{"id":183511,"date":"2026-04-13T21:15:49","date_gmt":"2026-04-13T18:15:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/183511\/"},"modified":"2026-04-15T13:35:32","modified_gmt":"2026-04-15T13:35:32","slug":"orbans-defeat-is-a-blow-to-lukasenka","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/183511\/","title":{"rendered":"Orb\u00e1n\u2019s defeat bodes ill for \u0141uka\u0161enka"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\n\n \"\"\n
\n
\n\n \u0141uka\u0161enka presents Orb\u00e1n with a national soccer team jersey in Minsk on June 5, 2020\n <\/div>\n \n
\n (Belarusian leader's press office)<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/figcaption>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka has congratulated P\u00e9ter Magyar of Hungary\u2019s Tisza Party on his victory in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election. However, he can hardly be pleased by Viktor Orb\u00e1n\u2019s defeat after 16 years in power. Hungary may now align its policy toward Belarus more closely with that of the European Union.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Under Orb\u00e1n, Budapest maintained contacts with Minsk, defying Brussels\u2019 decision to limit high-level engagement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWe don\u2019t like sanctions,\u201d Hungarian Foreign Minister P\u00e9ter Szijj\u00e1rt\u00f3 said during his visit to Minsk in October 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He traveled to Belarus at least four times after the \u0141uka\u0161enka regime facilitated Russia\u2019s attack on Ukraine in 2022. Szijj\u00e1rt\u00f3 has been accused of sharing EU classified documents with Moscow and may face legal action.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Minsk trumpeted its contacts with Budapest<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Orb\u00e1n visited Belarus in June 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic, but neither he nor \u0141uka\u0161enka wore face masks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Belarusian ruler suggested that Belarus should double its annual trade with Hungary to \u20ac500 million. In 2023, however, bilateral trade fell to $138.8 million, according to TradeMap.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka told Szijj\u00e1rt\u00f3 in October 2023 that trade was decreasing \u201cnot through our fault.\u201d \u201cYou know the reason,\u201d he added, referring to EU sanctions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hungary failed to persuade the EU to ease its sanctions against Belarus. Orb\u00e1n\u2019s policy was primarily aimed at securing EU funding for Hungary in exchange for his support for EU sanctions. Notably, Belarus listed Hungary among \u201cunfriendly countries.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Minsk derived propaganda benefits from its public contacts with Hungarian officials. In September 2023, Hungarian Ambassador Zita Ilona Bencsik presented her credentials to \u0141uka\u0161enka.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hungary was the first EU country to do so after the 2020 presidential election, which was marred by allegations of vote rigging.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Minsk made the most of Hungary\u2019s diplomatic move, pointing out that not all countries in Europe supported sanctions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe visit by the minister of foreign affairs and external trade of Hungary to Belarus once again demonstrates that there are forces\u2014and, most importantly, leaders in Europe\u2014who objectively assess the situation,\u201d said Belarusian Foreign Minister Maksim Ry\u017eanko\u016d in September last year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Minsk loses another ally in Europe<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Minsk is looking for partners in Europe to help negotiate significant sanctions relief. The United States\u2019 decision to lift 80 percent of sanctions in exchange for the release of hundreds of political prisoners is clearly not enough.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Belarus\u2019 national airline Bie\u0142avia still cannot operate flights to Europe, while Bie\u0142aruskalij is not allowed to export its fertilizers through the Lithuanian port of Klaip\u0117da. Trade between Belarus and the EU declined sharply after the 2020 crackdown on peaceful protests and the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka is eager to unfreeze relations with Europe and has asked his US negotiators for assistance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

John Coale, the US special envoy for Belarus, has already stated publicly that he would like Lithuania to allow Belarusian potash transit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Through his diplomats, \u0141uka\u0161enka is attempting to identify weak links in Europe. Minsk had hoped for support from Orb\u00e1n, Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico (Slovak Ambassador Jozef Miga\u0161 returned to Minsk last year), and possibly Czechia\u2019s Andrej Babi\u0161.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Orb\u00e1n\u2019s defeat is a major setback in that effort.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ukraine aid<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Commentators expect that Hungary\u2019s new government will approve the EU\u2019s \u20ac90 billion aid package for Ukraine, which had also been blocked by Bratislava. P\u00e9ter Magyar has promised better relations with the EU.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If Ukraine receives the aid, it will be better equipped to strike its occupiers. Consequently, the Kremlin would have fewer resources to support its Belarusian ally. This would not be good news for \u0141uka\u0161enka.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Orb\u00e1n\u2019s defeat is also a psychological blow to the Belarusian strongman. He has lost several other allies this year, including Nicol\u00e1s Maduro and Ali Khamenei.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka has congratulated P\u00e9ter Magyar of Hungary\u2019s Tisza Party on his victory in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election. However, he can hardly be pleased by Viktor Orb\u00e1n\u2019s defeat after 16 years in power. Hungary may now align its policy toward Belarus more closely with that of the European Union. Under Orb\u00e1n, Budapest maintained contacts […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":183444,"template":"","rubric":[38,24],"class_list":["post-183511","longreads","type-longreads","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","rubric-elections","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nOrb\u00e1n\u2019s defeat bodes ill for \u0141uka\u0161enka | Pozirk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka has congratulated P\u00e9ter Magyar of Hungary\u2019s Tisza Party on his victory in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election. 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