{"id":188009,"date":"2026-05-18T18:27:46","date_gmt":"2026-05-18T15:27:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/188009\/"},"modified":"2026-05-18T18:27:48","modified_gmt":"2026-05-18T15:27:48","slug":"kyiv-turns-up-the-heat-on-lukasenka-with-new-warnings-and-threats","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/188009\/","title":{"rendered":"Kyiv turns up the heat on \u0141uka\u0161enka with new warnings and threats"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Robert Brovdi, commander of Ukraine\u2019s Unmanned Systems Forces, issued Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka two warnings within four days. Commenting on a drone attack on Moscow, he advised the Belarusian strongman to stay alert. In a separate interview on May 16, Brovdi, also known by his call sign Madyar, threatened retaliation against \u0141uka\u0161enka for allowing Russian attack drones to fly over Belarus.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n \"\"\n
\n \n
\n (Wikimedia Commons, news.by \/ Pozirk's collage)<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/figcaption>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Ukraine\u2019s psychological pressure on Putin\u2019s ally<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently said that Ukrainian intelligence had reported new attempts by Moscow to persuade \u0141uka\u0161enka to \u201cjoin new Russian aggressive operations\u201d and warned the Belarusian ruler against doing so.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On May 15, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha stated that Vladimir Putin, Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka, and others have \u201call got their ticket to The Hague\u201d and would \u201cgo down in history as criminals.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He made the remark after 37 countries approved the Enlarged Partial Agreement required to launch the Special Tribunal for the Crime of Aggression Against Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this year, Ukraine imposed sanctions on \u0141uka\u0161enka and other Belarusian officials and business executives.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a separate development, Sybiha appointed Yaroslav Chornohor as a foreign ministry ambassador-at-large to oversee relations with Belarusian pro-democracy forces.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

More broadly, Ukraine has recently abandoned its previously cautious policy toward Minsk, which was driven by fears that Belarus might join the war against Ukraine on Russia\u2019s side.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka steers clear of sharp exchanges<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

In terms of rhetoric, Kyiv and \u0141uka\u0161enka have effectively switched roles recently. The Belarusian ruler previously berated the Ukrainian president and even called him \u201ca louse.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

More recently, Zelensky and his officials have taken a more aggressive tone toward \u0141uka\u0161enka. In January, speaking at a ceremony, Zelensky stressed that Belarus remained Russia\u2019s province and that Belarusians had yet to fight for their freedom and independence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cSo far, unfortunately, [Alaksandar] \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s white spitz has more rights than the people of Belarus,\u201d he said, referring to the Belarusian ruler\u2019s pet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Thus, Ukrainians have become noticeably bolder, while the Belarusian autocrat, who once freely insulted others, has become more cautious. This is what happens when \u0141uka\u0161enka perceives his opponent as stronger.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What has changed<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Ukraine has made significant progress in drone warfare. Its unmanned systems have been striking targets deep inside Russia. Ukraine has also unveiled a new missile called Flamingo, with a range of 3,000 kilometers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ukrainian drones have attacked refineries in Tuapse, Perm, Ust-Luga and other locations across Russia. Zelensky described these attacks as \u201clong-range sanctions.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Belarus\u2019 Mazyr state-of-the-art refinery is located very close to Ukraine. In general, Ukraine\u2019s forces now have sufficient capabilities to retaliate against Belarus if necessary.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It should be recalled that Russian President Vladimir Putin reportedly asked US President Donald Trump for assistance in arranging a ceasefire with Ukraine for his Victory Day parade on May 9. That humiliation for the \u201colder brother\u201d likely made a strong impression on \u0141uka\u0161enka.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If the Kremlin leader, who presides over a nuclear power, is uncertain about his air defenses, his ally in Minsk has even more reason to worry about potential retaliation for complicity in Russia\u2019s war of aggression.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Driving a wedge between aggressor and co-aggressor?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

On May 15, Zelensky said Moscow was considering launching operations from Belarus \u201ceither against Ukraine\u2019s Chernihiv\u2013Kyiv region or against one of the NATO countries.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Obviously, Moscow has many plans\u2014some hypothetical or intended for the distant future. At present, operations from Belarus against Ukraine or other European countries appear unlikely.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka does not command a large army, and his troops are not highly motivated to fight against Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Latvia\u2019s Intelligence and Security Service, in its 2025 annual report, estimated the Belarusian army\u2019s strength at about 50,000 personnel, including 20,000 conscripts and 30,000 contract soldiers. \u0141uka\u0161enka stated in April that Belarus has a 70,000-strong army and could expand it to 500,000 through mobilization.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Since 2022, the Belarusian leader has carefully avoided sending his forces into Ukraine, despite reported pressure from Moscow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Putin faces manpower shortages in Ukraine and lacks spare forces to open another front against Ukraine or any European country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ukrainian forces have fortified the border with Belarus, and the natural marshy terrain in southern Belarus would complicate any large-scale offensive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At present, Ukraine does not appear to face any immediate threat from Belarus. However, journalists may not be aware of all forms of \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s indirect support for Russian forces, such as the use of relay stations to amplify drone signals during large-scale attacks on Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In any case, Kyiv appears to be making alarmist statements to draw Europe\u2019s attention and encourage greater support for Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Zelensky may also be seeking to prevent the Belarusian ruler from improving ties with Washington or to drive a wedge between \u0141uka\u0161enka and Putin. Kyiv\u2019s pressure could discourage him from undertaking missions dictated by Moscow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some analysts suggest that Ukraine may be trying to raise the stakes ahead of possible negotiations with \u0141uka\u0161enka after a potential peace deal with the Kremlin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What is clear is that Kyiv can afford to maintain pressure on the Belarusian ruler and has the tools to do so. Ukrainians also believe he has committed enough actions to warrant continued pressure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n
\n \"\"