{"id":174559,"date":"2026-02-06T15:29:43","date_gmt":"2026-02-06T12:29:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/174559\/"},"modified":"2026-04-15T13:35:32","modified_gmt":"2026-04-15T13:35:32","slug":"kalesnikava-babaryka-reinvigorate-opposition-with-good-cop-acting","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/174559\/","title":{"rendered":"Kale\u015bnikava, Babaryka reinvigorate opposition with good-cop acting"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Maryja Kale\u015bnikava and Viktar Babaryka have injected new excitement into the political life of Belarusian emigrants as the two politicians, recently released from Belarusian prisons, attempt to carve out their niches in exile politics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n \"\"\n
\n \n
\n Pictures by Cichano\u016dskaja\u2019s office, Babaryka, the Lithuanian government\u2019s press office and onliner.by. Pozirk\u2019s collage.<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/figcaption>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Kale\u015bnikava has given interviews to foreign media outlets but has largely ignored Belarusian journalists, with the exception of Maryja Zo\u0142atava, another former political prisoner.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Former banker does his homework<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Since 2020, some Belarusian nationalists have viewed Kale\u015bnikava and Babaryka as figures backed by Moscow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Babaryka is a former head of Bie\u0142hazprambank, a subsidiary of Russia\u2019s Gazprombank controlled by the Gazprom natural gas giant. He has been criticized for avoiding straightforward answers to questions about Ukraine\u2019s Crimea and Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pavie\u0142 Sieviaryniec, another former political prisoner, advised Kale\u015bnikava to speak Belarusian and wear white-red-white symbols, reminding her that she debuted in politics as a member of the Ma\u0142ady Front nationalist organization.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Babaryka, for his part, has been responsive to criticism. Upon returning to politics, he published his manifesto in both Russian and Belarusian. He also posted photographs featuring Belarusian nationalist symbols, including a white-red-white band and the Pahonia coat of arms.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka hopes for strife in the opposition camp<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Kale\u015bnikava has steered clear of criticizing \u015aviat\u0142ana Cichano\u016dskaja, whose presidential campaign she joined after Babaryka\u2019s arrest in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka hoped that the release and expulsion of Babaryka, Kale\u015bnikava and Maksim Znak would unsettle the opposition camp.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cNow that they have been released, Kale\u015bnikava and Babaryka are creating a separate center in Germany. They don\u2019t need \u0141atu\u0161kas-tikhushkas [his denigrating nickname for the opposition leadership]. Look guys, you asked for their release. But they are short of money and have to share what they have,\u201d he said at the All-Belarusian People\u2019s Assembly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In reality, no such center has been established in Germany, and it remains unclear whether Babaryka and Kale\u015bnikava will continue to work together.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On February 3, Babaryka met with Cichano\u016dskaja in Vilnius to discuss a vision for Belarus\u2019 future and a strategy for the pro-democracy forces. The meeting sent a clear signal to \u0141uka\u0161enka that his hopes for internal strife within the opposition are unlikely to materialize.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the same day, Kale\u015bnikava met in Vilnius with Inga Ruginien\u0117, urging the Lithuanian prime minister to support efforts by the United States to achieve diplomatic de-escalation with Belarus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At a separate meeting with Mindaugas Sinkevi\u010dus, leader of Lithuania\u2019s ruling Social Democratic Party, she suggested restoring passenger train service between Minsk and Vilnius and expanding cross-border bus routes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Will Cichano\u016dskaja and \u201cGerman center\u201d find common ground?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The Cichano\u016dskaja camp and the hypothetical \u201cGerman center\u201d may end up playing bad cop and good cop.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Cichano\u016dskaja and her associate Pavie\u0142 \u0141atu\u0161ka continue to push for tougher sanctions on the Belarusian regime, while Babaryka and Kale\u015bnikava have taken a more flexible stance, floating the idea of engagement between the EU and Minsk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Cichano\u016dskaja appears determined to maintain pressure through stronger sanctions, even as the EU may be leaning toward revising its sanctions policy. Five years of pressure have yielded limited results, and the bloc may be nearing the limits of what punitive measures can achieve. Meanwhile, frustration with sanctions appears to be growing among some EU voters. A possible ceasefire in Ukraine could also contribute to a gradual easing of restrictions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As a result, both harder and softer approaches to Belarus may find receptive audiences in the West.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n
\n \"\"