{"id":172542,"date":"2026-01-21T20:03:22","date_gmt":"2026-01-21T17:03:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/172542\/"},"modified":"2026-04-15T13:35:32","modified_gmt":"2026-04-15T13:35:32","slug":"pariah-for-half-the-world-lukasenka-enjoys-trumps-favor","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/172542\/","title":{"rendered":"Pariah for half the world, \u0141uka\u0161enka enjoys Trump\u2019s favor"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

A pariah for much of the world, Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka has unexpectedly found favor in Washington. The political crisis of 2020 left Minsk\u2019s relations with the West in tatters, but five years later the United States has begun to reengage with a Belarusian leader who is not recognized as president by most European countries. This week, US President Donald Trump invited \u0141uka\u0161enka to join his Board of Peace for Gaza.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Washington is also working on a grand bargain with Minsk: the release of a large number of political prisoners in exchange for sanctions relief.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yet key questions remain unanswered.
Will Europe follow Washington\u2019s lead and reengage with Minsk?
Will the Kremlin allow \u0141uka\u0161enka to expand his room for geopolitical maneuver?
How will the outcome of the Russian-Ukrainian war affect Belarus?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tension with Europe<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The European Union and the United States refused to recognize the results of Belarus\u2019 August 2020 presidential election, accusing \u0141uka\u0161enka of vote rigging. Brussels and Washington imposed their first packages of sanctions in the fall of 2020 and later tightened restrictions to punish the Belarusian government for forcing a Ryanair plane to land in Minsk, facilitating irregular migration and assisting Russia in its war against Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Relations with EU neighbors deteriorated further after an influx of undocumented Asian and African migrants crossed the border from Belarus. The Belarusian ruler made it clear that irregular migration was his retribution for Western sanctions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWe will not protect you with a noose around our neck. Sanctions are a noose around the neck of the Belarusian people. And you expect us to protect you? This will not happen,\u201d he said in October 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tensions with Lithuania reached a boiling point in 2025, when Vilnius closed all road checkpoints for three weeks in response to overflights by weather balloons carrying smuggled cigarettes from Belarus. The smuggling issue remains unresolved, although Lithuanian officials have recently noted some positive signs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

To spite Warsaw, \u0141uka\u0161enka introduced a new national holiday, People\u2019s Unity Day, marking the Soviet invasion of Poland on September 17, 1939. He has been overtly hostile toward Poland, repeatedly accusing Warsaw of seeking to recapture Western Belarus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Relations with Ukraine were ruptured after Russia used Belarusian territory to stage its failed march on Kyiv in February 2022. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on January 20 that he could not imagine his country serving on the Board of Peace together with Belarus and Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Efforts to redirect trade<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Amid growing tensions with the West, the Belarusian government sought to redirect trade and diplomatic efforts toward Russia, China and countries of the Global South.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Minsk and Beijing established what they call an \u201call-weather comprehensive strategic partnership.\u201d In September, \u0141uka\u0161enka attended a large military parade in Beijing at the invitation of Chinese President Xi Jinping.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, this pivot has produced few of the expected economic benefits. Belarus continues to sell potash fertilizers to China, but logistics have been disrupted by Lithuania\u2019s decision to deny the Belarusian potash giant access to the Port of Klaip\u0117da. Moreover, Chinese buyers pay less for potassium chloride than European companies did before the embargo.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Belarus now runs a large trade deficit with China. In January\u2013April 2025, it sold $650 million worth of goods to China while importing $1.78 billion worth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Geopolitically, China is no counterweight to Russia\u2019s colossal influence. If Russian leader Vladimir Putin were to decide to annex Belarus, Xi Jinping would not come to its defense.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka has urged ministers and diplomats to sell more goods across the Global South and has personally traveled to numerous countries to promote Belarusian exports. The effort, however, has largely failed. Exports to countries outside the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) fell by 7.7 percent in the first 11 months of 2025, to $9.7 billion, while imports from those countries rose by 2.6 percent, to $19 billion. The trade deficit widened by 18.2 percent, reaching $8.3 billion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka may have many friends among authoritarian leaders in the Global South, but their pockets are full of holes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cRicher countries are integrated into international trade. They already have partners that are more important than Belarus, such as the EU, the United States and possibly China. There are no free niches in the market. Poorer countries visited by \u0141uka\u0161enka simply have no money,\u201d said economist Le\u016d Lvo\u016dski of the BEROC think tank.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reliance on Russia<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The Belarusian economy has grown over the past three years\u2014by 3.9 percent in 2023, 4 percent in 2024 and 1.3 percent in 2025, according to official statistics. Growth has been driven primarily by rising exports to Russia and Russian military orders.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The slowdown in 2025 reflects increased competition from Chinese manufacturers in Russia and Russia\u2019s own economic difficulties.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Belarus\u2019 economic, political and military dependence on Russia has deepened dramatically since 2020 amid deteriorating relations with democratic countries. In 2021, \u0141uka\u0161enka approved 28 \u201cunion programs\u201d with Russia and endorsed another similar package in 2024, after having rejected comparable integration initiatives in 2019.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Russia claims to have deployed tactical nuclear weapons and the Oreshnik hypersonic intermediate-range missile system in Belarus, using these claims to intimidate EU countries and NATO. This heavy dependence brings Belarus a step closer to de facto annexation by Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Uncertain future<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka has pledged loyalty to Russia and even promised to defend Putin \u201cback to back,\u201d yet the alliance offers him little real security. His peace initiatives appear designed to create room for maneuver and reduce Russian influence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite his grim international reputation, Trump appears willing to do business with him. \u0141uka\u0161enka has been lucky many times throughout his political career, and it is difficult to explain why Trump has lavished so much attention on him, even calling him a \u201chighly honored president\u201d in one message.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Perhaps \u0141uka\u0161enka has sold himself as a connoisseur of Putin\u2019s psychology. Perhaps Trump craves the Nobel Peace Prize and believes the release of Belarusian prisoners could help him secure it. Or perhaps US interests in Belarusian potash fertilizers play a role. More likely, a combination of factors has handed \u0141uka\u0161enka another lucky ticket back into global politics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

US envoy John Coale said he is working to secure the release of around 1,000 Belarusian prisoners. Trump has repeatedly mentioned \u0141uka\u0161enka in connection with the planned release of what he has called hostages.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka appears interested in a grand bargain with Washington to ease sanctions. Minsk\u2013Washington contacts have sparked intense debate among opposition activists. Some commentators are enthusiastic, urging the EU to abandon sanctions and adopt a more flexible approach. A group of Belarusian political analysts, including Arciom \u0160rajbman, has promoted a roadmap for de-escalation between the EU and Belarus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Others are outraged by what they see as cynical exchanges of political prisoners for sanctions relief\u2014including aircraft parts for \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s Boeing\u2014arguing that political repression continues unabated and that the regime keeps arresting new opponents.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some observers suggest that granting \u0141uka\u0161enka a degree of legitimacy could strengthen Belarus\u2019 ability to resist Russian absorption. Frankly, these debates may matter little. The world appears to have entered a chaotic period in which established rules of international relations are routinely broken. The future of Belarus has become even more uncertain.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A pariah for much of the world, Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka has unexpectedly found favor in Washington. The political crisis of 2020 left Minsk\u2019s relations with the West in tatters, but five years later the United States has begun to reengage with a Belarusian leader who is not recognized as president by most European countries. This week, […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":172420,"template":"","rubric":[22],"class_list":["post-172542","longreads","type-longreads","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nPariah for half the world, \u0141uka\u0161enka enjoys Trump\u2019s favor | Pozirk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"A pariah for much of the world, Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka has unexpectedly found favor in Washington. 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