{"id":204415,"date":"2026-09-18T19:46:35","date_gmt":"2026-09-18T16:46:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/204415\/"},"modified":"2026-09-18T19:46:38","modified_gmt":"2026-09-18T16:46:38","slug":"lukasenka-coale-give-each-other-home-assignments-who-will-do-better","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/204415\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0141uka\u0161enka, Coale give each other home assignments: who will do better?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

After meeting with Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka in Minsk on September 15, US Special Envoy John Coale immediately set about working on the home assignment given to him by the Belarusian strongman.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\n (Belarusian leader's website, BelTA, Tim Hufner\/ unsplash.com \/ Pozirk's collage)<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/figcaption>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Assignment one: banking restrictions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Reporting on \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s meeting with Coale, the Belarusian ruler\u2019s press office quoted the US envoy as saying that funds \u201cstuck\u201d at Citibank must be \u201cunfrozen and returned\u201d to Belarus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWe have requested from them as to why they are not releasing the money that we support one hundred percent should be released,\u201d Coale said in a video published by the press office. \u201cWhen we get that answer, then we will come back to them to make the mechanism to release the money or toward whatever is necessary to get that released.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka first mentioned the Citibank-held funds on September 11 while speaking to reporters ahead of Coale\u2019s visit. He made it clear that Belarus was already loading potash fertilizers for shipment to the United States and added that he expected Citibank to release some $43\u201344 million to a company that \u201ccooperated with us,\u201d apparently referring to funds frozen because of sanctions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cReturn the money, then we will negotiate more serious things with you,\u201d he said without elaborating.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Coale told Nastoyashcheye Vremya<\/em> that he wanted to make sure that banks and companies in the United States understood that lifting sanctions means they can do business.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Assignment two: potash transit<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka said during the negotiations that he was open to discussing any business, but stressed that any agreements must be implemented.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This may have been a hint that Washington has not resolved the issue of potash transit through a Baltic country, possibly via Lithuania\u2019s port of Klaipeda.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

After the Minsk visit, the US diplomat met with top officials in Vilnius and Riga. He told The New York Times<\/em> that a deal on potash fertilizers was at a good stage, noting that the United States would like to buy crop nutrients from Belarus. He said he had met with the Lithuanian president and was planning to meet with the Latvian president in an effort to get everyone on the same wavelength.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The New York Times<\/em> said Washington was hoping that the European Union would allow Belarus to resume potash transit through Lithuania, which could help reduce global prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vilnius and Riga appear to be intransigent. Neither has reported progress in the potash negotiations. Instead, Latvian Prime Minister Andres Kulbergs called for tighter sanctions on Belarus, citing hybrid threats such as irregular migration. Statements coming out of Vilnius have been equally uncompromising.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lithuanian President Gitanas Naus\u0117da has made it clear that Vilnius will not immediately lift sanctions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWe have our position, and we have made it clear,\u201d Delfi<\/em> quoted him as saying. \u201cIn some cases, it aligns with the European Union\u2019s position. The ban on the export of Belarusian fertilizers is in effect at the EU level. It has been extended for 12 months, and we will revisit the issue early next year, when Lithuania holds the presidency of the EU Council.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

US leverage<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

In the same interview with LRT<\/em>, Naus\u0117da asked for patience \u201cin waiting for the US decision on the rotation of US troops in Lithuania.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He called on Washington to recognize his country as a strategically important region.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

US troops have been present in Lithuania since 2019. In June, the United States started withdrawing more than 1,000 troops along with their equipment. Usually, replacement troops arrived as part of a rotation, but that did not happen this time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reuters<\/em> reported that Washington was considering reducing the US military presence in Europe from around 80,000 troops to 25,000.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lithuania is keenly interested in maintaining a US armored shield in view of threats emanating from Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Coale may use Lithuania\u2019s interest as leverage in negotiations over potash transit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Washington has plenty of other tools, such as financial assistance programs for the military, arms supplies and trade terms.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The sanctions against Belarus have been extended until February. The measures will be reviewed under the Lithuanian presidency of the Council of the European Union.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As for Latvia, Belarus used to ship potash fertilizers through the port of Ventspils.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Assignments from Coale: easing repression, Russia<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Coale may also have communicated his home assignments to \u0141uka\u0161enka.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Most importantly, he has called on Minsk to ease political repression. That has not happened.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The New York Times<\/em> said Washington sought to woo Belarus away from Russia. That may be too much to expect. More realistically, Washington appears to be interested in preventing Russia from drawing Belarus deeper into its war against Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And \u0141uka\u0161enka made it clear on September 15 that he would not ease political repression.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He strongly denied the existence of political prisoners in Belarus, noting that Belarus does not have criminal laws specifically targeting political activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIf a citizen of Belarus or a non-citizen present here breaks Belarusian laws, we will surely respond according to law. If they deserve to be under investigation or at correctional labor colonies, they will be there,\u201d he warned.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So, \u0141uka\u0161enka may not even do his home assignment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nevertheless, Coale seems optimistic about his next trip to Belarus. He said he hoped to secure the release of at least 100 prisoners within a month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even if one prisoner is released, it will be worth the effort of conducting tough negotiations with the dictator.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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