{"id":163674,"date":"2025-11-11T14:02:23","date_gmt":"2025-11-11T11:02:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/163674\/"},"modified":"2025-11-11T14:03:24","modified_gmt":"2025-11-11T11:03:24","slug":"coale-likely-to-be-more-persistent-in-grand-bargain-talks-as-envoy-for-belarus","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/163674\/","title":{"rendered":"Coale likely to be more persistent in grand bargain talks as envoy for Belarus"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

US engagement with Minsk could lead to the release of political prisoners and ease tensions between Belarus and its neighbors. However, any potential deal could still fall through because of \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s intransigence.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\n\n Coale handed \u0141uka\u0161enka the cufflinks as present from Trump as the two met in September \n <\/div>\n \n
\n (BelTA)<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/figcaption>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Washington names special envoy for Belarus<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

United States President Donald Trump on Sunday nominated John Coale as special envoy to Belarus, according to his post on Truth Social.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Previously, Coale served as deputy to Keith Kellogg, Trump\u2019s special envoy for Ukraine, and was involved in negotiating the release of jailed Belarusian dissidents with Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The most recent pardon, on September 11, followed Coale\u2019s meeting with the Belarusian ruler and included 52 individuals, among them prominent opposition figures and journalists. Coale is now engaged in talks over the release of 50 more regime critics, whom Trump referred to as \u201chostages\u201d in his post.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A few weeks ago, Marcin Bosacki of the Polish foreign ministry said that the US diplomat had reached an agreement with Minsk on the next round of prisoner releases, but the deal has yet to materialize.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Minsk\u2019s concessions to Washington<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Speaking to villagers in the Lepel district on October 31, \u0141uka\u0161enka took a jab at Washington over its support for Lithuania\u2019s decision to close the border following incursions by cigarette-smuggling balloons from Belarus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nevertheless, he appears to have taken steps to ease tensions with Vilnius. In particular, he instructed the State Control Committee to investigate the circulation of tobacco products and alcohol. Since \u201cthe topic of tobacco products has been discussed a lot lately,\u201d SCC head Vasil Hierasima\u016d said the committee had been ordered to study the market, \u201ctake the toughest possible measures, and report to the head of state.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka also told border guards to act at the Belarusian-Lithuanian frontier. Although his press office has not specified what measures are to be taken, they likely concern cigarette-smuggling balloons or possibly undocumented migrants.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lithuanian officials have admitted that border guards have recently spotted fewer balloons crossing the border. Moreover, no attempts by undocumented migrants to enter Lithuania illegally were reported during the first eight days of November.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka will certainly not publicly apologize to Lithuania for the balloon incursions, but he seems keen to avoid an open clash with Washington as both sides move toward what they call a \u201cgrand bargain.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On October 28, Coale met with Lithuanian Ambassador to the US Gediminas Varvuolis. After the meeting, the U.S. diplomat posted a message on X calling on Belarus to prevent future illegal flights by weather balloons.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Grand bargain<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Coale is currently leading talks on the release of 50 Belarusian regime critics, the same group Trump described as hostages.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The September 11 pardon, following Coale\u2019s earlier meeting with \u0141uka\u0161enka, had included 52 people, among them opposition figures and journalists.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka recently said that he was open to a \u201cgrand bargain\u201d with Washington, hinting that he had specific conditions in mind.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cI tell the Americans: you have to understand me. I said that Trump acts the same way,\u201d \u0141uka\u0161enka noted. \u201cThat\u2019s the essence of this \u2018grand bargain\u2019: we do what they want, and they do what we want. We\u2019re ready for that \u2014 but we have our own interests.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In his new capacity, Coale is expected to be more persistent in negotiations on prisoner releases and may seek to include an agreement addressing the issue of weather-balloon incursions as part of the broader deal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reservations about concessions to Americans<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka has made it clear that some of his loyalists \u2014 possibly security officials \u2014 oppose making concessions to Washington, including prisoner releases.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cI told the Americans: we have people who judge me by specific actions. They see that \u0141uka\u0161enka has ceded some ground, released one prisoner or another\u2026 [and they ask:] why? He shouldn\u2019t have done that. They [opponents] should remain in prison.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

American negotiators may be pressing Minsk with difficult questions behind the scenes \u2014 for example, about the whereabouts of opposition politician Mika\u0142aj Statkievi\u010d and the possibility of his release. They may also be demanding that Minsk ease repression and allow pardoned prisoners to remain in Belarus rather than forcing them into exile.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the one hand, the Belarusian strongman does not want to make concessions cheaply. On the other, he cannot afford to hesitate too long, as his window of opportunity may soon close. Trump could lose interest in the grand bargain, or Russian President Vladimir Putin might instruct him to halt any dealings with the \u201cAnglo-Saxons\u201d behind Moscow\u2019s back.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka signaled last month that he was also interested in easing tensions with Europe. Speaking at a security conference in Minsk on October 28, he said he would not mind negotiating a grand bargain with both Washington and Brussels.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He understands that lifting US sanctions alone will not suffice unless the European Union removes its own, which are much tougher. Most importantly, Minsk seeks renewed access to the Lithuanian port of Klaipeda for the transit of Belarusian potash fertilizers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

To get things moving, \u0141uka\u0161enka could crack down on both illegal migration and cigarette smuggling. Belarusian and Lithuanian officials may already be discussing potential solutions in talks moderated by the Trump team.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That is, of course, an optimistic assumption. Any deal could still fall through because the intransigent \u0141uka\u0161enka remains difficult to negotiate with, while the White House continues to send mixed signals on Belarus policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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