{"id":154236,"date":"2025-09-08T10:46:31","date_gmt":"2025-09-08T07:46:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/154236\/"},"modified":"2025-09-08T10:46:33","modified_gmt":"2025-09-08T07:46:33","slug":"europe-remains-skeptical-of-trumps-engagement-with-lukasenka","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/154236\/","title":{"rendered":"Europe remains skeptical of Trump\u2019s engagement with \u0141uka\u0161enka"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The Trump administration\u2019s approach to the regime of Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka diverges fundamentally from that of its European partners. Washington views engagement with Minsk as part of a broader geopolitical game involving Russia and China. Brussels, by contrast, regards the Russia-dependent authoritarian regime in Minsk as a direct threat to European security.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\n (Anna Shvets \/ pexels.com)<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/figcaption>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

On September 5, Donald Trump unexpectedly raised the issue of political prisoners in Belarus. The US president said that Belarus was holding between 1,400 and 1,500 \u201chostages,\u201d many of them for political reasons. \u201cAnd it looks like they are gonna be released at some point in the near future,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Earlier that month, Lithuanian MP Emanuelis Zingeris and French MP Fr\u00e9d\u00e9ric Petit expressed concern that Washington was acting unilaterally to secure the release of Belarusian prisoners without consulting European partners. Their worry is justified: coordination between Washington and Brussels\u2014something European lawmakers have been hoping for\u2014could make such efforts far more effective. Yet neither Washington nor Minsk appears interested in EU engagement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Democratization not a US priority<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

On September 6, when answering journalists\u2019 questions, Trump suggested that Washington\u2019s anti-drug campaign was not aimed at regime change in Venezuela, despite worsening relations between Caracas and Washington in recent months.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In August, the US doubled its reward for information leading to the arrest of Venezuelan President Nicol\u00e1s Maduro to $50 million, accusing him of being \u201cone of the largest narco-traffickers in the world.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On September 6, Trump also described Maduro\u2019s July 2024 re-election as \u201cvery strange.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although Venezuela\u2019s vote was neither free nor democratic, it still compared favorably with Belarus\u2019 January 2025 presidential poll\u2014widely seen as a blatant farce. Yet US officials avoid making public statements about Belarusian elections for a reason.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Unlike Maduro, \u0141uka\u0161enka belongs to the category of so-called \u201cconvenient autocrats\u201d\u2014leaders such as Kim Jong Un or Vladimir Putin with whom Washington prefers not to pick fights. At times, the US even flatters them. \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s occasional praise of Trump has earned him certain advantages.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nevertheless, US officials tend to view the Belarusian ruler less as an independent leader and more as a figure within Putin\u2019s inner circle\u2014and a partner of China. Whenever \u0141uka\u0161enka signals interest in dialogue with Washington, especially as a potential mediator between the US and the Kremlin, the Americans are quick to seize the opportunity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Belarus\u2019 involvement in Russia\u2019s war against Ukraine, its close military ties with Moscow, and its special relationship with Beijing only add to its strategic relevance for Washington.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Recent US\u2013Belarusian contacts have been pragmatic. Both sides have demonstrated mutual interest and a willingness to move closer. The release of several detainees\u2014including American citizens\u2014was intended to build trust. Still, no real breakthrough has occurred, as progress in US\u2013Belarusian relations remains tied to progress of Washington\u2019s talks with Moscow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trump\u2019s focus on securing the release of Belarusian political prisoners has little to do with concern for democracy. Rather, he seeks to claim a success in Eastern Europe\u2014and, reportedly, to bolster his chances of being considered for a Nobel Peace Prize.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Europe maintains a hard line on Belarus<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

During his recent visit to China, \u0141uka\u0161enka met with Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico\u2014the only EU leader to attend the grand military parade marking 80 years since China\u2019s victory over Japan in World War II. According to reports, Fico even asked \u0141uka\u0161enka to set a date for a visit to Minsk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Slovakia and Hungary are the only EU states with which Minsk maintains relatively good relations. Both regularly clash with Brussels over Russia. In their dealings with Belarus, Budapest relies on joint economic projects, while Bratislava emphasizes political dialogue. Neither raises the issue of human rights.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The migration crisis orchestrated by Minsk as part of its hybrid warfare against the EU does not directly affect Slovakia or Hungary. Still, neither Fico nor Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orb\u00e1n acts as \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s advocate in Europe. They have never strongly opposed EU sanctions against Belarus\u2014unlike their resistance to sanctions on Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Minsk, for its part, hopes that more influential EU states will eventually adopt the pragmatic stance of Budapest and Bratislava. But Brussels, Paris and Berlin remain firm. The sharpest criticism comes from Belarus\u2019 immediate neighbors\u2014Poland and the Baltic states\u2014who refuse to recognize \u0141uka\u0161enka as president and see him merely as an executor of the Kremlin\u2019s will.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s loyalty to Moscow and support for its war against Ukraine, combined with his hybrid tactics\u2014including weaponizing migration and arresting foreign nationals\u2014continue to inflame tensions with Europe. The recent detention of Polish monk Grzegorz Gawe\u0142 on espionage charges is a case in point.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some observers praise Trump for his pragmatism while criticizing the EU for idealism and rigidity. Yet despite periodic declarations in Brussels about the inevitability of Belarus\u2019 democratic future, European leaders remain realistic. They do not expect \u0141uka\u0161enka to ease repression or distance himself from Moscow. Belarus is widely seen as both a potential threat and an instrument of Kremlin policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even if the war in Ukraine ends, no significant shift in Minsk\u2019s stance is anticipated. Accordingly, no major change in Europe\u2019s approach to Belarus is likely in the near future. Still, if Trump secures the release of Belarusian political prisoners, it could prove to be a game changer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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