{"id":204983,"date":"2026-09-24T10:59:59","date_gmt":"2026-09-24T07:59:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/204983\/"},"modified":"2026-09-24T11:00:00","modified_gmt":"2026-09-24T08:00:00","slug":"warsaw-tests-limits-of-lukasenkas-independence-from-moscow","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/204983\/","title":{"rendered":"Warsaw tests limits of \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s independence from Moscow"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The foreign ministers of Belarus and Poland held a brief meeting on the sidelines of a UN event in New York on September 22 as the two countries take tentative steps to ease tensions.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\n (Polish Border Guard, @Bart_Wielinski (X), Kremlin's website \/ Pozirk's collage)<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/figcaption>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Pa\u010dobut\u2019s test for the regime<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The meeting came days after the safe return of Polish minority activist Andrej Pa\u010dobut (Pol. Andrzej Poczobut) from Belarus following a week-long stay marked by fears of possible re-arrest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The visit was a test of the regime\u2019s ability to keep its word and control its repressive mechanisms. In the past, Belarusian authorities arrested hundreds of dissidents upon their return from abroad.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pa\u010dobut\u2019s early release this spring, as part of a complicated deal involving an exchange of suspected spies, removed a major point of contention between Warsaw and Minsk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In other earlier mutual concessions, Minsk significantly reduced migration pressure on the shared border, shifting the focus to Latvia, while Warsaw opened two border crossings last fall.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The spring prisoner exchange was mediated by Washington. Warsaw took advantage of the engagement between Minsk and Washington to secure the release of its citizens. But it remains unclear whether relations can improve significantly further, given the fundamental differences between the two governments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Limited de-escalation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Warsaw cannot hope to re-educate Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka so much as persuade him to respect human rights and allow greater political openness.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Foreign Minister Rados\u0142aw Sikorski has already had his fingers burned once, when he visited Minsk in November 2010 to persuade the Belarusian strongman to hold a free and fair presidential election. That election was followed by a brutal crackdown and the arrests of presidential candidates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

More recently, Sikorski said in July last year that engagement with \u0141uka\u0161enka was impossible.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Washington has found inroads and helped secure the release of hundreds of political prisoners in exchange for sanctions relief. Warsaw has also made concessions \u2014 opening the Ku\u017anica and Bobrowniki border crossings \u2014 to secure the release of Pa\u010dobut and Polish priest Grzerorz Gawe\u0142, whom Minsk accused of spying.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In return, Minsk has considerably eased migration pressure at the Belarusian-Polish border.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Warsaw has no illusions about the nature of the Belarusian regime, but is using the tools available to de-escalate tensions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Security is top priority<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Sikorski said he discussed regional security with Ry\u017eanko\u016d, noting that he asked Belarus not to allow Russia to use its airspace for drone and missile attacks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In September 2025, Belarus alarmed Poland after drones approached its territory and even shot down some of them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Apart from military risks, Warsaw also seeks to persuade Minsk to keep migration under control at the shared border.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Warsaw seems to hope that, despite political tensions, it is still possible to maintain cooperation between the military, border and other agencies to build trust, fight cross-border crime and address humanitarian issues.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Poland also seeks to protect its minority in Belarus. Minsk has already signaled its readiness to register the outlawed union of Poles, provided that it changes its official name.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Constraints imposed by Kremlin<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Belarus and Poland are also interested in restoring economic ties. Poland\u2019s exports to Belarus plunged by nearly 22 percent between 2019 and 2026 to $1.4 billion, according to UN Comtrade. Imports decreased by almost 85 percent to just $186 million.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Belarus would like to sell more goods in Poland and, more importantly, Minsk may be seeking Warsaw\u2019s assistance in unfreezing ties with the European Union.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The latter would be difficult as long as Russia continues its war in Ukraine and Minsk supports the Kremlin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Moreover, Russian President Vladimir Putin is not interested in principle in expanding Belarusian-Polish ties or Belarus\u2019 ties with the EU.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Warsaw understands this but wants to determine whether \u0141uka\u0161enka has enough independence from Moscow to move toward de-escalation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A new test is coming: Pa\u010dobut is determined to visit Belarus again soon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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