{"id":173186,"date":"2026-01-27T15:35:26","date_gmt":"2026-01-27T12:35:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/173186\/"},"modified":"2026-04-15T13:35:32","modified_gmt":"2026-04-15T13:35:32","slug":"cichanouskaja-on-the-move-should-she-take-all-her-luggage-to-warsaw","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/173186\/","title":{"rendered":"Cichano\u016dskaja on the move: should she take all her luggage to Warsaw?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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\u015aviat\u0142ana Cichano\u016dskaja\u2019s office appears set to relocate from Vilnius to Warsaw over security concerns, according to reports by AFP<\/em> and BNS<\/em>.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vilnius no longer safe<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The Lithuanian government has downgraded security for the Belarusian opposition leader, transferring responsibility from the elite leadership protection service to the regular police.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The decision disrupted the work of her office and forced Cichano\u016dskaja to cancel a planned visit to Armenia. Lithuanian officials defended the move, insisting that her security arrangements still correspond to the level of threat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Dzianis Ku\u010dynski, an aide to the opposition leader, said the Belarusian secret services have intensified their intimidation campaign against Cichano\u016dskaja\u2019s team.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cKGB agents call our staff almost every day to threaten their relatives in Belarus and carry out cyberattacks,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Clearly, Lithuania\u2019s decision appears to be political rather than technical.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

End of a cycle<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Lithuanian media report that Vilnius has spent around \u20ac1 million annually on Chichano\u016dskaja\u2019s protection. Yet the issue goes beyond money.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Time has also played a role. In 2020, when Cichano\u016dskaja fled Minsk for Vilnius, many observers believed the collapse of the Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka regime was only a matter of time. Lithuania hoped to benefit from political change in its neighboring country. That revolution, however, was suppressed, and systemic change in Belarus is no longer imminent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Following Russia\u2019s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, neighboring EU and NATO states effectively sealed themselves off from Belarus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, some Lithuanian politicians and ordinary citizens have grown uneasy about the influx of political migrants from Belarus. Some even fear that Belarusians might lay claim to historical heritage and the city of Vilnius itself.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Polls show that Lithuanian attitudes toward Belarusian emigrants have worsened in recent years. Increasing numbers of Belarusians are leaving Lithuania for Poland, where they are reportedly treated more favorably.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some Lithuanian politicians have also argued that Cichano\u016dskaja\u2019s office hampers efforts to improve relations with Minsk. Rumors persist that both Vilnius and Washington have pressured Cichano\u016dskaja\u2019s alternative government to relocate. Whether true or not, relations between Vilnius and her office have clearly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In this sense, a move to Poland would mark the end of the revolutionary cycle that began in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Opposition centers and outdated signboards<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Relocation could also serve as a catalyst for change, forcing the Cichano\u016dskaja team and other opposition structures to reorganize and reassess their priorities and messaging.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some commentators warn of potential tensions between Cichano\u016dskaja and Warsaw-based politician Pavie\u0142 \u0141atu\u0161ka, widely seen as the opposition\u2019s second-in-command.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141atu\u0161ka serves as deputy head of Cichano\u016dskaja\u2019s United Transitional Cabinet and leads the People\u2019s Anti-Crisis Management. Now regarded as the most prominent Belarusian political figure in Poland, he may be reluctant to fully subordinate himself to his superior within the cabinet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Until now, the opposition has operated from two centers\u2014Vilnius and Warsaw\u2014but this may soon shrink to one. The cabinet and anti-crisis management structures clearly overlap in their functions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

More importantly, these bodies, along with the Coordination Council, emerged in a very different revolutionary context and now appear outdated. The political transition has not begun, and there is little actual crisis management taking place from Warsaw.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Formally, \u0141atu\u0161ka serves as Cichano\u016dskaja\u2019s representative for the transfer of power. Yet \u0141uka\u0161enka shows no intention of relinquishing authority and has repeatedly rejected calls for dialogue with the opposition.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These opposition institutions were created during the 2020 uprising. Since then, conditions in Belarus and the broader region have changed radically. As a result, the opposition\u2019s structures require fundamental reform.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

They need not only streamlining, but an entirely new philosophy of political existence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Independence crucial for democracy<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

As US President Donald Trump shatters the postwar world order by asserting the rule of the strongest, Vladimir Putin has effectively been given free rein to act as he pleases.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Cichano\u016dskaja has warned that Belarus must not become a consolation prize for the Russian leader. While this concern is valid, the mainstream opposition\u2019s focus on tightening sanctions against \u0141uka\u0161enka does little to prevent such an outcome.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Without sanctions, it is true, \u0141uka\u0161enka would have little incentive to release political prisoners. Yet sanctions are not a sterile wonder weapon, as the examples of Iran and Cuba demonstrate. In Belarus\u2019 case, they risk undermining sovereignty by pushing both \u0141uka\u0161enka and the country even closer to Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Improved relations between Minsk and the West could benefit Belarus as a whole, even if they confer a degree of legitimacy on \u0141uka\u0161enka. Such engagement would not represent a betrayal of democratic ideals, but rather a sober assessment of realities on the ground.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The priority must always be the preservation of Belarusian independence, including through stronger ties with Europe. Independence should come first; democratic change can follow later.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From this perspective, Cichano\u016dskaja and her team must consider carefully whether it is worth carrying all of their \u201cold luggage\u201d from Vilnius to Warsaw.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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