{"id":177133,"date":"2026-02-25T16:23:45","date_gmt":"2026-02-25T13:23:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/177133\/"},"modified":"2026-03-09T20:10:49","modified_gmt":"2026-03-09T20:10:49","slug":"government-looking-to-use-central-banks-safety-cushion-for-investment-lending-expansion","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/177133\/","title":{"rendered":"Government looking to use central bank\u2019s safety cushion for investment lending expansion"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong>Belarus\u2019 banking system performed well in 2025, preventing national currency depreciation, maintaining liquidity and reducing non-performing assets. The National Bank of Belarus (NBB) increased foreign exchange reserves to a record level. Yet this stability carries risks: it creates a temptation for the government to solve economic problems at the expense of the banks\u2014thereby undermining the long-term financial sustainability that made last year\u2019s results possible.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"block-image block-image-normal\">\n\n    <img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1128\" height=\"752\" src=\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/bank_collage_pozirk.jpg\" class=\"attachment-full size-full\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/bank_collage_pozirk.jpg 1128w, https:\/\/pozirk.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/bank_collage_pozirk-354x236.jpg 354w, https:\/\/pozirk.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/bank_collage_pozirk-734x490.jpg 734w, https:\/\/pozirk.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/bank_collage_pozirk-178x118.jpg 178w, https:\/\/pozirk.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/bank_collage_pozirk-768x512.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1128px) 100vw, 1128px\" \/>\n    <figcaption>\n        \n                    <div class=\"block-image__author\">\n                                <span>(Pozirk&#039;s collage)<\/span>\n            <\/div>\n            <\/figcaption>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Decent financial performance<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Data on Belarus\u2019 financial sector performance last year, as presented by the NBB, testify to the resilience of the banking system\u2014and the financial sector as a whole. It supported economic growth and capital expenditures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Reserves have long been perceived in Belarus as the key indicator of \u201cstrength.\u201d Foreign exchange reserves rose to $14.4 billion on January 1, far surpassing the central bank\u2019s cautious target of $7.1 billion. The NBB emphasized that reserves exceeded the equivalent of three months of imports for the first time, noting that the increase was driven not only by gold appreciation but also by net foreign currency purchases on the domestic market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-wp-embed is-provider-flourish wp-block-embed-flourish\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe class=\"wp-embedded-content\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" title=\"Interactive or visual content\" src=\"https:\/\/flo.uri.sh\/visualisation\/27791302\/embed#?secret=2To6jYhxVh\" data-secret=\"2To6jYhxVh\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" height=\"575\" width=\"500\"><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The overall domestic financial environment also appears orderly: non-performing bank assets stood at about 2.2 percent\u2014well below the 10-percent ceiling\u2014while excess liquidity is estimated at around 2 billion rubels, enough to ensure settlements and avoid sharp interest-rate spikes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The year was also notable for de-dollarization. The rubel\u2019s share in broad money rose to 65.6 percent, and the foreign exchange market recorded a net currency supply exceeding $1 billion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Lucky confluence<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>The NBB\u2019s rosy picture creates the impression that stability resulted from high-quality management. Yet reports suggest that 2025 was less a breakthrough and more a favorable confluence of circumstances.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Inflation of 6.8 percent was only slightly above the 5 percent target, largely because it slowed considerably in the second half of the year. The NBB attributed this trend to slower price growth in Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The NBB\u2019s report notes that a foreign trade deficit is not a significant risk as long as there is a surplus in foreign trade payments, which ensures an inflow of foreign currency into reserves. This cushion is important, but conditions may worsen if external restrictions tighten. So far, developments have followed a less favorable scenario for Belarus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The \u201csuccesses\u201d of the real sector also appear ambiguous. Corporate and net profits grew\u2014but, according to the NBB, the increase in absolute terms was almost entirely spent on building up inventories. In other words, goods were produced, but selling the output remains problematic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">2026: banks as investor of last resort<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>In 2026, the NBB plans to expand long-term investment lending and improve \u201cthe efficiency of credit allocation.\u201d Banks are explicitly described as the mechanism that must finance enterprises and investment projects in line with state priorities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On the surface, this seems logical. In 2025, investment financing was already a driver: it increased by 50 percent to nearly 7 billion rubels, and banks\u2019 contribution to companies\u2019 capital expenditures rose to about 15 percent\u2014the highest proportion in many years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, once the government treats a one-off positive trend as the basis for a systemic program and extends it into 2026 as an obligation, banks cease to function as financial intermediaries and instead become instruments of quasi-budgetary policy. Their funds effectively become a government resource.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Authorities have already set targets for further growth in investment lending and expect accelerated growth in long-term deposits, treating public trust in the banking system as a given. In practice, this resembles an attempt to mobilize domestic resources and channel them into investments deemed \u201ccorrect\u201d by the authorities. Yet foreign or private investors previously declined to finance such plans\u2014apparently lacking confidence in their profitability.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">It doesn\u2019t take much skill to waste financial resources<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>It is a dangerous illusion to believe that reserves and liquidity can be painlessly converted into an investment surge. Yes, international reserves have grown; yes, liquidity is sufficient; yes, non-performing assets are low. But financial stability is not a warehouse from which funds can be taken in sacks. It is a system of balances in which every change carries a cost.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If in 2026 banks begin financing projects with lower expected returns, the financial system will suffer. Such an approach may enrich certain businesses and even enable officials to report GDP growth: workshops are built, equipment installed and wages paid. But when it comes time to sell the output, the picture may look different\u2014losses, rising overdue debt and requests for government support.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Thus, the planned expansion of investment lending is a political wager\u2014less on efficiency than on the hope of \u201cgetting through a tough year,\u201d once again postponing structural problems. Instead of maintaining the safety cushion and carefully selecting projects, the authorities appear ready to replace investment discipline with directives.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The goal risks becoming little more than splashing cash on chronically inefficient enterprises and presenting investment as growth. This is how zombie investments emerge\u2014funding projects destined not to pay off: a second nuclear power plant (or another unit at the existing one), a new bus factory or a pulp and cardboard mill.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Belarus\u2019 financial system did indeed show in 2025 a combination rare in recent years: growth, exchange-rate stability, manageable inflation, high liquidity and a buildup of foreign exchange reserves. But these achievements owed more to favorable circumstances than to strong structural performance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If the government yields to the temptation to use the reserves and banking liquidity accumulated last year for large-scale, state-directed investment lending, Belarus may see a familiar outcome: short-term relief followed by long-term costs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In the past, such decisions sometimes met opposition even within the system. Now, however, amid a shortage of qualified personnel\u2014where loyalty appears to outweigh competence\u2014there may be no one left willing or able to dissuade top officials from pursuing this course.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"insert-block\">\n\n    <div class=\"insert-block__img\">\n        <img decoding=\"async\" width=\"354\" height=\"236\" src=\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/raznos-prav_collage_pozirk-354x236.jpg\" class=\"attachment-medium size-medium\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/raznos-prav_collage_pozirk-354x236.jpg 354w, https:\/\/pozirk.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/raznos-prav_collage_pozirk-734x490.jpg 734w, https:\/\/pozirk.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/raznos-prav_collage_pozirk-178x118.jpg 178w, https:\/\/pozirk.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/raznos-prav_collage_pozirk-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/pozirk.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/raznos-prav_collage_pozirk.jpg 1128w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 354px) 100vw, 354px\" \/>                        <label class=\"insert-block__tag--mobile\"> The Viewer<\/label>\n\n                <\/div>\n    <div class=\"insert-block__text\">\n                    <label class=\"insert-block__tag\">The Viewer<\/label>\n                <h3 class=\"insert-block__title\">Scapegoats chosen: \u0141uka\u0161enka takes prime minister to task<\/h3>\n        <div class=\"insert-block__descr\">Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka last week publicly reprimanded Prime Minister Alaksandar Tur\u010dyn over the country\u2019s weak economic performance in 2025. The criticism came despite reported GDP growth of 1.3 percent and a 9.6 percent rise in household incomes. The Belarusian ruler argued &#8230;<\/div>\n        <a class=\"insert-block__btn-block\" href=\"\/en\/longreads\/176875\">\n            <button class=\"btn\">\n                <div class='btn__text'>Read <\/div>\n            <\/button>\n        <\/a>\n    <\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Belarus\u2019 banking system performed well in 2025, preventing national currency depreciation, maintaining liquidity and reducing non-performing assets. The National Bank of Belarus (NBB) increased foreign exchange reserves to a record level. Yet this stability carries risks: it creates a temptation for the government to solve economic problems at the expense of the banks\u2014thereby undermining the [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":83,"featured_media":177047,"template":"","rubric":[24],"class_list":["post-177133","longreads","type-longreads","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v25.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Government looking to use central bank\u2019s safety cushion for investment lending expansion | Pozirk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Belarus\u2019 banking system performed well in 2025, preventing national currency depreciation, maintaining liquidity and reducing non-performing assets. 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