{"id":189082,"date":"2026-05-25T17:14:31","date_gmt":"2026-05-25T14:14:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/189082\/"},"modified":"2026-05-25T17:14:33","modified_gmt":"2026-05-25T14:14:33","slug":"pressure-and-diplomacy-europes-balancing-act-with-lukasenka","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/189082\/","title":{"rendered":"Pressure and diplomacy: Europe\u2019s balancing act with \u0141uka\u0161enka"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Emmanuel Macron has warned Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka against involvement in Russia\u2019s war against Ukraine, TF1\/LCI reported, citing a source close to the French president. Macron stressed \u201cthe risks for Belarus of allowing itself to be drawn\u201d into the war, according to the report.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\n (Belarusian leader's website, commons.wikimedia.org \/ Pozirk's collage)<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/figcaption>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

France planning a nuclear drill<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The conversation came a week after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Ukrainian intelligence had detected attempts by Moscow to persuade \u0141uka\u0161enka \u201cto join new Russian aggressive operations.\u201d He warned that plans were being discussed for operations \u201cto the south and north of Belarus \u2014 either against Ukraine\u2019s Chernihiv\u2013Kyiv region or against one of the NATO countries.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cUkraine possesses details of the conversation between Russia and Belarus,\u201d Zelensky said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The phone call also took place days after Russia and Belarus conducted a nuclear exercise. Observers speculate that NATO fears Russia could launch a nuclear strike from Belarus against one of its allies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Poland\u2019s WP Wiadomo\u015bci<\/em> reported that France and Poland are planning to hold a nuclear exercise simulating strikes on targets in Russia and Belarus. Macron may have warned \u0141uka\u0161enka against toying with the nuclear issue, signaling that France would be prepared to respond.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cOne can talk with \u0141uka\u0161enka only using the language of strength and warnings from a position of strength. Beyond doubt, France does possess such strength,\u201d commented Belarusian opposition politician Pavie\u0142 \u0141atu\u0161ka.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He also noted that \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s role has diminished to the lowest point in his more than 30 years in power, stressing that he can hardly deliver on any promises he makes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka still has a degree of independence<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Opposition politicians tend to downplay \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s role and his degree of independence from the Kremlin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Paris and Washington, while fully aware of his dependence on Moscow, still recognize that he remains a factor to be reckoned with.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although he rigged elections, he objectively controls Belarus, which is far from the smallest country in Europe. He does not exercise total control, but he undoubtedly wields far more power inside the country than the exiled opposition camp.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

When European leaders perceive a serious threat, they typically use every available tool to mitigate it. Macron likely reasoned that a phone call to \u0141uka\u0161enka could hardly make the situation worse for Europe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vassal\u2019s cunning should be taken into account<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Clearly, Russian President Vladimir Putin\u2019s influence over \u0141uka\u0161enka is much greater than Macron\u2019s.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It should be recalled that Macron phoned the Belarusian strongman just two days after Russia\u2019s full-scale invasion of Ukraine to demand the withdrawal of Russian troops from Belarus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He also stressed \u201cthe seriousness of the decision to allow Russia to deploy nuclear weapons on the territory of Belarus,\u201d according to reports.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka, according to his press office, dismissed what he called \u201cfake\u201d rumors about plans to invite Russian nuclear weapons into Belarus. He stressed that \u201cif the people of Belarus are not intimidated, not only nuclear but also conventional [Russian] weapons will be out of the question.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

One year later, however, he announced that nuclear warheads were already in Belarus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Still, many observers doubt that Russia has actually transferred tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus and suspect that the two autocrats are merely bluffing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It should also be noted that after Russia\u2019s failed attempt to seize Kyiv, Putin withdrew nearly all Russian troops from Belarus. The Belarusian army, meanwhile, did not enter the war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Those decisions were driven by pragmatism and self-preservation rather than pressure from Paris.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka did his best to persuade Putin that Belarusian troops should stay out of Ukraine and instead protect Russia from a hypothetical NATO attack.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Therefore, Belarus\u2019 involvement in the war depends both on the Kremlin\u2019s wishes and on the vassal\u2019s own cunning.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

US example: pressure works alongside diplomacy<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The French diplomatic effort could still pay off.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Take, for instance, Poland\u2019s recent behind-the-scenes effort to secure the release of journalist and Polish minority activist Andrej Pa\u010dobut (Andrzej Poczobut) and several other prisoners. Warsaw reopened border checkpoints long before any deal was finalized. It is now discussing a possible reset in relations with Minsk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This tactic can be described as partial de-escalation \u2014 an idea promoted last year by a group of Belarusian political experts. Such an approach could prove especially useful after the end of the Russian-Ukrainian war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The European Union has already sent signals about possible negotiations with Minsk. Brice Roquefeuil, director for continental Europe at the French foreign ministry, visited the Belarusian capital on February 5\u20136.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

During Sunday\u2019s phone conversation with \u0141uka\u0161enka, Macron likely also offered Minsk certain incentives in exchange for concessions toward Europe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Minsk is eager to improve ties with the EU in hopes of securing at least partial sanctions relief, including the unblocking of potash fertilizer exports.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

US pressure combined with diplomacy has already helped secure the release of hundreds of political prisoners. Washington continues its efforts to persuade Minsk to end repression.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Certainly, \u0141uka\u0161enka is unlikely to embark on a path toward democracy. But even a partial easing of repression would mean that Washington\u2019s efforts were not in vain.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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