{"id":204230,"date":"2026-09-17T13:45:27","date_gmt":"2026-09-17T10:45:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/204230\/"},"modified":"2026-09-17T13:45:29","modified_gmt":"2026-09-17T10:45:29","slug":"prisoner-release-falls-short-of-expectations-but-us-belarus-engagement-likely-to-continue","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/204230\/","title":{"rendered":"Prisoner release falls short of expectations, but US-Belarus engagement likely to continue"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Belarus transferred 25 political prisoners to Lithuania on September 16, far fewer than anticipated. Although a larger deal has not materialized, engagement between Minsk and Washington continues, with US officials expecting more dissidents to be freed in the near future.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n \"\"\n
\n \n
\n (Belarusian leader's website\/Pozirk)<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/figcaption>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Coale\u2019s target is 1,000<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

In an interview published by Voice of America<\/em> on August 29, US Special Envoy John Coale said that US engagement had helped secure the release of roughly 700 to 800 prisoners, expressing hope that the number would soon reach 1,000. Media reports speculated that Coale would seek the release of 200 to 300 prisoners during his next visit to Minsk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But Coale has never said that prisoners would be released in one go. According to unconfirmed reports, the Belarusian government might free several groups of political prisoners this fall.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The 25 released prisoners, mostly high-profile figures, including four or five journalists, were taken to Lithuania. This suggests that Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka continues to stand by his position that the most outspoken critics should be expelled from the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Coale\u2019s previous transaction in March resulted in the deportation of 15 prisoners, while 235 were released and allowed to remain in Belarus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Coale told Reuters<\/em> that he intended to visit Belarus in a month to secure the release of hundreds more prisoners.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What could have gone wrong<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

At his meeting with Coale, \u0141uka\u0161enka strongly denied the existence of political prisoners in Belarus, noting that Belarus does not have criminal laws specifically targeting political activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIf a citizen of Belarus or a non-citizen present here breaks Belarusian laws, we will surely respond according to law. If they deserve to be under investigation or at correctional labor colonies, they will be there,\u201d \u0141uka\u0161enka warned.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

His security services use laws against extremism, terrorism, defamation and social hatred to silence and imprison political opponents.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Belarusian ruler is reluctant to end the repression regardless of Washington\u2019s wishes. He fears that major concessions to his opponents, such as easing repression, could unsettle his regime.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That might be a major point of contention in the talks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Minsk may have reservations<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWe are open to discuss any issues. The only thing \u2013 this is not a demand by my request to you \u2013 we must strictly follow our agreements,\u201d \u0141uka\u0161enka told Coale.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This might be an allusion to unfulfilled promises or commitments by the US side, but this can only be guessed at.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Minsk was probably hoping that Washington would do more to persuade Europe to ease its sanctions on Belarus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What is especially important for Minsk is the possibility of potash transit through the Lithuanian port of Klaipeda.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Coale did ask Lithuania to authorize Belarusian potash transit, but to no avail. Minsk may be insisting that US President Donald Trump\u2019s negotiators put more pressure on Vilnius to allow such transit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Both have incentives to continue engagement<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Most likely, talks between Minsk and Washington have stalled over divergent expectations. Washington probably encourages Minsk to ease repression, while Minsk probably encourages Washington to increase pressure on Lithuania.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There may be other sticking points that are not publicly known.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka seems reluctant to release prisoners without securing significant concessions and is unwilling to soften his regime. Washington cannot ignore the continuing repression and has been unable to persuade Vilnius to compromise.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Coale said in Minsk that the sides had agreed on an interim agreement, but would not elaborate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The agreement may have involved Minsk releasing 25 prisoners in exchange for Washington lifting sanctions on Bie\u0142lesbumpram and \u0141akafarba, Belarusian producers of wood products and paints, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Coale certainly expected more from this round, while Minsk has not achieved a great deal. \u0141akafarba is not an economic flagship, while Bie\u0142lesbumpram companies have been hit harder by European sanctions than by US ones.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nevertheless, \u0141uka\u0161enka is interested in continuing to bargain with Washington as long as the Kremlin permits.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Coale, Trump\u2019s longtime friend, wants to secure the release of as many prisoners as possible.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trump would also like to see more progress in Belarus ahead of the US congressional elections. Therefore, engagement is likely to continue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n
\n \"\"