{"id":160788,"date":"2025-10-20T18:51:47","date_gmt":"2025-10-20T15:51:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/160788\/"},"modified":"2025-10-20T18:51:49","modified_gmt":"2025-10-20T15:51:49","slug":"diverging-paths-belarus-russia-falling-behind-cis-partners","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/160788\/","title":{"rendered":"Diverging paths: Belarus, Russia falling behind CIS partners"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong>At the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) summit in Dushanbe on October 10, Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka urged former Soviet republics to deepen economic cooperation as much as possible. In reality, however, the partners\u2019 paths are diverging \u2014 and that is a natural process.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"block-image block-image-normal\">\n\n    <img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1128\" height=\"752\" src=\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/hourglass_1128_pexels-com_samer-d.jpg\" class=\"attachment-full size-full\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/hourglass_1128_pexels-com_samer-d.jpg 1128w, https:\/\/pozirk.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/hourglass_1128_pexels-com_samer-d-354x236.jpg 354w, https:\/\/pozirk.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/hourglass_1128_pexels-com_samer-d-734x490.jpg 734w, https:\/\/pozirk.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/hourglass_1128_pexels-com_samer-d-178x118.jpg 178w, https:\/\/pozirk.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/hourglass_1128_pexels-com_samer-d-768x512.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1128px) 100vw, 1128px\" \/>\n    <figcaption>\n        \n                    <div class=\"block-image__author\">\n                                <span>(Samer Daboul \/ pexels.com)<\/span>\n            <\/div>\n            <\/figcaption>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Belarusian officials proudly cite their country\u2019s membership in international organizations such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, the Eurasian Economic Union and the CIS. This helps create an illusion of engagement in global politics and softens the bitterness of isolation. Yet, while entangled in war and at odds with the West, Belarus and Russia are falling behind most of their partners within these alliances.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Forum without results<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The CIS was originally conceived as a platform for the peaceful dissolution of the post-Soviet space. More than thirty years later, it has turned into an expensive forum where much is discussed but little is decided.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For Minsk and Moscow, this format remains convenient: it maintains the appearance of integration and of an alternative to the Western world. But in practice, Russia \u2014 mired in a major war against Ukraine \u2014 and its ally Belarus lag far behind their CIS partners in both economic development and global integration.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The numbers speak for themselves: between 2019 and 2024, Armenia\u2019s GDP nearly doubled, Uzbekistan grew by 70 percent and Kazakhstan by 60 percent, while Russia only by 28 percent and Belarus by just 17.9 percent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-wp-embed is-provider-flourish wp-block-embed-flourish\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe class=\"wp-embedded-content\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" title=\"Interactive or visual content\" src=\"https:\/\/flo.uri.sh\/visualisation\/25607024\/embed#?secret=ZxNrsMXcmT\" data-secret=\"ZxNrsMXcmT\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" height=\"575\" width=\"500\"><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Guns instead of butter<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The main reason is simple: Russia and Belarus are militarizing their economies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Defense contracts keep factories running and preserve jobs. But once the effects of military spending wear off, the system faces a shortage of resources for the civilian sector.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Meanwhile, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Moldova, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan \u2014 all maintaining normal relations with global markets \u2014 have benefited from an influx of foreign capital and companies leaving Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>IT firms, logistics hubs and financial services have relocated from Moscow to Almaty, Tashkent, Chi\u0219in\u0103u and Yerevan. Staying out of conflicts brings these countries not only profits but also investment in infrastructure and human capital.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Belarus, by contrast, remains a \u201cfortress under siege,\u201d where growth depends on state subsidies, sanctions evasion and gray schemes \u2014 not on innovation or new technologies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Shrinking global share<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Examining the CIS countries\u2019 shares of the global economy reveals a clear trend. Since 2019, Armenia and Kyrgyzstan have expanded their shares by 50 percent, Kazakhstan\u2019s has grown by 25 percent and Uzbekistan\u2019s by 36 percent. Belarus and Russia, however, are stagnating or declining.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Even when GDP rises but lags behind global growth, a country\u2019s share shrinks. Belarus\u2019 share of the global economy has fallen by more than six percent since 2019.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Invitation to a sinking boat<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>At the Dushanbe summit, \u0141uka\u0161enka appealed for solidarity: \u201cLet\u2019s see partners first and foremost in each other,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But for most CIS states, partnership with Belarus and Russia is becoming increasingly toxic. They prefer to deepen ties with China, the EU, T\u00fcrkiye and the Gulf countries \u2014 partners that offer investments and markets rather than threats and sanctions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Belarusian and Russian officials often interpret their neighbors\u2019 cooperation with the West as betrayal. In reality, these countries are simply doing what Moscow and Minsk have denied themselves: participating in the global economy. They are not waiting for subsidies from allies or building \u201cfortresses of traditional values\u201d \u2014 they are attracting investment, opening markets, and signing trade agreements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Belarus, judging by \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s words, sees the solution in protectionism:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cWe must ensure that only those we allow can enter our economic space.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In essence, this means restricting competition even within the CIS and EAEU \u2014 creating artificial advantages for Belarusian goods that are already losing ground in their traditional markets of Russia and Kazakhstan. Yet Minsk struggles to explain why other CIS partners should find this approach appealing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Nothing personal \u2014 just business<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Officials can speak endlessly about \u201cstrategic partnership\u201d and \u201cmutual support,\u201d but economics does not listen to rhetoric. The laws of the market are simple: investment and growth flow where there is less risk and more freedom.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>While Belarus and Russia remain entrenched in their economic trenches, other CIS countries continue to grow \u2014 not without challenges, but through openness and integration. This is not just a difference in growth rates; it is a difference in visions of the future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For Minsk, participation in the CIS or EAEU has become a matter of self-preservation. For its partners, these unions are merely bridges to the global economy \u2014 while Belarus and Russia sink deeper into confrontation with the West.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Nothing personal \u2014 just business and an open economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"insert-block\">\n\n    <div class=\"insert-block__img\">\n        <img decoding=\"async\" width=\"354\" height=\"236\" src=\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/ai-pixabay-354x236.jpg\" class=\"attachment-medium size-medium\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/ai-pixabay-354x236.jpg 354w, https:\/\/pozirk.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/ai-pixabay-734x490.jpg 734w, https:\/\/pozirk.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/ai-pixabay-178x118.jpg 178w, https:\/\/pozirk.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/ai-pixabay-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/pozirk.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/ai-pixabay.jpg 1128w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 354px) 100vw, 354px\" \/>                        <label class=\"insert-block__tag--mobile\"> The Viewer<\/label>\n\n                <\/div>\n    <div class=\"insert-block__text\">\n                    <label class=\"insert-block__tag\">The Viewer<\/label>\n                <h3 class=\"insert-block__title\">Belarusian officials set to keep AI under strict control<\/h3>\n        <div class=\"insert-block__descr\">Natalla Ka\u010danava, speaker of the upper parliamentary chamber, warned last week that without adequate oversight, artificial intelligence \u201ccan lead to an avalanche-like surge in challenges for society and the state.\u201d She stressed the need for a national regulatory framework to &#8230;<\/div>\n        <a class=\"insert-block__btn-block\" href=\"\/en\/longreads\/159810\">\n            <button class=\"btn\">\n                <div class='btn__text'>Read<\/div>\n            <\/button>\n        <\/a>\n    <\/div>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>At the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) summit in Dushanbe on October 10, Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka urged former Soviet republics to deepen economic cooperation as much as possible. In reality, however, the partners\u2019 paths are diverging \u2014 and that is a natural process. Belarusian officials proudly cite their country\u2019s membership in international organizations such as the [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":46,"featured_media":76574,"template":"","rubric":[24],"class_list":["post-160788","longreads","type-longreads","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v25.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Diverging paths: Belarus, Russia falling behind CIS partners | Pozirk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"At the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) summit in Dushanbe on October 10, Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka urged former Soviet republics to deepen economic\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/160788\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" 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