{"id":156851,"date":"2025-09-24T11:39:04","date_gmt":"2025-09-24T08:39:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/156851\/"},"modified":"2026-04-15T13:35:32","modified_gmt":"2026-04-15T13:35:32","slug":"lukasenkas-propaganda-portrays-poland-as-caving-in-border-standoff","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/156851\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s propaganda portrays Poland as caving in border standoff"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

A Belarusian propaganda show host praised Warsaw\u2019s decision to reopen the border, claiming that Poland \u201ccaved under pressure from Batka [Dad\u2014a nickname for Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka used by his loyalists]\u201d and that \u201cGreat China\u201d had sided with Minsk.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\n (Polish Border Guard)<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/figcaption>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk on September 23 instructed the interior ministry to reopen the border with Belarus at 1 a.m. on September 25.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Zapad-2025 was just a pretext<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Poland had closed all border checkpoints on September 12, citing security concerns related to the Belarusian-Russian exercise Zapad-2025, which began the same day and ended on September 16.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The maneuvers turned out to be little more than a pretext: Minsk had already announced that it would scale down the exercise and move it further away from the country\u2019s borders.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ukrainian and Lithuanian intelligence confirmed that the drills were much smaller than similar maneuvers in the past.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Still, the ongoing migration crisis, the arrest of Polish national Grzegorz Gawe\u0142 in Lepel, Viciebsk region, and the September 10 massive drone incursion into Poland all likely influenced Warsaw\u2019s decision.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Warsaw back-pedals<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The border closure clearly hit the \u0141uka\u0161enka regime, cutting Belarusian Railway revenues, complicating potash exports to China and disrupting smuggling networks. Chinese trade and Polish businesses were also affected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Warsaw is responsible to both China and the European Union for ensuring the smooth transit of goods. As a result, both Warsaw and Minsk hoped Beijing would pressure the other side to back down.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Polish officials raised complaints about Belarus with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, while \u0141uka\u0161enka condemned Poland\u2019s move as \u201can unfriendly act toward China\u201d during a meeting with Li Xi, a senior member of the Chinese Communist Party\u2019s Politburo Standing Committee.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What exactly Chinese officials said in those negotiations remains unclear\u2014but the outcome is obvious: Poland back-pedaled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What did \u0141uka\u0161enka tell Li?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Beijing appears to have refused to push Poland\u2019s demands, which included the release of Polish minority activist Andrzej Poczobut and other political prisoners, as well as an end to the migration crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

China, itself notorious for holding political prisoners, shows little interest in such issues. Ideologically, Beijing is closer to Minsk and Moscow than to the EU, with Moscow looming behind many of \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s actions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cI realize that this is most likely an unfriendly move by the Poles\u2014a political act against the People\u2019s Republic of China, or perhaps a move designed to boost their image, as the Poles believe,\u201d \u0141uka\u0161enka told Li. \u201cBut this is by no means an economic move, because an empire like China will easily cope with this problem.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cPoland is acting like a show horse for the benefit of other countries,\u201d he added, in a clear reference to the United States. He then suggested that he and Li continue their discussion without media or officials present.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Belarusian ruler skillfully exploited the rivalry between the two superpowers to his own advantage.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Beijing might have issued a warning<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Although Warsaw reopened the border without extracting concessions from Minsk, the Chinese delegation may nonetheless have warned \u0141uka\u0161enka against escalating tensions with his neighbors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If so, some cautious engagement between Minsk and Warsaw could follow. In a small positive sign, \u0141uka\u0161enka allowed And\u017celika Borys, leader of the unofficial Union of Poles in Belarus, to visit Poczobut in Navapo\u0142ack\u2019s penal colony.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka may yet release Poczobut and Gawe\u0142 later, possibly as part of a broader bargain with US President Donald Trump. For now, however, he resists doing so, not wanting to appear as if he yielded to Polish pressure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There remains a major obstacle: Poczobut has reportedly refused \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s condition that he must leave Belarus. A similar precedent was set when opposition politician Mika\u0142aj Statkievi\u010d, pardoned by \u0141uka\u0161enka, rejected deportation to Lithuania, sparking considerable media attention.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Minsk and Warsaw could also address irregular migration. \u0141uka\u0161enka has the capacity to limit the flow of migrants across the border if he chooses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Still, engagement may prove elusive, especially given the harsh anti-Polish rhetoric coming from Minsk. A marked improvement in relations is unlikely, though limited steps to manage the most urgent issues remain possible.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ordinary Belarusians benefit<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It should be emphasized that the reopening of the border was a significant relief for many ordinary Belarusians, who no longer need to travel via Latvia or Kaliningrad to reach Warsaw.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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