{"id":190991,"date":"2026-06-08T17:07:39","date_gmt":"2026-06-08T14:07:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/190991\/"},"modified":"2026-06-08T17:07:41","modified_gmt":"2026-06-08T14:07:41","slug":"armenias-pro-west-government-wins-election-deepening-lukasenkas-concerns","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/190991\/","title":{"rendered":"Armenia\u2019s pro-West government wins election, deepening \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s concerns"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan\u2019s party has won a crucial election widely seen as a test of whether the country will continue moving closer to the West. The result has disappointed not only the Kremlin but also Minsk.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n \"\"\n
\n \n
\n (RFE\/RL)<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/figcaption>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Pashinyan\u2019s centrist Civil Contract Party secured 49.8 percent of the vote, while the pro-Russian Strong Armenia Alliance came second with 23.2 percent. The Armenia Alliance finished third with 9.9 percent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pashinyan, who has been in power since 2018, declared victory on Monday and said his government would continue its rapprochement with the European Union.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, he stressed that Armenia would remain a member of the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Both Vladimir Putin of Russia and Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka of Belarus had urged Armenia to hold a referendum to choose between the EU and the EAEU.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yerevan takes challenge head-on<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

For years, Armenia was considered too vulnerable to pursue closer ties with the EU. The country shares no border with the bloc and is surrounded by Azerbaijan and Turkey, neither of which has been particularly friendly, as well as by authoritarian Iran and Georgia, which has increasingly leaned toward Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sunday\u2019s vote was the first general election since Armenia, a South Caucasus nation of around three million people, suffered a devastating military defeat to Azerbaijan in 2023. Azerbaijan regained control of Nagorno-Karabakh, forcing more than 100,000 ethnic Armenians to flee the region.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The war severely damaged Pashinyan\u2019s political standing. The Armenian leader had relied on the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) to provide security guarantees, but the alliance failed to intervene. In the aftermath, Pashinyan declared a shift in Armenia\u2019s foreign policy toward closer cooperation with the EU.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pashinyan\u2019s victory was also supported by strong economic performance, aided by the relocation of Russian professionals and an influx of Russian capital that boosted domestic demand and investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The loss of Nagorno-Karabakh disillusioned many Armenians with Russia, while the government\u2019s pro-Western orientation played a significant role in Pashinyan\u2019s electoral success.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Armenian leader also received political backing from Western partners, including US President Donald Trump, amid Russian pressure and economic sanctions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite Armenia\u2019s geopolitical shift, Russia continues to operate a military base in Gumri and retains substantial influence over the Armenian economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Verbal exchanges and economic pressure<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Armenia\u2019s democracy remains imperfect. The opposition accuses the authorities of persecuting political opponents, while some criminal cases appear politically motivated. For example, Samvel Karapetyan, leader of the Strong Armenia Alliance, was placed under house arrest on election day over alleged \u201ccalls for the seizure of power.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nevertheless, Armenia\u2019s election was open, competitive and transparent \u2014 standards that \u0141uka\u0161enka and Putin have consistently rejected. In Belarus and Russia, elections are tightly controlled, and political opponents are frequently imprisoned.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Kremlin made considerable efforts to influence the Armenian vote. In May and early June, Moscow banned imports of Armenian flowers, Jermuk mineral water, wine, cognac, tomatoes, cucumbers, peppers, herbs, strawberries, grapes, apricots, cherries and peaches.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Putin also signaled that Russia could end preferential energy supplies if Armenia pursued a pro-EU course, a move that could reportedly cost the country up to 14 percent of its GDP. He appeared to draw a warning from the war in Ukraine, stating that \u201cthe Ukraine crisis began with attempts to incorporate Ukraine into the EU.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka did not impose trade restrictions on Armenian cognac, but he publicly supported Putin\u2019s position.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe Armenians should be very careful in order, God forbid, not to repeat what has happened in Ukraine,\u201d the Belarusian ruler said after an EAEU summit in Astana on May 29.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Belarusian leader also accused Pashinyan of misleading the Armenian public when promising to diversify the country\u2019s energy supplies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cI would like to know why he is lying to his people. What pipelines? Where would these pipelines come from? Who would provide this gas, and how much would it cost?\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Pashinyan said on June 4 that Armenia could withdraw from the CSTO.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWe will decide. Foreign agents will not decide what to do. We will not let [Alaksandar] \u0141uka\u0161enka be our guarantor again,\u201d he said during a televised election debate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He dismissed comparisons between Armenia and Ukraine as \u201cnot serious.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

No congratulations from \u0141uka\u0161enka<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Many observers believe Armenia is likely to follow Moldova in gradually distancing itself from Russia, despite its continuing dependence on Russian energy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Armenia is not yet an official EU candidate country and has not received a roadmap for accession. Yerevan also has no plans to withdraw from the EAEU.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nevertheless, Pashinyan has pledged to pursue reforms that would bring Armenia closer to European standards.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka is unlikely to welcome this development. He has repeatedly urged former Soviet republics to remain united, arguing that they are not wanted elsewhere.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yerevan appears unimpressed by such rhetoric. Instead, it is seeking deeper engagement with Brussels, including negotiations on visa-free travel and an EU-Armenia summit attended by European leaders and Belarusian opposition politician \u015aviat\u0142ana Cichano\u016dskaja.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s \u201clet\u2019s stick together\u201d narrative is unlikely to resonate with many leaders across the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). Many see it as a desperate appeal from a politician increasingly isolated within the Kremlin\u2019s embrace.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka burned many of his geopolitical bridges in 2020, while other post-Soviet leaders have retained greater room for maneuver.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Incidentally, Kasym-\u017damar Tokayev of Kazakhstan congratulated Pashinyan on his election victory, as did many other leaders. \u0141uka\u0161enka and Putin, however, have remained silent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n
\n \"\"