{"id":197693,"date":"2026-07-29T12:23:28","date_gmt":"2026-07-29T09:23:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/197693\/"},"modified":"2026-07-29T12:23:30","modified_gmt":"2026-07-29T09:23:30","slug":"minsks-proposals-remain-a-mystery-as-it-edges-closer-to-a-new-deal-with-washington","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/197693\/","title":{"rendered":"Minsk\u2019s proposals remain a mystery as it edges closer to a new deal with Washington"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Minsk is expected to deliver its response to Washington\u2019s latest proposals within days as the two countries continue negotiating a possible grand bargain involving the release of political prisoners, sanctions relief and potential business deals.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\n (Marco Chilese\/ unsplash.com, the websites of the Belarusian foreign ministry and White House\/ Pozirk's collage)<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/figcaption>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Belarus\u2019 permanent representative to the United Nations, Valancin Rybako\u016d, met with Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka on July 28 before departing for Washington.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trump still appears interested<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Rybako\u016d told reporters yesterday that he meets regularly with US Special Envoy for Belarus John Coale and hopes those meetings will bear \u201cvisible fruit in the foreseeable future.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, \u0141uka\u0161enka said prospects for relations with the United States looked promising.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The remarks came after months of official silence on the negotiations, prompting speculation that US President Donald Trump might have lost interest in Belarus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Following his last meeting with a US delegation led by Coale on March 19, \u0141uka\u0161enka ordered the release of 250 political prisoners. Of those, 235 were allowed to remain in Belarus, while 15 were taken to Lithuania.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In total, more than 400 political prisoners have been released as a result of talks between Minsk and Washington. In return, the United States has gradually eased sanctions on the \u0141uka\u0161enka regime.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Regime reluctant to ease repression<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

After Coale\u2019s last visit, negotiations likely continued behind the scenes but without any tangible results. Both sides appear to have raised the stakes, as they had in previous rounds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Each round of talks has so far resulted in larger groups of prisoners being released: 14 in June 2025, 52 in September, 123 in December and 250 in March 2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trump and his team want those numbers to continue rising. \u0141uka\u0161enka, for his part, is unwilling to sell prisoners too cheaply.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although Washington has lifted more than 80 percent of its sanctions, European sanctions, which have had a much greater economic impact, remain in place.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In theory, \u0141uka\u0161enka can always arrest more people. However, he has already released most of his most prominent critics, who are now based abroad and beyond his reach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Moreover, Coale told Reuters <\/em>in March that Washington had demanded Minsk stop making politically motivated arrests. That has not happened yet and may be the main sticking point in the negotiations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Potash transit<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Another point of contention is the transit of Belarusian potash, which is banned under European Union sanctions. Both \u0141uka\u0161enka and Washington have made it clear that they want the EU to lift its restrictions on Belarusian potash exports. The United States is also interested in purchasing potash fertilizers from Belarus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The EU’s potash sanctions are in force until February 2027, and Brussels appears determined to extend them as long as Minsk continues its repression and supports Russia\u2019s war against Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In May, Trump\u2019s team reportedly sent an unofficial letter to Lithuania, Poland and Ukraine urging them to authorize the transit of Belarusian potash.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kyiv rejected the proposal outright, while Vilnius and Warsaw have not made their responses public. In any case, the EU transit route remains blocked.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka probably expected Brussels to comply with Washington\u2019s wishes, but the EU has proved more independent than Minsk had hoped.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Another Coale visit possible<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka said yesterday that the Americans, including Coale, \u201cperfectly understand . . . what we can and can\u2019t do.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

His remarks suggest that the bargaining remains difficult, with Minsk unwilling to cross certain red lines. Nevertheless, a deal appears to be taking shape; otherwise, Minsk would probably not have publicized Rybako\u016d\u2019s meeting with the Belarusian ruler.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Moreover, \u0141uka\u0161enka said he trusted Coale and asked Rybako\u016d to convey his best wishes to the US envoy and his wife.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Minsk has not disclosed the proposals Rybako\u016d is taking to Washington, but it has not ruled out another visit by Coale to Belarus. As a result, the chances of another round of prisoner releases remain high.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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