{"id":175908,"date":"2026-02-16T20:46:25","date_gmt":"2026-02-16T17:46:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/175908\/"},"modified":"2026-04-15T13:35:32","modified_gmt":"2026-04-15T13:35:32","slug":"brilliant-strategy-but-obscure-tactics-what-is-wrong-with-top-female-politicians-messages","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/175908\/","title":{"rendered":"Brilliant strategy but obscure tactics: what is wrong with top female politicians\u2019 messages?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

\u015aviat\u0142ana Cichano\u016dskaja and Maryja Kale\u015bnikava met during the Munich Security Conference in Germany this weekend. Belarus\u2019 prominent female opposition politicians are advancing different agendas: Cichano\u016dskaja calls for tighter sanctions to force the Belarusian ruler to ease repression, while Kale\u015bnikava seeks engagement with Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka to secure the release of political prisoners.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n \"\"\n
\n \n
\n (Pictures: Cichano\u016dskaja's office, pixabay.com\/Pozirk's collage)<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/figcaption>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Kale\u015bnikava lacks strategic clarity<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

In a recent interview, Kale\u015bnikava said she wanted to see progress toward a free, democratic, open, modern and IT-developed country. That was essentially all she said about strategy in her public appearances after her release from prison in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kale\u015bnikava described herself as a political activist rather than a politician. She said that the release of political prisoners, an end to repression and an end to Belarus\u2019 isolation are steps that would bring the country closer to the goal she outlined.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Saving Belarusians at any cost<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka released dozens of political prisoners in exchange for sanctions relief under agreements with Washington. However, he forced those released, including Kale\u015bnikava, into exile. The freed prisoners have not been exonerated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Moreover, politically motivated arrests continue. Kale\u015bnikava has made it clear that she does not know how to force \u0141uka\u0161enka to end repression. That, she argues, is why it is necessary to engage with him and understand what he wants in return.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, the Belarusian ruler does not appear to be in a position to scale down repression, as he fears his regime would collapse without it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kale\u015bnikava has said she wants to save as many prisoners as possible. Critics, however, argue that saving hostages at any cost is not a viable strategy as long as \u0141uka\u0161enka continues to take new hostages.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Europe\u2019s tough stance<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Lithuanian Foreign Minister K\u0119stutis Budrys, speaking in Munich at a panel discussion with Cichano\u016dskaja, pointed out that Minsk sees normalization \u201cin an absolutely opposite way to what we would expect.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He expressed hope that Washington, which initiated engagement with the Belarusian ruler, would be able to end this vicious circle \u2014 \u201cthese returns and returns [of opposition activists to prison].\u201d Budrys advised Washington to use sticks more actively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWe have enough reasons to maintain sanctions,\u201d he said. \u201cI cannot imagine how we can review them without \u0141uka\u0161enka fundamentally changing his behavior and without him being held accountable.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This position is generally upheld by the EU. Brussels is reluctant to engage with Minsk as long as it continues to support Russia\u2019s war of aggression against Ukraine. Still, some diplomatic contacts are taking place.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Minsk has confirmed that Brice Roquefeuil, director for continental Europe at the French foreign ministry, visited the Belarusian capital on February 5\u20136. A high-ranking German diplomat reportedly visited Belarus in October last year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Life is more complicated than political declarations<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

In Munich, Cichano\u016dskaja encouraged Washington to continue working toward the release of political prisoners, while Europe, she said, should maintain sanctions to bring about meaningful political change in Belarus. It should be noted that EU sanctions have a greater impact on Belarus than US measures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Cichano\u016dskaja also warned that humanitarian efforts to secure prisoners\u2019 release should not lead to recognition of the regime.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Recognition is a major incentive for \u0141uka\u0161enka, and real progress may not be possible without concessions in this area. In 2022, for instance, the Belarusian ruler released Natalla Hersche, a Swiss citizen, after Switzerland agreed to send an ambassador to Belarus. US envoy John Coale secured the release of 123 prisoners, including Kale\u015bnikava, in December and 51 prisoners in September after Trump had sent a cordial birthday message to \u0141uka\u0161enka.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Is there a middle ground?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

So far, Kale\u015bnikava has offered little in terms of a concrete strategy in her public interviews. Instead, she has appealed to \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s wisdom and referred to his family\u2019s interests \u2014 which have definitely little to do with fair elections or dismantling dictatorship.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Cichano\u016dskaja, by contrast, has a clear strategy: sanctions and sustained pressure on the regime until it collapses or embarks on a path toward democracy. However, it remains unclear how these goals can be achieved without flexible and workable tactics, what the concrete steps would be, and whether change is possible without negotiations with the authorities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The democratic forces did propose a roundtable with the authorities, but \u0141uka\u0161enka has consistently ruled out any negotiations with the opposition.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A group of Belarusian experts has developed a road map for de-escalation between Minsk and the EU, but it has been largely ignored by Brussels and the Cichano\u016dskaja camp.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Asked during the panel discussion when change might become possible in Belarus, the opposition leader said that a window of opportunity is primarily connected to the outcome of the war in Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWhen Ukraine wins, it will weaken Russia. A weaker Russia means a weaker \u0141uka\u0161enka.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Ukraine is struggling to hold its ground, and its victory is not predetermined, as it is fighting an empire with far greater resources, including nuclear weapons.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, political prisoners in Belarusian prisons face torture and mistreatment every day.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Cichano\u016dskaja has a clear and cohesive strategy, but questions remain about her tactics. Some observers accuse her of sacrificing prisoners for the sake of larger ideals.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kale\u015bnikava, for her part, wants to secure prisoners\u2019 release immediately but has not articulated a plan to stop \u0141uka\u0161enka from taking new prisoners or to compel him to reform his authoritarian system.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Is there a middle ground between these two approaches? And will the two tracks ultimately conflict with each other?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n
\n \"\"