{"id":162713,"date":"2025-11-03T12:04:28","date_gmt":"2025-11-03T09:04:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/162713\/"},"modified":"2026-04-15T13:35:32","modified_gmt":"2026-04-15T13:35:32","slug":"lukasenka-tries-to-drive-a-wedge-between-vilnius-and-warsaw","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/162713\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0141uka\u0161enka tries to drive a wedge between Vilnius and Warsaw"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

In response to Lithuania\u2019s decision to close its border for a month, Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka blamed Vilnius for the cigarette-smuggling balloons, brandished threats involving the Oreshnik missile and sought to drive a wedge between Lithuania and Poland.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Lithuania closed its last two operating border checkpoints on October 28 in an effort to force Minsk to crack down on cigarette smugglers who have been sending shipments across the border by helium weather balloons. The move prompted Warsaw to delay a scheduled reopening of two Polish\u2013Belarusian border crossings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The coordination between the two neighbors infuriated the Belarusian leader. \u201cThey are looking for a way to bend us over,\u201d he told villagers in the Lepel district on October 31.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Claims that Lithuanians are launching balloons from Belarus<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka claimed that Lithuanians are launching balloons from Belarusian territory to smuggle Belarusian cigarettes into Lithuania. He said Lithuanian smugglers enter Belarus illegally through the woods, but made it clear that Belarus could smuggle cigarettes if it wished.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIt is bad that they are using balloons for smuggling. They should better smuggle in freight cars because balloons are a threat to civil airports\u2026 Anyway, let\u2019s be honest: if we needed to smuggle cigarettes to Poland, we could send a freight car there.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Accuses Poland of backing out of a deal<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka also accused Warsaw of reneging on agreements linked to the reopening of border crossings and the release of jailed journalist Andrzej Poczobut. Poczobut, a Polish minority activist, was sentenced in Belarus to eight years in prison in a case widely regarded as politically motivated. Warsaw closed the Bobrowniki checkpoint in February 2023 and tied its reopening to his release.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWe had contacts with the Poles. They are asking for these Poczobuts and admit they are spies,\u201d \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s press office quoted him as saying. \u201cOkay, we\u2019ll do the exchange. You want Poczobut\u2014we are ready to go along with that. [Poles respond:] \u2018Oh, thank you, and so on. We are ready to talk to you, we are opening the checkpoints.\u2019\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, \u0141uka\u0161enka said Warsaw later changed course. \u201cLate last night, the KGB reported to me that they [Poles] had backed out in solidarity with Lithuania over the balloons. I told them to send my regards. They withdrew\u2014well, we\u2019ll withdraw too. We\u2019re putting the matter on hold. When they\u2019re ready, they can come and we will talk.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk had announced plans to reopen two additional border crossings on October 28 in a surprise move weeks after Poland had closed its border entirely, accusing Belarus of mounting hybrid threats. The crossings\u2014most likely Bobrowniki and Ku\u017anica\u2014were originally scheduled to reopen in early November as a trial. \u201cIf it turns out for any reason that the border needs to be closed, I will not hesitate for a moment,\u201d Tusk added, linking any such step to security concerns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Two days later, Poland postponed the reopening by several weeks in solidarity with Lithuania, which closed its border to Belarus until November 30 because of the frequent incursions by cigarette-smuggling balloons. The delay puts Tusk in a difficult position: he must balance solidarity with Lithuania against domestic expectations if the deal for the release of Poczobut and Polish monk Grzegorz Gawe\u0142 falls through.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Restrictions on Lithuanian trucks, threats and criticism of the United States<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The border closure left nearly 5,000 Lithuanian trucks stranded in Belarus. Minsk moved to make life harder for Lithuanian truckers by denying them access to Polish checkpoints and restricting their transit to Lithuanian ones.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka also issued stark threats, invoking Russian nuclear weapons\u2014which he called \u201cours\u201d\u2014and warning that Oreshnik missiles would be put on combat alert in December. He said Russia had withdrawn older nuclear munitions from Belarus and delivered new ones. \u201cI want them [foreign enemies] to understand that we can strike if things get really bad. We will sit down with [Russian President Vladimir] Putin, make a decision and strike,\u201d he warned.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He attacked the United States for urging Minsk to apologize for the cigarette-smuggling balloons, telling US officials to \u201cf***k off.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Before villagers, the Belarusian leader cultivated the image of a titan challenging a global superpower. Even so, such rhetoric risks alienating potential allies\u2014and could even displease US President Donald Trump who has sometimes shown sympathy for him.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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