{"id":167113,"date":"2025-12-06T22:18:47","date_gmt":"2025-12-06T19:18:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/167113\/"},"modified":"2026-04-15T13:35:32","modified_gmt":"2026-04-15T13:35:32","slug":"if-left-alone-belarus-could-be-devoured-by-kremlin","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/167113\/","title":{"rendered":"If left alone, Belarus could be devoured by Kremlin"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

A recent Chatham House survey<\/strong> showed a rise in support among Belarusians for a geopolitical alliance with Russia: 44 percent, up from 27 percent in September 2020 and 38 percent in December 2024. Although this is not the full picture\u2014earlier polls with more detailed questions found that an overwhelming majority of Belarusians oppose the full unification of the two countries\u2014the new data still provides substantial food for thought.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Most Belarusians, 55 percent, said their country should remain a member of the Russia-led military bloc, the Collective Security Treaty Organization. Only 15 percent would like Belarus to join the European Union, and just 8 percent favor NATO membership. A sizable proportion, 27 percent, approve or somewhat approve of Russia\u2019s military campaign in Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Breakdown of pro-Russian sentiment<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Chatham House did not specify the nature of the \u201calliance\u201d in its survey. Another poll, conducted by the Belarusian Analytical Workshop in 2023, showed that only 4.4 percent of respondents would accept Belarus joining Russia as a constituent entity, while 67 percent selected the option: \u201cBelarus and Russia should be independent but friendly countries with open borders without visas and customs controls.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Most Belarusians take a pragmatic view of relations with Russia. First, they believe it is impossible to \u201cget away\u201d from Russia geographically or economically. Second, many see benefits in Russia\u2019s supply of cheap energy. At the same time, a full merger is considered undesirable, not least because few people want to risk being drafted into the Russian army to fight in Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Doors wide open to the \u201cRussian world\u201d<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is reasonable to assume that the higher the proportion of supporters of an alliance with Russia, the greater the threat to Belarusian independence. This issue has two dimensions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

One is that Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka has long advocated closer ties with Moscow. Initially, he hoped to compete for power in Russia, but later he focused on building a close relationship with the Kremlin to extract economic concessions. Before 2020, he resisted Moscow\u2019s attempts to deepen \u201cintegration,\u201d fearing that Russia might eventually absorb Belarus. He preferred to rule the country alone.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

After suppressing the postelection protests in 2020 and providing Belarusian territory for Russia\u2019s attack on Ukraine in 2022, \u0141uka\u0161enka broke fully with the West and opened the door to the \u201cRussian world.\u201d Yet he does not appear entirely comfortable with Moscow\u2019s expanding influence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On November 17, he remarked to Yury Sliusar, governor of Russia\u2019s Rostov province, that the two countries should focus on economic cooperation \u201crather than hang around here with Rossotrudnichestvo and agitate for Russia.\u201d The remark referred to the Kremlin\u2019s main soft-power agency, which operates through the Russian House in Minsk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Isolation fuels pro-Russian sentiment and curbs EU aspirations<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The West\u2019s policy of isolating Belarus, pursued since 2020, has had unintended consequences, including a rise in pro-Russian sentiment at the expense of European aspirations. Western politicians say they are isolating the regime, but in practice they are also isolating the Belarusian people.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Support for EU membership exceeded 50 percent when Europe expanded trade with Belarus and issued a record number of Schengen visas. Belarusians could travel to developed democratic countries and see firsthand the benefits of democracy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The West\u2019s desire to isolate \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2014who backs the Kremlin and its war against Ukraine\u2014is understandable. It seeks to protect itself from various threats, including hybrid ones. However, securitization has sometimes gone too far. Some EU countries treat Belarusians with extreme suspicion. Those living in Belarus find it increasingly difficult to travel to Europe; those who fled repression face legal and bureaucratic obstacles abroad.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trains between Minsk and Vilnius have not run for a long time. Politicians say they fear the trains could carry KGB or FSB agents. Yet spies can still come by bus, which continue to operate. Even if borders were sealed completely, they could reach their destinations through other countries\u2014intelligence services will always find a way. Ordinary Belarusians, however, may be unable to afford visas and circuitous travel routes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

By contrast, it is far easier to go to Russia to study, work or spend holidays. It is therefore no surprise that support for an alliance with Russia has grown.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Burning the house to fry an egg<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Western countries use sanctions to condemn dictatorial regimes and limit their resources. However, sanctions have repeatedly proven to have limited impact on dictators themselves.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Five years of sanctions have not forced \u0141uka\u0161enka to take even a small step toward democratization. Instead, they have sharply increased Belarus\u2019 dependence on Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policymakers must always consider side effects. Some measures harm ordinary people and the country\u2019s sovereignty more than they harm \u0141uka\u0161enka and his inner circle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In words, Western politicians endorse statements by \u015aviat\u0142ana Cichano\u016dskaja and other opposition leaders about Belarus\u2019 European aspirations. In deeds, they confine Belarusians within a dictatorship, leaving them one-on-one with the Russian Empire.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policymakers should look further ahead and adopt a more flexible approach. \u0141uka\u0161enka will not remain in power forever. In the meantime, Belarusian independence is at stake\u2014and the continent\u2019s broader security architecture depends heavily on it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It would be a grave mistake to fence Belarus off or allow Putin to devour it for breakfast.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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