{"id":152587,"date":"2025-08-26T12:45:42","date_gmt":"2025-08-26T09:45:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/152587\/"},"modified":"2025-08-26T12:46:42","modified_gmt":"2025-08-26T09:46:42","slug":"lukasenka-looking-to-hit-jackpot-in-game-with-trump","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/152587\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0141uka\u0161enka looking to hit jackpot in game with Trump"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Donald Trump\u2019s call to Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka on August 15, accompanied by flattering remarks from the American president, unexpectedly and significantly boosted the Belarusian ruler\u2019s political confidence. For many years, the Belarusian ruler had endured the dubious status of pariah in the \u201ccollective West.\u201d Now he seeks to increase his symbolic capital and, if possible, convert it into concrete economic and political gains.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\n (Anna Shvets\/pexels.com)<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/figcaption>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

In his interview with Time<\/em> Magazine<\/em> journalist Simon Shuster in late July, \u0141uka\u0161enka presented himself as an admirer of Trump, eager to take relations with the United States to a new level. He also positioned himself as \u201cPutin\u2019s whisperer,\u201d offering advice to Americans on how best to build dialogue with the Kremlin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Unexpected call<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Minsk may have played a role in facilitating contacts between Moscow and Washington, as the Trump administration looks for new channels to end the war in Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trump phoned \u0141uka\u0161enka just before his talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska on August 15, apparently seeking additional insight from one of Putin\u2019s closest allies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

After the call, during which Trump showered his Belarusian interlocutor with epithets such as \u201chighly respected president\u201d and \u201cpowerful leader,\u201d even \u0141uka\u0161enka himself may have been surprised.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The call also received a cautiously positive response from opponents of the regime, since Trump underscored that Washington is working to secure the release of 1,300 political prisoners. Belarusian diplomats spoke of new prospects for improving ties with the United States, while state propaganda treated the conversation as a political windfall.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

State media, however, ignored the unpleasant issue of political prisoners, while \u0141uka\u0161enka waited a full week before commenting on his exchange with Trump.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Little hope for breakthrough on Ukraine<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Contacts between Trump and \u0141uka\u0161enka should be viewed primarily in the context of US efforts to halt the war in Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For his part, \u0141uka\u0161enka sees a window of opportunity. He knows that improving relations with Washington\u2014and taking part in peace talks or in shaping a new European security architecture\u2014depends entirely on the positions of the major powers in both East and West.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Still, prospects for a settlement remain murky, and excessive publicity could backfire. For this reason, \u0141uka\u0161enka is acting with extreme caution, avoiding premature statements and preferring to wait. So far, this strategy has served him well.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Trump\u2013Putin meeting in Alaska, followed by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky\u2019s visit to Washington alongside European leaders, was hailed as a potential historic turning point for Ukraine, Europe and the wider world. Yet the concrete results remain unclear. Discussions of settlement mechanisms, territorial exchanges and security guarantees for Ukraine remain largely theoretical, often detached from political reality.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Former German ambassador to the United States Wolfgang Ischinger, longtime chairman of the Munich Security Conference, offered a sober assessment in an interview with ZDF<\/em>: \u201cOn the road from war to peace, neither in Alaska nor in Washington did we actually make a concrete, significant step forward.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka likely shares this view. While Trump\u2019s attention flattered his ego, the Belarusian leader emphasized on August 22 that Minsk expects concrete actions behind the fine words\u2014and those actions are still lacking.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What the Belarusian ruler wants<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

In his Time<\/em> interview and other public statements, \u0141uka\u0161enka repeatedly stressed his desire to normalize relations with the United States. He is likely hoping for the return of an American ambassador to Minsk, a final exit from international isolation and the lifting of US economic sanctions on Belarus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He also aspires to participate in possible peace talks and to influence Europe\u2019s new security framework. Hosting such talks in Minsk would be a triumph, though Belarusian authorities understand that this is improbable. They know Putin has no intention of meeting Zelensky and will do everything possible to prevent it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Thus, when \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s press secretary Natalla Ejsmant offered Minsk as a venue, the gesture was largely symbolic, with little expectation of success\u2014a fact \u0141uka\u0161enka confirmed on August 22.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

His ambitions, however, extend beyond economics, foreign policy and security. A personal meeting with Trump\u2014whether in Washington or Minsk\u2014would be a major symbolic victory.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The only US presidential visit to independent Belarus took place in January 1994, before \u0141uka\u0161enka came to power. Since then, four American presidents have come and gone without visiting Minsk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s fixation on hosting a US president reflects his Soviet-era political formation. He views America ambivalently: on the one hand, as leader of a hostile \u201cWestern world\u201d; on the other, as the ultimate source of prestige. Recognition from Washington greatly enhances his self-esteem.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In this sense, he resembles Erich Honecker, leader of East Germany\u2019s ruling Socialist Unity Party, who in the 1980s invested heavily in arranging a state visit to the United States\u2014a goal that became the unattainable dream of his foreign policy career.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While \u0141uka\u0161enka hopes to benefit politically from a meeting with Trump, he is equally focused on preserving his authoritarian system. Minsk expects Washington to scale back support for Belarusian pro-democracy forces and abandon any push for democratization. Trump\u2019s foreign policy, rooted in Realpolitik, gives \u0141uka\u0161enka hope that this might be achievable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Minsk hurries slowly<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Such ambitions carry serious risks for the Belarusian authorities, and their realization depends on US\u2013Russia relations and the trajectory of the Ukrainian peace process.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Washington expects Minsk to release all political prisoners\u2014a move the US side could present as a personal victory for Trump, potentially even boosting his chances for a Nobel Peace Prize. If \u0141uka\u0161enka takes this difficult step, he will likely allow only cosmetic political liberalization, without altering the repressive nature of his regime.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Belarus\u2019 ties with Washington also hinge on further progress in US\u2013Russia relations. This is precisely why \u0141uka\u0161enka hesitates\u2014reluctant to grant Trump concessions that might deprive him of a bargaining chip in future negotiations with the \u201cWesterners.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, relations with Europe remain stagnant. Minsk\u2019s hope that European leaders will follow Trump\u2019s lead in engaging with Belarus appears na\u00efve.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In August 2025, \u0141uka\u0161enka significantly expanded his symbolic capital. The question is whether he can now translate that capital into tangible political and economic results.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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