{"id":187515,"date":"2026-05-14T16:47:01","date_gmt":"2026-05-14T13:47:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/187515\/"},"modified":"2026-05-14T16:47:04","modified_gmt":"2026-05-14T13:47:04","slug":"minsk-appears-to-be-preparing-for-prisoner-swap-with-lithuania","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/187515\/","title":{"rendered":"Minsk appears to be preparing for prisoner swap with Lithuania"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Belarus\u2019 ONT<\/em> television network on May 12 aired a report about an alleged Lithuanian spy arrested in Belarus two years ago and convicted in March. The broadcast may signal that Minsk is preparing a prisoner exchange with Lithuania. Miroslavas Trockis was arrested in November 2024 and sentenced in March this year to 15 years in prison on espionage charges.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\n (\u0141uka\u0161enka's site, ONT\/Pozirk's collage)<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/figcaption>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Belarusian-Lithuanian tensions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Minsk has sought political engagement with Vilnius, but Lithuanian President Gitanas Naus\u0117da has said that no contacts will take place unless Belarus cracks down on irregular migration and cigarette smuggling operations using weather balloons, and resolves the issue of Lithuanian trucks stranded in Belarus after last year\u2019s border closures. He pointed out that Lithuania should be able to observe change in these areas at least for a month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although most of the trucks have now returned to Lithuania, irregular migration and balloon incursions continue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In April, Lithuania recorded three times as many undocumented migrants as in March. On May 8, Lithuanian border guards apprehended 18 undocumented migrants from Afghanistan and Sri Lanka who had crossed from Belarus through an underground tunnel.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Weather balloons also continued to disrupt operations at Vilnius International Airport, most recently on May 13.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lithuania has described both irregular migration and cigarette-carrying weather balloons as forms of \u201chybrid\u201d attack.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vilnius was further angered by Minsk\u2019s decision to designate Vilnius-based European Humanities University an extremist organization. Lithuanian politicians currently see no preconditions for engagement with Belarus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka pinning hopes on Coale<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Minsk has failed to meet most of Naus\u0117da\u2019s conditions, possibly hoping that the United States will pressure Vilnius into dialogue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

US officials have reportedly expressed interest in purchasing Belarusian potash fertilizers. Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka, who appears to be seeking a broader deal with US President Donald Trump, likely does not want to concede to Naus\u0117da, whom he seems to regard as a relatively minor obstacle to his plans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

US Special Envoy John Coale is expected to visit Minsk again soon. He has reportedly been negotiating with the Belarusian strongman behind the scenes for some time, and the two have repeatedly met in Minsk over dinner. \u0141uka\u0161enka may have sought the US diplomat\u2019s assistance in persuading Lithuania to lift its ban on Belarusian potash transit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Coale has reportedly urged Vilnius to engage with Minsk to resolve the issue. The US envoy usually travels to the Lithuanian capital after talks with \u0141uka\u0161enka to meet Lithuanian leaders.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vilnius, however, has so far been reluctant to make concessions. It remains unclear how important Belarusian fertilizers are to the United States and whether Washington is prepared to pressure Lithuania significantly. \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s strategy may therefore fail.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Exchange as Leverage<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

If US pressure proves ineffective, Minsk may try to engage Lithuania by offering a spy exchange, as it recently did with Poland. Such a deal would likely involve no political concessions \u2014 only a transactional exchange of prisoners. Belarusian and Lithuanian intelligence services may already have discussed possible arrangements. Both countries hold prisoners who could potentially be exchanged.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to human rights defenders, Belarus is also holding Sergei Botvich, a Lithuanian and French national sentenced to 13 years in prison on espionage charges in 2022. Human rights groups consider both Botvich and Trockis political prisoners. Lithuanian diplomats say Belarus currently holds eight Lithuanian citizens.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lithuania, meanwhile, is holding Mantas Danielius, who was sentenced to nine years in prison for allegedly spying for Belarus. Danielius has appealed to Lithuanian authorities to exchange him for Lithuanians imprisoned in Belarus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In April, Lithuanian media reported that 13 people, including Belarusian and Russian nationals, had been charged with plotting political assassinations allegedly ordered by Russia\u2019s Main Intelligence Directorate. By releasing suspected Russian agents, \u0141uka\u0161enka could also do a favor for his Russian \u201colder brother.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Human trafficking as political leverage<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Belarusian regime has repeatedly used detained individuals as diplomatic and political leverage.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Last month, Minsk released prominent journalist Andrej Pa\u010dobut (Andrzej Poczobut), of Polish descent, along with four other prisoners, including at least two suspected Polish spies, in exchange for five prisoners released by Warsaw, among them Russian nationals. After the swap, Poland\u2019s foreign minister expressed hope for a reset in relations with Minsk, while stressing that \u0141uka\u0161enka would need to take further steps. Therefore, Minsk secured concessions without easing political repression at home.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Another tactic frequently employed by \u0141uka\u0161enka is to escalate tensions to the point where a limited de-escalation can later be presented as a major concession. For example, in November he effectively held more than 1,000 Lithuanian trucks hostage before later portraying himself as benevolent when he authorized their release months afterward.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Similarly, he may be hoping that even limited efforts to curb irregular migration or take half-hearted action against cigarette smugglers could be enough for Vilnius to begin discussing a possible reset in relations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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