{"id":192739,"date":"2026-06-21T15:09:11","date_gmt":"2026-06-21T12:09:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/192739\/"},"modified":"2026-06-21T15:09:13","modified_gmt":"2026-06-21T12:09:13","slug":"lukasenka-between-war-and-warnings-kyiv-tightens-the-squeeze","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/192739\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0141uka\u0161enka between war and warnings: Kyiv tightens the squeeze"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka \u2014 a leader who presents himself as the guarantor of Belarus\u2019 \u201cpeaceful skies\u201d \u2014 faces a difficult choice after Ukraine gave him one week to disable relay equipment allegedly facilitating Russian air strikes on Ukrainian territory.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n \"\"\n
\n \n
\n (pexels.com, Ukrainian and Belarusian leaders' websites\/ Pozirk's collage)<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/figcaption>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Kyiv\u2019s demands<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Ukraine has identified four relay systems in Belarus that facilitate Russian drone attacks on Ukraine, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on his Telegram channel on June 20.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He gave the Belarusian leader one week to \u201cremove or disable\u201d the equipment, warning that otherwise \u201cwe will do it ourselves.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to Zelensky, the network has enabled strikes on energy and railway infrastructure, as well as on \u201cordinary cities and villages\u201d in the Zhytomyr, Rivne and Volyn regions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Zelensky stressed that Ukraine knows of \u201cevery plant in Belarus that works for Russia\u201d and its war machine. He warned that Belarus\u2019 involvement in the war increases with every company that supplies Russia with weapon components and fuel.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In an apparent hint that Kyiv may target Belarus\u2019s two oil refineries, Zelensky noted that Minsk had increased its gasoline and diesel exports to Russia by 13 times and three times, respectively, during the first five months of 2026 compared with the same period a year earlier.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

All of this helps Russia \u201cadapt to pressure and does not bring peace closer,\u201d Zelensky said. He called on Belarus\u2019 \u201cde facto leadership\u201d to follow up on its \u201cunofficial\u201d messages to Kyiv and demonstrate that Minsk genuinely opposes the war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s options<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka can hardly comply with Kyiv\u2019s demands in the short term without losing face.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While it would be technically easy to dismantle the relay stations, he would likely need Moscow\u2019s approval to do so. That approval could be difficult to obtain, as the Kremlin, according to Zelensky, is pushing for deeper Belarusian involvement in the war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Stopping Belarusian industrial enterprises from servicing the Russian war machine would be an even greater challenge, assuming it is possible at all. Such a move would be a major setback not only for Belarus\u2019 principal military ally but also for hundreds of Belarusian companies benefiting from Russian military contracts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kyiv has intensified psychological pressure on the Belarusian strongman in what appears to be an effort to drive a wedge between him and Putin. \u0141uka\u0161enka now faces what is probably his toughest dilemma since the start of Russia\u2019s full-scale invasion in February 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Whatever decision he makes, his carefully cultivated image as a guarantor of peace for Belarusians has suffered a serious blow, even among loyal supporters, most of whom have little desire to die in someone else\u2019s war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kyiv\u2019s more assertive rhetoric<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Ukrainian leaders may have communicated similar warnings to Minsk through non-public channels before making them public.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Evidence of this may be found in \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s public apology to the Ukrainian president during an interview with Al-Arabiya<\/em> recorded on June 12. He apologized for an indirect threat against Zelensky that he made on the sidelines of a Eurasian summit in Astana on May 29.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s remarks came in response to repeated threats by Robert Brovdi, commander of Ukraine\u2019s drone forces, to strike targets in Belarus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThey may have identified 500 targets\u2026 But we have one target, a very serious one, with accurate coordinates and not far from Belarus,\u201d the Belarusian ruler said in Astana.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Two weeks later, however, he apologized for the remark.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cMaybe I went too far, but it was my response to his off-key remarks: \u2018We have identified 500 targets, we know where \u0141uka\u0161enka is located, we will strike with missiles and drones tomorrow,\u2019\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

 \u201cIf Volodymyr Oleksandrovych was offended by these words, I apologize to him,\u201d he added, respectfully addressing Zelensky by his patronymic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In recent months, Ukraine\u2019s rhetoric toward Belarus has grown noticeably more assertive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Whereas Kyiv previously avoided harsh criticism of \u0141uka\u0161enka for fear that he might enter the war on Russia\u2019s side, Ukrainian officials have recently warned Minsk repeatedly that Belarusian territory \u2014 from which Russian troops entered Ukraine in 2022 \u2014 could become a legitimate military target if another attack were launched from that direction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On May 21, Zelensky said that Ukraine could take \u201cpreventive\u201d action against the Belarusian leadership to deter it from carrying out \u201caggressive actions\u201d against Ukraine. He added that the Ukrainian military possesses the capability to impose \u201clong-range sanctions.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ukraine\u2019s increasingly sharp rhetoric toward Belarus has coincided with a period of greater confidence resulting from recent battlefield successes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Russian forces have become bogged down and have made little progress in recent months. In some areas, Ukrainian troops have regained territory, including entire settlements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, Ukraine has significantly expanded drone production and now strikes Russian energy, oil-refining, military and logistics infrastructure on a near-daily basis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In his Al-Arabiya<\/em> interview, \u0141uka\u0161enka acknowledged that Belarus would be highly vulnerable if Ukraine attacked it in the same way it attacks Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWe perfectly understand that our key life-support, production and logistics facilities would come under fire,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Doomed men<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Belarusian ruler\u2019s insecurity was further exposed in his cautious comments on this week\u2019s deadly attack on a Belarusian tour bus in Russia. While asserting that the drone involved was Ukrainian, he also warned against drawing premature conclusions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka noted that \u201cconspiracy theories\u201d were circulating, with some Ukrainians suggesting that the drone might have been \u201cpurchased by someone\u201d or that the incident could have been \u201csome kind of provocation\u201d orchestrated by Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On June 18, \u0141uka\u0161enka, once known for his militaristic bravado, warned his generals: \u201cWe understand: God forbid, if a hot war is unleashed [against Belarus], we would look like doomed men. We would simply be doomed men. We have seen it in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cDoomed men\u201d appeared to refer not so much to his generals \u2014 who can always be replaced \u2014 as to himself and his family.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shaky Minsk\u2013Moscow alliance<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka surely realizes that Ukraine\u2019s military is now an exceptionally capable force \u2014 perhaps the world leader in drone warfare and battlefield experience. He knows that, if necessary, Ukrainian drones could strike Belarus directly, targeting factories supporting Russia\u2019s defense industry, military bases, airfields, fuel depots and even residences linked to the country\u2019s leadership.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The war has reached a stalemate, yet Putin appears unwilling to end it. The Kremlin continues searching for new strategies but has produced little beyond intensified bombardments of Ukrainian cities. Russia is seeking additional resources while its economy remains under strain.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is plausible that, amid mounting difficulties on the battlefield, Putin would like to draw Belarus directly into the war and has therefore increased pressure on \u0141uka\u0161enka.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yet \u0141uka\u0161enka has remained largely indifferent to Putin\u2019s imperial ambitions. His primary objective is to secure as much economic support from Russia as possible, but that has become increasingly difficult as Russia\u2019s own economic challenges deepen. Moreover, \u0141uka\u0161enka probably has a clearer understanding of Russia\u2019s true economic condition than most ordinary citizens.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, his recent apologies appear to have emboldened the Ukrainian leadership to increase psychological pressure on him further.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka \u2014 a leader who presents himself as the guarantor of Belarus\u2019 \u201cpeaceful skies\u201d \u2014 faces a difficult choice after Ukraine gave him one week to disable relay equipment allegedly facilitating Russian air strikes on Ukrainian territory. Kyiv\u2019s demands Ukraine has identified four relay systems in Belarus that facilitate Russian drone attacks on Ukraine, […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":192691,"template":"","rubric":[24],"class_list":["post-192739","longreads","type-longreads","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n\u0141uka\u0161enka between war and warnings: Kyiv tightens the squeeze | Pozirk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka \u2014 a leader who presents himself as the guarantor of Belarus\u2019 \u201cpeaceful skies\u201d \u2014 faces a difficult choice after Ukraine gave him one\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/192739\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" 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