{"id":159332,"date":"2025-10-09T16:49:24","date_gmt":"2025-10-09T13:49:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/159332\/"},"modified":"2026-04-15T13:35:32","modified_gmt":"2026-04-15T13:35:32","slug":"moscow-mobilizes-lukasenka-to-save-russias-gas-pump","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/159332\/","title":{"rendered":"Moscow mobilizes \u0141uka\u0161enka to save Russia\u2019s \u201cgas pump\u201d"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Russia is set to increase fuel imports from Belarus amid shortages caused by Ukrainian drone strikes targeting Russian energy infrastructure. Belarus’ two refineries will need to operate at full capacity and sell fuel at low profit margins\u2014if they are able to meet Moscow’s demands.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n \"\"\n
\n
\n\n A drone strike at the Ryazan oil refinery near Moscow forced it to suspend operation in January \n <\/div>\n \n
\n (Telegram)<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/figcaption>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Drone attacks on refineries\u2014some deep inside Russian territory\u2014surged in August and remained elevated throughout September, according to the BBC<\/em>. Since January, 21 of Russia’s 38 large refineries have been hit, with successful strikes already 48-percent higher than the total number in 2024. Reuters<\/em> reported that Ukrainian strikes have disrupted at least 17 percent of Russia\u2019s oil refining capacity, and some regions have resorted to fuel rationing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fuel supply target imposed on Belarus<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

\u201cRussia imports gasoline from various regions, including Asia (China and others) and, notably, Europe, specifically Belarus. This is a direct consequence of [Russian President Vladimir] Putin\u2019s war. The country, once dubbed the \u2018gas pump,\u2019 is now importing gasoline instead of exporting it,\u201d Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky remarked last week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On October 1, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Aleksandr Novak asked Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin to increase gasoline imports from Belarus to 300,000 tons in October, according to Kommersant<\/em>. Belarus supplied 45,000 tons of fuel to Russia in September. Novak proposed increasing imports through the Transneft pipeline and refining oil in Belarus as part of a “give-and-take” arrangement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This request followed a statement by Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka on September 26, after a meeting with Putin: \u201cWe have reached an oil deal. We have serious agreements, and no problems.\u201d He did not elaborate, but the deal could include price discounts tied to fuel supplies from Belarus to Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A few days later, on October 2, \u0141uka\u0161enka held a closed-door meeting with officials to discuss ways to boost fuel production.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

European market closed to Belarus<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Before the 2020 presidential election and the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, Belarus thrived by sourcing cheap oil from Russia, refining it and selling the resulting fuel in Europe at high profit margins. However, international sanctions targeting the regime for human rights abuses and its support of Russia’s war have severely limited Belarus’ access to foreign markets. For instance, Lithuania has blocked Belarus’ access to its Port of Klaipeda, forcing the country to rely on longer transit routes through Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally, the terms of oil trade with Russia are no longer as favorable for Belarus. Moscow recently completed a mineral extraction tax reform, which provided for compensatory payments to Minsk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In March, \u0141uka\u0161enka lamented that Belarus’ two refineries were barely profitable. \u201cWhat are holding onto oil and gas for? You have plenty of it. . . Let’s make a deal. We have two refineries capable of processing 25 million tons of crude. . . Good refineries, producing quality fuel. Europe used to buy it,\u201d he told Russia\u2019s Federation Council on March 14.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Give-and-take arrangement is usually less profitable<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Analysts have pointed out that profit margins on fuel are much lower in Russia than elsewhere due to low retail prices. Under the give-and-take arrangement mentioned by Novak, Russia would supply oil to Belarus, which would refine it and return the fuel to Russia, paying only for the refining services. In this scenario, Belarus would not be able to sell fuel at higher prices on more lucrative markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Instead, Russia would essentially mobilize Belarus’ refineries to patch the economic gaps caused by Ukrainian drone strikes. Belarus could also face fuel shortages as a result.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Since 2021, the Belarusian government has classified data related to the petrochemical industry. In 2020, Belarus\u2019 refineries produced 3.2 million tons of gasoline. If Belarus supplies Russia with 300,000 tons of gasoline per month, it could struggle to meet domestic demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reports suggest that the Mazyr and Navapo\u0142ack refineries are currently operating at 60 to 65 percent of their capacity, meaning they could ramp up production, economist Ale\u015b Hudzija said. However, refining oil on a give-and-take basis would limit their profitability.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIn 2021, the two refineries managed to increase production to 345,000 tons of gasoline per month, but that was their peak capacity under different market conditions,\u201d Hudzija told The Viewer<\/em>. \u201cNow, meeting Moscow\u2019s demands would require near-full mobilization of resources, with Belarus sacrificing higher-margin sales in other markets and quickly depleting its inventories.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Russia is set to increase fuel imports from Belarus amid shortages caused by Ukrainian drone strikes targeting Russian energy infrastructure. Belarus’ two refineries will need to operate at full capacity and sell fuel at low profit margins\u2014if they are able to meet Moscow’s demands. Drone attacks on refineries\u2014some deep inside Russian territory\u2014surged in August and […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":159333,"template":"","rubric":[24],"class_list":["post-159332","longreads","type-longreads","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nMoscow mobilizes \u0141uka\u0161enka to save Russia\u2019s \u201cgas pump\u201d | Pozirk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Russia is set to increase fuel imports from Belarus amid shortages caused by Ukrainian drone strikes targeting Russian energy infrastructure. 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