{"id":193967,"date":"2026-06-30T11:45:45","date_gmt":"2026-06-30T08:45:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/193967\/"},"modified":"2026-06-30T11:45:47","modified_gmt":"2026-06-30T08:45:47","slug":"after-putin-meeting-lukasenka-heads-to-china-as-he-tries-to-avoid-deeper-involvement-in-the-war","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/193967\/","title":{"rendered":"After Putin meeting, \u0141uka\u0161enka heads to China as he tries to avoid deeper involvement in the war"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka flew to China after holding a two-day private meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Russia this weekend, as Kyiv seeks to drive a wedge between its two adversaries, Minsk and Moscow.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n \"\"\n
\n \n
\n (The website of the Belarusian leader, the Telegram channel of the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, BelTA\/Pozirk's collage)<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/figcaption>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Was the Belarusian strongman given a talking-to?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The meeting with Putin took place days after the Belarusian leader complied with Kyiv\u2019s demand that Belarus shut down relay systems facilitating Russian drone attacks on Ukraine. Observers have been wondering whether \u0141uka\u0161enka acted on his own or first consulted Putin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Statements from Minsk and Moscow were thin on details about what the two leaders discussed in Valdai, leaving ample room for speculation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On June 28, Putin told Russian propagandist Pavel Zarubin that the two had not discussed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky\u2019s recent demands that Belarus stop supporting Russia\u2019s military machine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cOf course, some rude shouts from outside are a cause for concern, but this has not made President \u0141uka\u0161enka panic. He takes this in a very quiet, balanced and measured way,\u201d Putin said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Clearly, the former secret agent was never going to tell journalists the whole truth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

More tellingly, \u0141uka\u0161enka has also remained silent, although he is usually more talkative than Putin. His propaganda machine continues attacking the Ukrainian president, probably expressing what \u0141uka\u0161enka himself would like to say. Yet the Belarusian ruler has avoided personally attacking Zelensky, apparently realizing that Kyiv has the means to follow through on its threats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some observers speculate that \u0141uka\u0161enka may have conveyed Kyiv\u2019s peace proposals to Moscow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Belarusian leader said on June 25 that he had communicated with representatives of Zelensky. The following day, he said that \u201cUkraine has put forward proposals both to Putin\u2019s key partners and friends, who heard from us that a meeting is possible and an end to this war is possible.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even if \u0141uka\u0161enka did relay Ukraine\u2019s proposals \u2014 reportedly to end deep strikes and limit hostilities to the Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions \u2014 Putin appears to have brushed them aside, as he himself indicated in the interview with Zarubin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Did \u0141uka\u0161enka persuade Putin that Minsk should be more cautious with Kyiv?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Putin remains determined to pursue his objectives in Ukraine through military force. That is not in \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s interests.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Belarusian strongman has publicly apologized to Zelensky and admitted in a recent interview that his country would be vulnerable to hypothetical Ukrainian strikes. Belarus promptly switched off drone-control relay systems on June 22, several days before the expiry of Zelensky\u2019s deadline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kyiv says Moscow is pressuring \u0141uka\u0161enka to become more deeply involved in its campaign against Ukraine and is considering launching a new offensive from Belarusian territory, either against Ukraine or a NATO member state.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Putin lacks the troops and resources needed for a land offensive toward Kyiv or Ukraine\u2019s Volyn region from Belarus in the foreseeable future. Moreover, a new wave of mobilization would be highly unpopular with the Russian public, especially ahead of September\u2019s State Duma elections.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ukraine has heavily fortified its northern border and is closely monitoring any troop buildups in Belarus. As a result, the chances of launching a surprise attack are slim.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

An attack on Lithuania or Poland would also be poorly timed, given Russia\u2019s manpower shortages. It would also carry the risk of NATO invoking Article 5 of the alliance\u2019s founding treaty. Russia is currently too weak to wage two major wars simultaneously.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Kremlin would undoubtedly like to use Belarusian territory for missile strikes against Ukraine, as it did between February and October 2022. But such attacks could backfire on Belarus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka may have warned Putin against using Belarusian territory for renewed strikes during their meeting in Valdai. Such attacks would probably do Moscow more harm than good, he may have argued.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ukraine could retaliate by targeting Belarus\u2019s oil refineries, which supply Russia with fuel. An armed conflict would also undermine \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s domestic political position. Instead of gaining a military advantage, Russia could end up with a battered and politically unstable ally if it again used Belarus as a launchpad for attacks on Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

China interested in Belarus staying out of the war<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka may also have used his visit to Beijing to ask the Chinese leader to caution Putin against dragging Belarus deeper into the war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Chinese foreign ministry issued a statement noting that Xi Jinping expressed support for Belarus\u2019s sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although the statement did not specify who might threaten Belarus\u2019 independence, it could be interpreted as a warning directed either at Ukraine and NATO or at Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Neither Ukraine nor NATO has shown any intention of seizing Belarusian territory, whereas Russia has extensively used Belarus to support its military operations. Moscow also claims to have deployed nuclear munitions and the Oreshnik intermediate-range hypersonic ballistic missile in Belarus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the one hand, Beijing appears to benefit from Russia\u2019s war against Ukraine because it weakens Moscow and makes it more dependent on China. On the other hand, China has little interest in seeing the conflict spill over into Belarus, a key transit country for Chinese goods and an important hub for Chinese businesses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n
\n \"\"