The Viewer<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\nOver the past year, Belarus \u2014 both the regime and the pro-democracy forces \u2014 has simultaneously gained and lost agency. This divergence has been shaped primarily by three global players: the United States, Ukraine and Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Following Donald Trump\u2019s return to power in the United States, Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka has been referred to by Washington as the \u201cdeeply respected President of Belarus\u201d (though this characterization does not apply to Congress, and most officials within Trump\u2019s own circle avoid such epithets).<\/p>\n\n\n\n
For a time, the Belarusian ruler even became involved in US\u2013Russia negotiations on Ukraine. In particular, the US leader phoned \u0141uka\u0161enka before his meeting with Vladimir Putin in Anchorage and later invited him to his Board of Peace for Gaza.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Minsk released hundreds of political prisoners in a deal with Washington in exchange for sanctions relief. Against this backdrop, the United States has also maintained ties with Belarus\u2019 pro-democracy forces. However, a meeting between Trump and Cichano\u016dskaja \u2014 who met with previous President Joe Biden \u2014 appears unlikely.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
For its part, Russia has drawn Minsk further into its standoff with the West by deploying (or at least claiming to deploy \u2014 a claim questioned by BelPol) the Oreshnik, an intermediate-range hypersonic ballistic missile, in Belarus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, last month Ukraine signaled a shift in approach by stepping up contacts with Belarus\u2019 pro-democracy forces. President Volodymyr Zelensky has used much harsher rhetoric in his comments on \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s foreign and domestic policies, remarking that the Belarusian leader\u2019s \u201cwhite Spitz has more rights than the Belarusian people.\u201d On January 25 in Vilnius, he met Cichano\u016dskaja face to face for the first time in a formal setting and invited her to Kyiv.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
These developments are unfolding against the backdrop of Trump\u2019s stated desire to end the war in Ukraine as soon as possible, enabling him to approach the fall midterm congressional elections with tangible achievements, as political momentum appears to be shifting. He has exerted significant pressure on Kyiv while displaying a comparatively conciliatory tone toward Moscow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Belarus likely occupies a limited place in Washington\u2019s geopolitical calculations. At the same time, in the eyes of Ukraine and much of Europe (with notable exceptions such as Hungary and Slovakia), the \u0141uka\u0161enka regime is viewed as an important instrument in the Kremlin\u2019s hands \u2014 one that must be neutralized, as attempts to reach accommodations with him have proven futile.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Belarus remains an open staging ground for the Russian army, posing threats not only to its immediate neighbors \u2014 including through the migrant crisis \u2014 but also to more distant Western countries. Moreover, politically motivated repression continues in Belarus. Were it to stop, the system might simply collapse.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In this context, Belarusian pro-democracy forces \u2014 which objectively have limited influence over major geopolitical actors \u2014 are using every available platform to convey the position of those opposed to Belarus being treated as a pawn in Russian President Vladimir Putin\u2019s hands.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Below are Via\u010dorka\u2019s comments to The Viewer<\/em> regarding the opposition delegation\u2019s expectations for Munich.<\/p>\n\n\n\nChallenges-2026: Ukraine, Greenland, Middle East, Iran, Belarus<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
\u201cAlongside the Davos Forum, the Munich Security Conference is one of the most significant forums in the world. From Davos, which took place a month ago, and from Munich, many expect answers about what 2026 may bring \u2014 for Ukraine, Greenland, the Middle East and Iran. We also hope for answers regarding Belarus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThis year, Belarus will receive considerable attention, which is a major achievement of the entire democratic community. If I am not mistaken, for the first time at the MSC, a panel dedicated to our country will be included in the main program. An American senator and the Lithuanian foreign minister will take part. Cichano\u016dskaja has a packed agenda: in addition to the panel, she has more than ten meetings and over 15 interviews scheduled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThere will also be several side events dedicated to Belarus, organized with the participation of Cichano\u016dskaja\u2019s Office and expert centers. In addition to Cichano\u016dskaja, former political prisoners will take part. At one event on Saturday, February 15, Maryja Kale\u015bnikava will speak at the discussion \u2018How to Make Democracies Great Again.\u2019 Siarhiej Cichano\u016dski is also registered as a forum participant.
\u201cBelarusian journalist Hanna Lubakova will speak at the forum\u2019s final panel. This highly prestigious event provides an opportunity to bring the Belarusian agenda to an international audience. The more visible Belarus is, the better for our cause.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Promoting Belarus through security lens<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
\u201cFor us, the most important task is to keep Belarus on the agenda, especially as the fate of Ukraine and the entire region is being decided. We are promoting Belarus specifically through the security dimension \u2014 demonstrating that this is not only a humanitarian crisis, but also a security crisis emanating from the \u0141uka\u0161enka regime. Without democratic change, Belarus will continue to pose a threat to Lithuania, Poland and all NATO countries. Therefore, the issue must be addressed comprehensively. A strategy on Belarus is needed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cWe have brought a number of documents that we will present \u2014 on the regime\u2019s participation in the war, on the deportation of Ukrainian children, on mechanisms for holding the \u0141uka\u0161enka regime accountable and a \u2018red paper\u2019 on Belarus\u2019 security in the context of European security. Many defense ministers and generals will be present, for whom Belarus remains a relatively little-known case that must be better understood.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
De-escalation without losing independence<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
\u201cWe also have documents outlining a vision for how Belarus can contribute to de-escalation without losing its independence, because for us \u2014 as for our European partners \u2014 independence is key. On the one hand, the humanitarian crisis must be resolved, political prisoners released and repression stopped; on the other hand, Belarus must be pulled out of Russia\u2019s grip.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cWhen we first came to Munich four years ago, there was little understanding of what Belarus was. Now that understanding exists, but we need practical joint steps \u2014 a strategy developed together with Western partners.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cIt is important that the voices of former political prisoners be heard \u2014 both Siarhiej Cichano\u016dski and Maryja Kale\u015bnikava, who endured torture \u2014 so they can speak personally about the \u0141uka\u0161enka regime from the inside.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThis is also an opportunity to draw attention to Belarus. At a time when the world is facing so many crises, this is extremely important.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Stopping Russia<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
\u201cI believe the central theme of many discussions will be how to stop Russia. We explain that Belarus is also key in this regard. We see the activity of Russia\u2019s Foreign Intelligence Service and threats coming from Russian officials, politicians and diplomats. They have seized Belarus and do not want any change in our country. But it is not Russia\u2019s place to decide Belarus\u2019 future. We would like the world to see Belarus not as \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s regime subordinate to Putin, but as a nation of people who want to live in freedom. We need to shape these perceptions.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Highlighting challenges emanating from \u0141uka\u0161enka<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
\u201cWe are pleased that there will be many events with Ukrainians. It is very important that President Zelensky and the Ukrainian leadership have begun paying increased attention to Belarus in the security context.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cOur task is also to demonstrate the military preparations related to the Oreshnik system and Russian nuclear weapons. This is not a bluff; it is a real risk, because infrastructure dangerous to many European capitals has been created in Belarus. Even if there are no nuclear warheads or Oreshnik missiles there at present, that does not mean they cannot appear, since the necessary infrastructure is already in place.
\u201c\u0141uka\u0161enka now appears to be in the shadows, barely visible and attempting to maneuver, but we need to shine a light on what is happening in Belarus. This is not only about Russia\u2019s quiet expansion, but also about the buildup of military potential and presence that threatens Belarusians themselves and Europe as a whole.\u201d
<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Cichano\u016dskaja\u2019s program in Munich<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Participation in the discussion \u201cBelarus in the Spotlight\u201d; meetings with MSC young leaders, NATO officials, Czech Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Petr Machinka, UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker T\u00fcrk, and members of the European Parliament; interviews with The Times<\/em>, The Telegraph<\/em> (UK), Rzeczpospolita<\/em> (Poland), Dagens Nyheter<\/em> (Sweden), CBS News<\/em>, Politico<\/em> (USA) and Die Welt<\/em> (Germany).<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"By Viktar Ivicki The 62nd Munich Security Conference (MSC) will take place from February 13 to 15, with Belarusian opposition leader \u015aviat\u0142ana Cichano\u016dskaja in attendance. She will participate in the discussion \u201cBelarus in the Spotlight,\u201d scheduled for February 14. This marks the first time Belarus has been included in the MSC\u2019s main program, Franak Via\u010dorka, […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":83,"featured_media":66699,"template":"","rubric":[24],"class_list":["post-175477","longreads","type-longreads","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n
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