{"id":185744,"date":"2026-04-30T15:36:38","date_gmt":"2026-04-30T12:36:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/185744\/"},"modified":"2026-04-30T15:37:12","modified_gmt":"2026-04-30T12:37:12","slug":"kremlin-watches-moscow-unlikely-to-let-lukasenka-reset-relations-with-warsaw","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/185744\/","title":{"rendered":"Kremlin watches: Moscow unlikely to let \u0141uka\u0161enka reset relations with Warsaw"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The release of journalist Andrzej Poczobut (Andrej Pa\u010dobut) on April 28 gives Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka an opportunity to improve relations with Warsaw. But this is a thorny path.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Polish Foreign Minister Rados\u0142aw Sikorski expressed hope for a reset in relations with Minsk at a news conference in Warsaw on April 28.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWe are always ready to respond to positive gestures, but Belarus should first wish to become a member of the European family of nations,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

John Coale, the US special envoy for Belarus who played a key role in negotiating the exchange, noted in an interview with Reuters<\/em> that \u0141uka\u0161enka wants Belarus to be \u201ca member of the European family of nations.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Belarusian autocrat dislikes Europe<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Coale often speaks highly of \u0141uka\u0161enka to encourage him to make further political concessions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In reality, the Belarusian strongman has no intention of leading his country toward the European Union and has repeatedly spoken of European values with derision. On one occasion, he described Europe as \u201cstinky.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He has also demonized Polish leaders, accusing unnamed officials of seeking to seize half of Belarus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nevertheless, he is seeking to restore economic ties with Europe, which were disrupted by the disputed 2020 presidential election and the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He wants Europe to ease its sanctions on Belarus and help reduce the country\u2019s heavy economic dependence on Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Warsaw plays a key role in shaping the EU\u2019s policies toward Belarus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

China is also particularly interested in improved relations between Minsk and Warsaw to ensure the smooth operation of its rail transit route running through Belarus and Poland. Last year, Chinese officials made cautious attempts to ease tensions between the two neighbors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Minsk has already made some concessions to Warsaw. In particular, attempts by undocumented third-country migrants to cross the border from Belarus into Poland have decreased sharply since the two sides began talks on a prisoner exchange in September 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Belarus also moved last year\u2019s military maneuvers with Russia, Zapad-2025, farther away from its border with Poland.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Why Pa\u010dobut was not released last fall<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

However, attempts to reset relations may face significant obstacles.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pa\u010dobut hopes to return to Belarus one day and has said that Belarusian officials assured him he could do so. However, such assurances do not guarantee he would be allowed to re-enter the country. Even if he were permitted to return, he could still face political persecution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to \u0141uka\u0161enka, Minsk was ready to release Pa\u010dobut last fall, but the deal collapsed. Gazeta Wyborcza<\/em> claims the agreement fell through due to opposition from Moscow, which views Minsk\u2019s dealings with Warsaw as a sign of excessive independence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov reportedly personally ordered Minsk to halt the exchange during his visit on October 27\u201328. \u0141uka\u0161enka announced the collapse of the deal on October 31, accusing Warsaw of failing to meet its terms, including by closing the border with Belarus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kremlin interest in the exchange<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Moscow may have eventually approved the exchange because it involved Russian nationals, including Aleksandr Butyagin, a Russian archaeologist arrested at Ukraine\u2019s request over excavations in annexed Crimea, and a woman identified as Nina Popova. Butyagin was freed shortly before his extradition to Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gazeta Wyborcza<\/em> suggested that Popova is the wife of a Russian intelligence officer arrested in Moldova on espionage charges.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Moldova, in turn, released Alexandru B\u0103lan, a former deputy head of its Intelligence and Security Service, who had been sentenced earlier this month to 18 months in prison for allegedly leaking classified information related to Romania to officers of Belarus\u2019 Committee for State Security (KGB).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some media outlets identified another released individual as Anuar Bakibai, a former aide to the military attach\u00e9 of the Kazakh embassy in Ukraine who allegedly spied for the Kremlin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Belarus in imperial claws<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The exchange\u2014apparently indirectly facilitated by Russia\u2014which could contribute to improved ties between Minsk and Warsaw, appears to be more an exception to the Kremlin\u2019s general rule of keeping Belarus on a short leash.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Kremlin is not interested in Belarus mending ties with Europe. The more isolated Belarus becomes, the easier it is for Moscow to erode its sovereignty.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Moscow closely monitors Minsk to prevent any rapprochement with the West.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additional obstacles to engagement include \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s anti-Western views and his reliance on repression to maintain power. As a result, a reset in relations with Poland appears highly unlikely\u2014despite the potential benefits for both countries and for Belarus\u2019 European aspirations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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