{"id":163229,"date":"2025-11-06T13:24:23","date_gmt":"2025-11-06T10:24:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/163229\/"},"modified":"2026-04-15T13:35:32","modified_gmt":"2026-04-15T13:35:32","slug":"will-lukasenka-rein-in-bandits-smuggling-cigarettes","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/163229\/","title":{"rendered":"Will \u0141uka\u0161enka rein in \u201cbandits\u201d smuggling cigarettes?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Lithuania\u2019s tough response to cigarette smuggling from Belarus threatens to derail a potential grand bargain between Minsk, Washington and Warsaw.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\n (Julia Sakelli \/ pexels.com)<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/figcaption>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Warsaw prepared to open border checkpoints<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Polish Interior Minister Marcin Kerwi\u0144ski announced on November 4 that Warsaw is ready to reopen two crossings on the border with Belarus within weeks. He noted that the move had been delayed by \u201crepeated provocations\u201d from the Belarusian side against Lithuania.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The remark referred to recent incursions by weather balloons carrying smuggled cigarettes from Belarus, which forced Lithuania to close its border for a month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While Poland shows solidarity with Lithuania, it is also prepared to make concessions to Minsk in exchange for the release of journalist and Polish minority activist Andrzej Poczobut, several Belsat journalists and other Poles imprisoned in Belarus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A preliminary agreement to that effect was reached during behind-the-scenes negotiations involving John Coale, a US envoy who helped secure similar releases earlier this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Jacek Brzozowski, head of Poland\u2019s Podlaskie Voivodeship, said that once the decision is made to reopen the checkpoints, preparations would take no more than 48 hours.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reopening would ease pressure on Minsk<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The reopening of the Ku\u017anica and Bobrowniki checkpoints\u2014tentatively planned for mid-November\u2014would ease the pressure currently exerted on Minsk, mainly by Lithuania.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

When Poland completely closed its border with Belarus last month, citing security threats, the move had a greater economic impact on Belarus than Lithuania\u2019s restrictions and even disrupted Chinese transit routes, but the Belarusian strongman did not yield.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, around 2,000 Lithuanian trucks remain stranded in Belarus, and Lithuanian transport companies have been pressing their government to resolve the situation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cMany drivers have been living in their truck cabins for a week, unable to return to Lithuania or continue working,\u201d said the LINAVA National Association of Road Carriers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Minsk has also banned Lithuanian trucks from crossing into Poland and Latvia, insisting that they use only Lithuanian checkpoints.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to LINAVA, transport companies stand to lose around \u20ac70 million during the month, and the closure could last even longer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In response, Bie\u0142mytservis<\/em>, a state-run logistics company, has proposed an alternative route for transporting goods between Belarus and Lithuania\u2014by rail from the Ma\u0142adzie\u010dna train station. Rail services remain unaffected by the border closures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

War of nerves between Minsk, Vilnius and Warsaw<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Tensions remain high between Minsk, Vilnius and Warsaw. Clearly, Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka could stop the flights of cigarette-smuggling balloons across the border at any time, regardless of who controls the illegal trade.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Belarusian ruler admitted that his security services are in contact with smugglers. \u201cOur bandits say, \u2018Tell the president that 200 is a way overstated number [of balloons that flew to Lithuania]. There were around 20. We don\u2019t have that many balloons,\u2019\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If the smuggling business is run by tobacco magnates, \u0141uka\u0161enka could rein them in\u2014even if they share their profits with him.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Notably, he has ordered the State Control Committee (SCC) to investigate the circulation of tobacco products and alcohol. Since \u201cthe topic of tobacco products has been discussed a lot lately,\u201d SCC head Vasil Hierasima\u016d said the committee has been instructed to study the market, \u201ctake the toughest possible measures and report to the head of state.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It seems unlikely that the smuggling is controlled by Moscow\u2019s FSB, as some claim. But even if that were true, \u0141uka\u0161enka could ask Russian President Vladimir Putin to scale down the operation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He clearly does not want to appear as though he has caved in to Lithuanian pressure. Yet he has every reason to ease tensions with Vilnius\u2014lest his broader bargain with Washington collapse.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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