{"id":178221,"date":"2026-03-05T17:03:42","date_gmt":"2026-03-05T14:03:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/178221\/"},"modified":"2026-04-15T13:35:32","modified_gmt":"2026-04-15T13:35:32","slug":"lukasenka-cautiously-backs-iran-avoiding-direct-jabs-at-trump","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/178221\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0141uka\u0161enka cautiously backs Iran, avoiding direct jabs at Trump"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

It took Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka almost five days to react to Israeli and US attacks on Iran that killed top leaders, including the longtime supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Israel\u2019s \u201ctreacherous attack on Iran, supported by the United States,\u201d is unacceptable for Belarus, the Belarusian ruler told Iranian Ambassador Alireza Sanei at their meeting in Minsk on March 4.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n \"\"\n
\n \n
\n (Pictures from iran.ru, the websites of the White House and the Belarusian leader\/Pozirk's collage) <\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/figcaption>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

It should be noted that \u0141uka\u0161enka carefully muted his criticism of the United States, assigning it a secondary role, although global media have described the attack as Donald Trump\u2019s war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to reports, it was the US president who gave the green light for the operation, while intelligence about the meeting of the supreme leader and his top advisers was provided to Washington by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Have Belarus\u2019 road cameras been hacked already?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The technical precision of this Israeli-US operation, much like January\u2019s capture of Venezuela\u2019s Nicol\u00e1s Maduro, must have impressed the Belarusian autocrat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He has repeatedly emphasized the importance of fitness and regular training at meetings with his security officers. But chin-ups can hardly help against enemies\u2019 new secret weapons.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trump touted what he called the Discombobulator, a secret weapon allegedly used to disable Venezuelan military equipment and infrastructure during the January 2026 operation. Reports suggest it may have simultaneously disabled electronics and caused physiological effects on personnel, similar to mechanisms studied in connection with \u201cHavana Syndrome.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Wall Street Journal<\/em> reported that the capture of the Venezuelan ruler was assisted by AI Claude. Not surprisingly, \u0141uka\u0161enka distrusts AI.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Financial Times<\/em> reported that before the attack on Khamenei, Israel\u2019s secret services reportedly tracked his movements using hacked road cameras and artificial intelligence. Perhaps someone is already watching \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s movements in the same way.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Washington has little incentive to target \u0141uka\u0161enka personally. Moscow, on the other hand, is certainly interested in learning more details about the Belarusian ruler\u2019s life.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Not sorry for Ukrainian children<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

At his meeting with the Iranian ambassador, \u0141uka\u0161enka sang praises to Khamenei, describing him as \u201ca humanist, a non-military man who worked to defend his people and his state.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

To present a fuller picture, it should be added that this \u201chumanist\u201d called the United States \u201cthe Great Satan\u201d and Israel a \u201ccancerous tumor\u201d that \u201cwill undoubtedly be uprooted and destroyed.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka expressed condolences over the deaths of Iranian civilians and children in the strikes. During the four years of Russian bombings of Ukraine, he has never offered condolences for the deaths of Ukrainian children.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

His phrase \u201ca treacherous attack\u201d could also accurately describe the Russian onslaught on Ukraine in February 2022, including the advance launched from Belarusian territory.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Therefore, his remarks smack of hypocrisy, although he instinctively sympathizes with punished dictators, projecting their misfortune onto himself.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Why is the Iranian regime so resilient?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The attack on Iran must have prompted \u0141uka\u0161enka to reflect on the durability of his own system. The ayatollah regime has shown remarkable resilience despite attacks by superior forces.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The assassination of several top leaders and commanders, including Khamenei, failed to spark mass protests or paralyze the government. On the contrary, it continues to fight back.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite the supreme leader\u2019s enormous influence, the Iranian regime is not a purely personalist dictatorship.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The supreme leader is elected and can be dismissed by the Assembly of Experts \u2013 88 clerics elected in public elections, though candidates are vetted by the Guardian Council.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Iran\u2019s Guardian Council is a powerful 12-member constitutional body that ensures legislation aligns with Islamic law and the constitution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The country\u2019s president has fairly extensive powers, while parliament also retains meaningful authority. The judiciary is formally independent of the president and ultimately answers to the supreme leader.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Iran also maintains a separate military force, the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, which can defend the supreme leader if the regular army turns against him.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Power in Iran is distributed among several branches and institutions. The country has a number of powerful actors, which adds to its resilience in times of crisis. Add ideology and religious zeal to the mix, and you get a nut that is tough to crack.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s system hanging by a thread<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By contrast, in Belarus the entire system revolves around \u0141uka\u0161enka, who has concentrated all significant powers in his own hands. Other branches of government have little real influence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The country has no genuine political class or ruling elite. \u0141uka\u0161enka himself has repeatedly said that he is the only politician in the country. The government has also failed to invent an ideology it can convincingly sell to the masses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

His system is hanging on a single nail. If the Kremlin decides to replace him with someone else, analysts believe it could attempt to do so with the help of a special operation. Whether his generals would defend him remains a big question.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n
\n \"\"