{"id":194266,"date":"2026-07-02T10:57:34","date_gmt":"2026-07-02T07:57:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/194266\/"},"modified":"2026-07-02T10:57:36","modified_gmt":"2026-07-02T07:57:36","slug":"lukasenka-recasts-belarus-as-moscows-unreliable-ally","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/194266\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0141uka\u0161enka recasts Belarus as Moscow\u2019s unreliable ally"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Ukraine\u2019s recent assertiveness in its war with Russia has highlighted Belarus\u2019 importance to European security. Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka is likely to use his tour of Russia, China and Indonesia to create more room for maneuver.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\n (Websites of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka\/Pozirk's collage)<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/figcaption>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Change in Minsk\u2019s policy toward Moscow<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

As Ukraine seeks to gain a military edge over Russia, Kyiv has stepped up pressure on Minsk to stop supporting its enemy\u2019s war effort.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In an interview with Al-Arabiya<\/em> last week, \u0141uka\u0161enka revealed that he had met with representatives of President Volodymyr Zelensky and acknowledged that Belarus was vulnerable to potential Ukrainian strikes. These remarks suggest that he recognizes the shifting geopolitical landscape and is trying to maneuver his way out of an increasingly difficult situation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Obviously, he cannot simply sever the ties with Russia that he has spent decades building. However, he appears to be trying to distance himself from Moscow, whose behavior he increasingly views as reckless.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Whereas he previously complied almost automatically with Russian President Vladimir Putin\u2019s wishes, more recently he has acted with greater caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For instance, although Russia still has military supervisors assigned to the Viciebsk-based and Brest-based airborne assault brigades, they appear to have little authority to order Belarusian troops to march on Kyiv.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Rumors have also been circulating that Russian military advisers were denied access to a meeting of Belarus\u2019 General Staff on June 5. If true, this would indicate a shift in Minsk\u2019s behavior. Belarus\u2019 military leadership would be signaling that it has information it is unwilling to share even with its supposed \u201cbrothers in arms.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Belarus also reportedly canceled a large-scale mobilization and deployment exercise that Russia had planned to conduct in the neighboring country in late June.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Belarusian public does not want to fight Ukraine, as demonstrated not only by public opinion but also by the behavior of the country\u2019s military leadership.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Belarus stays out of the fighting<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka has repeatedly discussed with Putin the possible direct involvement of Belarusian forces in the war. It is quite likely that the issue was high on the agenda during his meeting with Putin in Valdai this weekend.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The lack of official information about the meeting suggests that Minsk is resisting Moscow\u2019s attempts to subordinate Belarus\u2019 defense policy. In recent weeks, Belarusian officials have publicly acknowledged the risks associated with direct involvement in the war and expressed their opposition to such a move.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For example, Minsk explained the presence of Shahed launch sites near Viciebsk, S\u0142onim and Biaroza as a consequence of its long-standing military alliance with Russia, while denying any intention of using them to attack Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Belarus cannot simply abandon its military alliance with Russia. However, Minsk is doing its best to demonstrate that it is not a fully reliable ally. That message carries particular significance in the fifth year of Russia\u2019s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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