{"id":149103,"date":"2025-07-31T18:25:14","date_gmt":"2025-07-31T15:25:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/149103\/"},"modified":"2025-07-31T18:25:16","modified_gmt":"2025-07-31T15:25:16","slug":"prepare-cart-in-winter-idea-of-engagement-with-sensible-officials-not-a-naivety-but-a-strategy","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/149103\/","title":{"rendered":"Prepare cart in winter: idea of engagement with \u201csensible\u201d officials not a naivety but a strategy"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

History does not unfold on a fixed schedule. Major shifts rarely follow a blueprint \u2014 they happen when someone is prepared to seize the right moment. Despite skepticism, the July 15 proposal by \u015aviat\u0142ana Cichano\u016dskaja to engage with \u201csensible\u201d officials within the regime is far from na\u00efve \u2014 it is a pragmatic strategy.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\n (freepik.com)<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/figcaption>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

A regime on the brink of transition<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Since 2021\u20132022, Belarus has been undergoing what can be described as a \u0141uka\u0161enka-style perestroika<\/em>. In particular, the Belarusian ruler, in February 2022, codified a two-term limit for presidents in the Constitution and granted the All-Belarusian People\u2019s Assembly meaningful powers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Both moves signal preparation for a transition \u2014 even if that transition lies in the distant future. A power handover would be an epochal moment for both the regime and \u0141uka\u0161enka personally, which is why he is considering all possible scenarios and risks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If events go off script, the constitutional term limit provides a mechanism to recalibrate the political process or reshape the system. Power could, for instance, shift to the All-Belarusian People\u2019s Assembly, moving Belarus toward an Iran-style system where a nominal president exists, but real authority rests with a supreme leader. Term limits in this case act as a safeguard to prevent a president from becoming too powerful.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other hand, if the transition proceeds according to plan, the term limit can be discarded at will. When convenient, the people can be called upon to \u201cexpress their will\u201d through a referendum that would allow \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s chosen successor to be reelected indefinitely.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In August 2022, shortly after the referendum, \u0141uka\u0161enka publicly lamented the absence of a constitutional provision allowing the president to be elected by the All-Belarusian People\u2019s Assembly. Since then, high-ranking officials have occasionally echoed this idea.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For example, in February 2025, Central Election Commission head Ihar Karpienka, while extolling the virtues of the Chinese political system, suggested that Belarus might consider electing the president through the Assembly rather than by popular vote. In late May, pro-regime communist leader Siarhei Syrankou expressed similar views.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This push to transfer presidential election powers from the electorate to the Assembly makes more sense in light of an impending transition.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reelecting \u0141uka\u0161enka is one thing; electing his successor is quite another. Even his own reelection in 2020 came dangerously close to disaster. The election of a successor carries far higher risks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Elections via the Assembly \u2014 with its 1,200 handpicked delegates \u2014 are much easier to manage than unpredictable general elections involving six million voters. Any missteps or lapses in discipline within the Assembly would not have the same potentially catastrophic consequences as would a flawed public vote.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This appears to be the regime\u2019s evolving strategy \u2014 a tightly controlled perestroika<\/em> guided by the principle: \u201cSee what Gorbachev did, and do the opposite.\u201d Maximum control and total insulation from outside influence. And by \u201coutside,\u201d the regime means not only foreign actors, but also the Belarusian public and even segments of the elite outside \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s inner circle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

When will winter end \u2014 and why strategy matters<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka categorically rules out engagement with the opposition or its involvement in the transition of power.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That is precisely why it makes strategic sense for the opposition to seek dialogue with reasonable elements within the state apparatus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There are no entirely safe transformation scenarios for authoritarian regimes \u2014 especially where power transitions are concerned. A \u201cblack swan\u201d event can derail even the best-laid plans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Such a disruptive event could stem from a geopolitical shift or an unexpected incident on the periphery. It could be something as bizarre and sudden as what happened in South Korea in 1979, when the intelligence chief assassinated the all-powerful dictator Park Chung-hee.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While South Korea\u2019s authoritarian system endured for a time, the event itself remains a textbook black swan \u2014 unpredictable by any rational calculation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Autocrats, like all mortals, operate with limited rationality. They ignore warning signs, see only what they wish to see and surround themselves with yes-men, cultivating an illusion of absolute control. These cognitive distortions can easily sabotage any attempt at a smooth transition.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This brings us back to the rationale for proposing a round table with elements inside the regime. History shows that major transformations often come when someone is prepared to take advantage of favorable \u2014 and often accidental \u2014 circumstances. But to seize those opportunities, one must prepare well in advance, long before any signs of change appear.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The old saying, \u201cPrepare the sleigh in summer and the cart in winter,\u201d captures the essence of strategic foresight. The idea of a round table is not na\u00efve optimism \u2014 it is one of the many \u201ccarts\u201d that must be readied during the long political winter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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