{"id":190187,"date":"2026-06-02T12:25:07","date_gmt":"2026-06-02T09:25:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/190187\/"},"modified":"2026-06-02T12:25:09","modified_gmt":"2026-06-02T09:25:09","slug":"kyiv-uses-more-assertive-rhetoric-on-belarus-but-a-preemptive-strike-remains-unlikely","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/190187\/","title":{"rendered":"Kyiv uses more assertive rhetoric on Belarus, but a preemptive strike remains unlikely"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

In recent months, Ukraine\u2019s rhetoric toward Belarus has grown more assertive, prompting speculation about a possible preemptive strike. Although Kyiv\u2019s warnings should be taken seriously, Ukraine is unlikely to strike first.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\n (Websites of the Ukrainian and Belarusian leaders, Olena Khudyakova \/ Pozirk's collage)<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/figcaption>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Legitimate target<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Four years after Russia\u2019s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Kyiv has sharply changed its rhetoric regarding Belarus. Whereas previously it avoided harsh criticism of Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka for fear that he might enter the war on Russia\u2019s side, in recent months Ukrainian officials have warned Minsk that Belarusian territory \u2014 from which Russian troops entered Ukraine in 2022 \u2014 could become a legitimate military target if another attack comes from that direction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On May 21, President Volodymyr Zelensky said that Ukraine could take \u201cpreventive\u201d action against the Belarusian leadership to deter it from carrying out \u201caggressive actions\u201d against Ukraine. He added that the Ukrainian army has the capability to impose \u201clong-range sanctions.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In May alone, the commander of Ukraine\u2019s Unmanned Systems Forces, Robert Brovdi, issued three warnings to \u0141uka\u0161enka. In one statement, he said that he had already identified \u201c500 first targets.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The rhetoric, combined with opposition leader \u015aviat\u0142ana Cichano\u016dskaja\u2019s high-profile visit to Ukraine, led some experts to speculate that Kyiv might open a second front and attack Belarus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Strategic communications expert Anastasija Kosciuhava wrote an alarmist Facebook post in which she did not rule out \u201ca Ukrainian strike on Belarusian territory.\u201d According to her, statements by Ukrainian officials could be \u201cpreparing public opinion for an escalation with Belarus.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Political analyst Pavie\u0142 Usa\u016d went even further, suggesting that Kyiv could install Cichano\u016dskaja as Belarus\u2019s leader.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although Ukraine\u2019s warnings should be taken seriously, Kyiv is unlikely to strike first.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ukraine threatens \u0141uka\u0161enka only if he enters the war<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Kyiv has no intention of striking Belarus on its own initiative simply because it wants to. All statements by Ukrainian officials have referred to a scenario in which \u0141uka\u0161enka, under pressure from Moscow, joins the war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Zelensky has been making this point for quite some time. On May 15, following a meeting with the leadership of the Ukrainian General Staff, military intelligence, foreign intelligence and the Security Service of Ukraine, he announced that Ukrainian intelligence had detected attempts to \u201cconvince [\u0141uka\u0161enka] to join new Russian aggressive operations.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cUkraine knows the details of the talks between Russia and Belarus. Ukraine will certainly defend itself and its people if Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka makes the mistake of supporting yet another Russian intention,\u201d Zelensky wrote on Telegram. \u201cI instructed our defense and security forces to strengthen the relevant direction and prepare a response plan.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The same message lies behind Brovdi\u2019s emotional statements. Referring to \u0141uka\u0161enka in highly impolite terms, he threatened retaliation if the Belarusian ruler yielded to Kremlin pressure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ukraine\u2019s permanent representative to the UN, Andriy Melnyk, delivered a similar message during a UN Security Council meeting. He said that any attack from Belarus \u201cwill trigger an immediate and resolute response, and the regime in Minsk will face devastating consequences.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ukrainian officials have never spoken about attacking Belarus preemptively because doing so would be both a military and political blunder for Kyiv.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kyiv can hardly handle two fronts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

From a military perspective, such a move would be disastrous because Kyiv has no reason to turn its 1,084-kilometer border with Belarus into an active front line.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even if a direct invasion from Belarus is unlikely \u2014 the Belarusian army is small and inexperienced, and Russia currently lacks the manpower for another northern offensive \u2014 the Kremlin would certainly welcome an additional opportunity to attack Ukraine from the air. Western Ukrainian regions, which do not come under Russian attack very often, would become much more vulnerable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It should also be noted that an attack by Ukraine on Belarus would increase the risk of Russia using nuclear weapons. Whether nuclear weapons are already present in Belarus or not, a recent nuclear drill involving Russian nuclear munitions clearly showed that such scenarios are being considered. Judging by all indications, Kyiv took the exercise very seriously.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Politically, a preemptive strike is unrealistic because Ukraine\u2019s Western allies would hardly endorse it. Europe is helping Ukraine defend itself from Russia \u2014 not attack neighboring territories that are not directly involved in the war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The United States, meanwhile, has recently reached out to Minsk, encouraging \u0141uka\u0161enka to strike a \u201cgrand bargain\u201d involving the release of political prisoners. The Belarusian ruler is reportedly interested in meeting US President Donald Trump in person. Under such circumstances, a Ukrainian strike on Belarus appears highly unlikely.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ukraine remains critically dependent on Western assistance. Securing that aid has already become increasingly difficult for many reasons. Kyiv has no intention of adding attacks on Belarus to the list of complications.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ukrainian drones could strike Belarus \u2014 and Minsk knows it<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Ukraine\u2019s verbal attacks on Belarus have indeed become harsher, but this is easy to explain.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even casual observers can see that Putin\u2019s army has bogged down and has made no progress for a long time. In some areas, Ukrainian forces have regained territory, including entire settlements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ukraine has ramped up drone production, striking Russian energy, oil refining, military and logistics infrastructure on a near-daily basis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ukrainian drones nearly forced the cancellation of a military parade in Moscow marking the Soviet victory over Nazi Germany. The parade ultimately took place \u2014 but only after Zelensky ironically \u201cpromised\u201d not to attack Red Square on May 9.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The war has reached a stalemate, yet Putin appears unwilling to end it. The Kremlin is searching for new strategies but has so far produced little beyond intensified bombardments of Ukrainian cities. Russia is searching for additional resources while its economy continues to struggle. It seeks new military reserves, but reinforcements from North Korea are not arriving.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is plausible that, amid the current difficulties at the front, Putin would like to drag Belarus into the war and has therefore been pressuring \u0141uka\u0161enka.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Belarusian ruler does not want to fight. At his age, he wants to remain in power and, if possible, ease sanctions \u2014 what more could he want? But over the years and decades, he has pushed Belarus so deeply into dependence on Russia that the \u201cbig brother\u201d now possesses many levers to make Minsk an offer it cannot refuse.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ukraine likely assumes \u2014 or perhaps knows for certain \u2014 that Putin may be twisting \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s arm to secure greater military assistance. Kyiv also understands that it would be difficult for Belarus to resist such pressure. That is why Ukrainian officials are issuing stern warnings to Minsk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The harsh rhetoric reflects Ukraine\u2019s growing military confidence. Kyiv is signaling to the Belarusian ruler that reckless decisions would carry serious consequences.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka surely realizes that Ukraine\u2019s army is now an extremely powerful force \u2014 perhaps the world\u2019s leading military when it comes to drone warfare and combat experience. He knows that, if necessary, Ukrainian drones could strike Belarus directly, targeting factories supporting Russia\u2019s defense industry, military bases, airfields, fuel depots and even the residences of the country\u2019s leadership.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The head of the Belarusian regime understands that hiding in a bunker would destroy his propaganda image of \u201cpeaceful skies\u201d and could ultimately lead to his political downfall.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That is why Ukraine\u2019s statements should be taken seriously in Minsk \u2014 even without any actual preemptive strike.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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