{"id":191446,"date":"2026-06-11T16:00:57","date_gmt":"2026-06-11T13:00:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/191446\/"},"modified":"2026-06-11T16:01:00","modified_gmt":"2026-06-11T13:01:00","slug":"no-new-date-for-coales-minsk-visit-amid-ongoing-belarus-talks","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/191446\/","title":{"rendered":"No new date for Coale\u2019s Minsk visit amid ongoing Belarus talks"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

John Coale, the US president\u2019s special envoy for Belarus, has denied that negotiations between Washington and Minsk to secure the release of Belarusian political prisoners have been suspended. However, he stopped short of announcing any dates for his visit to Minsk.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\n (Images from the Belarusian leader's press office, Viasna and Bie\u0142aru\u015bkalij \/ Pozirk's collage)<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/figcaption>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

On April 28, he said that he would arrive in the Belarusian capital \u201cin two to three weeks.\u201d Some commentators suggested that Donald Trump\u2019s special envoy might time the visit to coincide with the Protestant \u201cFestival of Hope\u201d held in Minsk in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, he did not show up. Instead, his wife, Greta Van Susteren, accompanied well-known preacher Franklin Graham \u2014 a friend of Coale\u2019s family and a person close to the US president \u2014 on his trip to Belarus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Graham\u2019s visit was reportedly arranged after he asked Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka to allow the event. In the end, the festival went ahead, but Coale\u2019s wife, journalist Greta Van Susteren, attended alone. It remains unclear whether the couple had originally planned to attend it together.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Potash sanctions may be a sticking point<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Belarusian opposition leader \u015aviat\u0142ana Cichano\u016dskaja said in an interview with Reuters<\/em> that the negotiation process had stalled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The impasse may be linked to the European Union\u2019s sanctions on Belarusian potash exports.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The White House has been lobbying for the transit of Belarusian potash through the ports of Lithuania, Poland or Ukraine, reportedly at \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s request. However, it is unlikely that Minsk has issued an ultimatum stating that no prisoners will be released unless fertilizer transit through Klaip\u0117da, Gda\u0144sk or Odesa is restored.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The US State Department has sent letters regarding potash transit to Vilnius, Warsaw and Kyiv. Ukrainian authorities immediately rejected the proposal, noting that such transport is unrealistic during an ongoing war. Lithuania and Poland have pointed out that the sanctions were adopted at the EU level and cannot be lifted unilaterally, at least until next year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Washington has leverage over each of these three countries, but President Volodymyr Zelensky, as seen previously, has shown a willingness to resist even US pressure. Europe, too, has demonstrated that it is not easily swayed in its strained relations with Washington.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

An autocrat torn between incentives and control<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

So what is the main stumbling block in negotiations between Minsk and Washington? Most likely, there is more than one.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Negotiators may disagree on the number of prisoners to be released. The figures have increased with each Coale visit to Minsk: 14 in June 2025, 52 in September, 123 in December, and 250 in March 2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is reasonable to assume that Coale wants this upward trend to continue. \u0141uka\u0161enka, meanwhile, appears cautious in bargaining over what some have described as a \u201chuman commodity,\u201d fearing he may be conceding too much. Each release must also be justified to his security apparatus, parts of which are reportedly resistant to freeing regime opponents.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The sides may also disagree over specific individuals. \u0141uka\u0161enka and his officials are believed to review pardon lists carefully.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The motives vary. For example, Siarhiej Cichano\u016dski was released last year, apparently in the hope that he might sow discord within the opposition by challenging his wife\u2019s leadership.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In December, Viktar Babaryka was pardoned, but his son Eduard remains in prison. This decision is widely interpreted as a form of leverage: as long as the son is held, the father is likely to remain politically cautious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Another point of contention may be Washington\u2019s insistence that those pardoned be allowed to remain in Belarus. American negotiators have reportedly pressed this issue. As a result, 235 of the 250 released in March were not forcibly expelled, unlike in earlier cases. However, \u0141uka\u0161enka may have viewed this as too significant a concession and later reversed the approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In addition, political prisoners are often expelled without identification documents or have their passports invalidated. The US side is likely insisting that such practices end.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Finally, in March, Coale indicated that Washington was dissatisfied with the continued repression. Ending repression is likely the most difficult condition for \u0141uka\u0161enka.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, he appears to be hoping for a \u201cgrand bargain\u201d with Trump, while for Coale it remains a matter of completing the task assigned by the president.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Of course, the Americans understand that the Belarusian leader is unlikely to dismantle his repressive system. However, they are hoping he might at least ease it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Thus, \u0141uka\u0161enka appears torn between two priorities: maintaining strict domestic control on one hand, and on the other, seeking international legitimacy and potential benefits from a broader agreement with Washington.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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