a Kremlin puppet is not new. This narrative dominated the discourse during the 2021 migration crisis. At that time, amid mass protests and violent repression in Belarus, European leaders\u2014including then-German Chancellor Angela Merkel\u2014avoided direct contact with the Belarusian strongman, opting instead to engage with Putin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now, four years later, it seems highly likely that the 2021 crisis was orchestrated by Belarusian authorities\u2014at the very least with Kremlin approval, if not full coordination.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That crisis was an attempt to pressure the EU into lifting sanctions in exchange for halting the migrant influx. The strategy backfired, resulting in even harsher sanctions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The 2021 episode stands as one of the greatest political miscalculations in \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s long tenure. Although he has not abandoned the use of irregular migration as leverage, he now acts more cautiously, wary of overstepping.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Belarusian regime continues to exploit the migration issue for anti-Western propaganda and gains economically by offering services to migrants. But deliberate escalation risks renewed sanctions and deeper isolation. It could also jeopardize relations with Hungary\u2014perhaps Belarus\u2019s only potential ally within the EU. The government of Viktor Orb\u00e1n is known for its tough stance on irregular migration.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Western experts often underestimate the extent of \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s autonomy, tending to view him solely as a Kremlin puppet. However, if a new migration crisis unfolds, Belarus\u2019 role is likely to be more complex.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With Russia-EU relations worsening and the large-scale military exercise \u201cZapad-2025\u201d approaching in September, \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2014just as during the early stages of Russia\u2019s full-scale invasion of Ukraine\u2014may once again find himself compelled to follow the Kremlin\u2019s lead, even if he would personally prefer to avoid further escalation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Under current conditions, it is unlikely that the Belarusian ruler would independently initiate a major migration crisis. But he could be drawn into one by Putin\u2014someone to whom the Belarusian autocrat cannot say \u201cno.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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