{"id":174868,"date":"2026-02-09T17:14:18","date_gmt":"2026-02-09T14:14:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/174868\/"},"modified":"2026-02-09T17:14:19","modified_gmt":"2026-02-09T14:14:19","slug":"sustainable-instability-why-belarusians-sell-foreign-cash","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/174868\/","title":{"rendered":"Sustainable instability: Why Belarusians sell foreign cash"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Belarusians have been selling more foreign cash than they buy, effectively becoming a key shock absorber in the country\u2019s financial system.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"block-image block-image-normal\">\n\n    <img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1128\" height=\"752\" src=\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/valuta_officelife_media.jpg\" class=\"attachment-full size-full\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/valuta_officelife_media.jpg 1128w, https:\/\/pozirk.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/valuta_officelife_media-354x236.jpg 354w, https:\/\/pozirk.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/valuta_officelife_media-734x490.jpg 734w, https:\/\/pozirk.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/valuta_officelife_media-178x118.jpg 178w, https:\/\/pozirk.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/valuta_officelife_media-768x512.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1128px) 100vw, 1128px\" \/>\n    <figcaption>\n        \n                    <div class=\"block-image__author\">\n                                <span>(officelife.media)<\/span>\n            <\/div>\n            <\/figcaption>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>This trend persists despite a significant rise in household incomes. In the past, higher wages often translated into stronger demand for dollars as a form of personal financial insurance. Today, this mechanism no longer works the same way.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>What explains this shift? And how stable is the domestic foreign exchange market if it increasingly relies on this pattern?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">January: trend continues<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-wp-embed is-provider-flourish wp-block-embed-flourish\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe class=\"wp-embedded-content\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" title=\"Interactive or visual content\" src=\"https:\/\/flo.uri.sh\/visualisation\/27569394\/embed#?secret=7o2MJIqh6j\" data-secret=\"7o2MJIqh6j\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" height=\"575\" width=\"500\"><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>According to the National Bank of Belarus (NBB), in January:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Purchases:<\/strong> $995.2 million<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Sales:<\/strong> $1,040.1 million<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Net balance:<\/strong> sales exceeded purchases by $44.9 million<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>In cash transactions, sales exceeded purchases by $160.5 million, while in online transactions purchases exceeded sales by $115.5 million.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In practical terms, people converted US dollar banknotes into rubels, while buying foreign currency online for payments, savings and more convenient transactions. Still, the overall balance favored sales, since the volume of cash currency sold far exceeded online purchases. As a result, individuals acted as net suppliers of foreign currency to the domestic market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>January\u2019s data fit neatly into a broader pattern observed in recent years:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>2023:<\/strong> sales exceeded purchases by $290 million<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>2024:<\/strong> by $1.7 billion<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>2025:<\/strong> by $1.63 billion<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>At the macroeconomic level, Belarus\u2019 foreign exchange stability is thus supported \u201cfrom below\u201d by the financial behavior of its citizens.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Why this matters for macroeconomics<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>While decisions to buy or sell foreign currency are made at the individual level, taken together they form a powerful market trend that significantly affects broader economic dynamics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>First, the surplus of foreign currency supplied by households helps cushion exchange-rate fluctuations. In effect, the population acts as a stabilizer, especially during periods when external financial inflows are volatile.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Second, this configuration allows the NBB to build up reserves through net purchases of foreign currency. With a steady supply available on the market, the central bank can buy excess currency and channel it into reserves. Much of the growth in gold and foreign exchange reserves in 2025 was driven by such purchases, with both the population and non-residents acting as net sellers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, this trend also has a darker side. The fact that households are selling foreign currency does not necessarily mean they have excess savings, have lost faith in the dollar or have suddenly embraced the Belarusian rubel.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For many households, selling foreign currency is a way to maintain their usual level of consumption. When current rubel incomes are insufficient, dollar savings or foreign-currency inflows are used\u2014often in cash\u2014and then sold to obtain rubels for everyday expenses. In this sense, a significant portion of the supply may reflect financial strain rather than prosperity, serving as a mechanism for patching budget gaps.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Belarusians earn abroad and spend at home<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Conducting an independent and credible study of currency behavior in Belarus is extremely difficult because of the Belarusian government\u2019s restrictions on surveys. Even if such studies exist, they are unlikely to be public or open to discussion. As a result, analysis must rely on indirect indicators and well-founded hypotheses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>According to UN estimates, about 790,000 Belarusians lived outside Belarus in 2024. With a high degree of probability, this figure did not decline in 2025; more likely, outward migration continued, albeit at a slower pace.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This number represents roughly 9 percent of the population\u2014about one in twelve Belarusians. It is reasonable to assume that migrants send part of their income back home. Surveys by the National Bank of Poland indicate that one-third of Belarusians living in Poland do so. Fifty-nine percent of respondents reported that their most recent transfer amounted to around 1,000 zlotys (approximately $280).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Another important factor is that some Belarusians convert foreign currency savings held in banks into rubels or spend them directly, again increasing rubel liquidity. The incentives are clear: rubel deposits offer significantly higher interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In addition, many Belarusians who remain in the country earn income abroad\u2014for example, through remote work. These earnings also contribute to foreign currency inflows and shape household financial behavior.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>At the household level, the pattern often looks like this: foreign currency earned abroad or withdrawn from foreign-currency accounts is converted into rubels to cover everyday expenses. This, in turn, increases sales of dollars or euros by individuals.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Fragile stability as new normal<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Even if the current configuration of the foreign exchange market appears stable\u2014thanks in part to household behavior\u2014this stability may last only as long as the underlying factors remain in place:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Migration income and cross-border family support depend on labor market conditions, legalization rules and personal strategies in host countries.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The activity of non-residents and \u201cgrey\u201d channels depends on sanctions, controls and transaction costs.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Domestic demand for foreign currency can rise sharply if inflationary, exchange-rate or political expectations change, even if nominal incomes remain high.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Today\u2019s balance in the Belarusian foreign exchange market rests largely on the adaptive behavior of society and the private sector, rather than on the structural strength of the economic model itself.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In this sense, Belarus is experiencing a peculiar form of stability\u2014<strong>sustainable instability<\/strong>: a financial system that continues to function only as long as its fragile but numerous supports remain intact.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"insert-block\">\n\n    <div class=\"insert-block__img\">\n        <img decoding=\"async\" width=\"354\" height=\"236\" src=\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/pozirk_grayscale_blank_1128x752-354x236.jpg\" class=\"attachment-medium size-medium\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/pozirk_grayscale_blank_1128x752-354x236.jpg 354w, https:\/\/pozirk.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/pozirk_grayscale_blank_1128x752-734x490.jpg 734w, https:\/\/pozirk.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/pozirk_grayscale_blank_1128x752-178x118.jpg 178w, https:\/\/pozirk.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/pozirk_grayscale_blank_1128x752-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/pozirk.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/pozirk_grayscale_blank_1128x752.jpg 1128w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 354px) 100vw, 354px\" \/>                        <label class=\"insert-block__tag--mobile\"> \u042d\u043a\u043e\u043d\u043e\u043c\u0438\u043a\u0430<\/label>\n\n                <\/div>\n    <div class=\"insert-block__text\">\n                    <label class=\"insert-block__tag\">\u042d\u043a\u043e\u043d\u043e\u043c\u0438\u043a\u0430<\/label>\n                <h3 class=\"insert-block__title\">Belarusians net sellers of foreign currency in January<\/h3>\n        <div class=\"insert-block__descr\">February 6, Pozirk. Belarusians sold more than $1 billion and bought $995 million worth of foreign cash last month, with net foreign currency sales exceeding purchases by $45 million, according to the National Bank of Belarus. Individuals bought\u00a0 $621 million &#8230;<\/div>\n        <a class=\"insert-block__btn-block\" href=\"\/en\/news\/174546\">\n            <button class=\"btn\">\n                <div class='btn__text'>Read<\/div>\n            <\/button>\n        <\/a>\n    <\/div>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Belarusians have been selling more foreign cash than they buy, effectively becoming a key shock absorber in the country\u2019s financial system. This trend persists despite a significant rise in household incomes. In the past, higher wages often translated into stronger demand for dollars as a form of personal financial insurance. Today, this mechanism no longer [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":46,"featured_media":174821,"template":"","rubric":[22],"class_list":["post-174868","longreads","type-longreads","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v25.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Sustainable instability: Why Belarusians sell foreign cash | Pozirk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Belarusians have been selling more foreign cash than they buy, effectively becoming a key shock absorber in the country\u2019s financial system. 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