{"id":208312,"date":"2026-10-21T12:52:37","date_gmt":"2026-10-21T09:52:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/208312\/"},"modified":"2026-10-21T12:52:39","modified_gmt":"2026-10-21T09:52:39","slug":"budget-2027-revenue-to-rise-but-spending-to-be-more-restrained","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/208312\/","title":{"rendered":"Budget 2027: Revenue to rise, but spending to be more restrained"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"block-image block-image-normal\">\n\n    <img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1128\" height=\"752\" src=\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/budget1_collage_pozirk.jpg\" class=\"attachment-full size-full\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/budget1_collage_pozirk.jpg 1128w, https:\/\/pozirk.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/budget1_collage_pozirk-354x236.jpg 354w, https:\/\/pozirk.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/budget1_collage_pozirk-734x490.jpg 734w, https:\/\/pozirk.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/budget1_collage_pozirk-178x118.jpg 178w, https:\/\/pozirk.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/budget1_collage_pozirk-768x512.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1128px) 100vw, 1128px\" \/>\n    <figcaption>\n        \n                    <div class=\"block-image__author\">\n                                <span>(sb.by, Pozirk, Malgorzata Haggu (pixabay.com) \/ Pozirk&#039;s collage)<\/span>\n            <\/div>\n            <\/figcaption>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Budget to grow at a slower pace<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The 2027 draft national budget projects revenue of 58.9 billion rubels ($20 billion) and expenditure of 60.8 billion rubels ($20.4 billion). Compared with the 2026 budget plan, the government expects to collect 4.5 billion rubels more (+8.3 percent) but spend only 2.1 billion rubels more (+3.6 percent). As a result, the deficit is expected to shrink by more than half, from 4.35 billion to 1.93 billion rubels (about $646 million).<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"flourish-embed flourish-chart\" data-src=\"visualisation\/30640932\"><script src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/resources\/embed.js\"><\/script><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/visualisation\/30640932\/thumbnail\" width=\"100%\" alt=\"chart visualization\" \/><\/noscript><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>The government expects the economy to grow by 1.9 percent in 2027 and is set to keep inflation below 6 percent. Budget revenue is projected to grow faster than prices, while expenditure will increase at a considerably slower pace.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In other words, if the government meets its inflation target, the purchasing power of budget spending could decline while the tax burden on the economy increases.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This time, the budget figures are consistent with the government&#8217;s more conservative economic growth projections for 2027. In 2026, the economy is expected to expand by 2.8 percent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Budget spending growth is also set to slow, from 16.8 percent in 2026 to 3.6 percent in 2027. However, revenue is expected to rise considerably faster than expenditure, suggesting that the government is confident in its ability to increase tax collections even as economic growth slows.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This raises a key question for households and businesses: where does the government expect to find the additional money, and which expenditures does it intend to cut to reduce the deficit?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">VAT drives revenue growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>As usual, taxes account for the bulk of national budget revenue. Next year, the government expects to collect 43.5 billion rubels ($14.6 billion) in taxes, 5.2 billion rubels, or 13.6 percent, more than projected for 2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Much of this revenue will come from the value-added tax (VAT). VAT receipts are projected to jump by 19 percent, from 21.5 billion to 25.6 billion rubels ($8.6 billion). VAT alone will account for more than 90 percent of the net increase in budget revenue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Meanwhile, receipts from foreign economic activity are projected to grow much more modestly, while nontax revenues \u2014 primarily from state property, dividends, various fees and fines \u2014 are expected to rise by 10.8 percent to 7.3 billion rubels.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The government is therefore increasingly relying on domestic sources to replenish the treasury, above all a tax that people pay whenever they purchase goods and services.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Is Moscow becoming less generous?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>There is another major source of budget revenue that state propaganda mentions far less often: grants and other non-repayable transfers from abroad.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>These are projected to total 5.28 billion rubels ($1.8 billion) in 2027, down from 6.67 billion rubels in 2026. The reduction of nearly 1.4 billion rubels, or 20.8 percent, is substantial.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>These transfers are linked to Belarus\u2019 financial relations with Russia, including compensation mechanisms associated with oil and tax agreements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Although the amount is set to fall considerably from last year, it will still account for almost 9 percent of national budget revenue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That is a substantial sum, without which balancing the budget would be much more difficult. Belarus has also relied on such transfers for many years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, the decline in funding from Moscow does not necessarily mean that the Kremlin has decided to cut its support.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Alongside the nearly 1.4 billion rubel reduction in non-repayable foreign transfers, Belarus\u2019 debt-servicing costs are expected to fall by about 2.2 billion rubels next year, from 6 billion to 3.8 billion rubels.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>These changes may reflect new agreements with creditors, revised interest terms or repayment schedules. It is also possible that the peak in debt payments has already passed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It is difficult to determine the exact reason, as information on Belarus\u2019 debt by creditor and maturity has been inaccessible in recent years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It is therefore too early to conclude that Russian support for Belarus is actually declining or that the country\u2019s financial dependence on the Kremlin is easing. The support may simply be changing form. Instead of transferring additional money to Minsk, Moscow may have agreed to ease its existing debt burden.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"flourish-embed flourish-chart\" data-src=\"visualisation\/30641014\"><script src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/resources\/embed.js\"><\/script><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/visualisation\/30641014\/thumbnail\" width=\"100%\" alt=\"chart visualization\" \/><\/noscript><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Finance ministry plays it safe<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Even under this scenario, the 2027 budget will remain in deficit. However, the planned deficit of 1.93 billion rubels (about $650 million) is more than twice as small as last year&#8217;s.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It is worth bearing in mind that the finance ministry traditionally takes a cautious approach to budget planning.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Experience in recent years shows that the actual deficit is often significantly smaller than projected and can even give way to a surplus. For example, the budgets planned with deficits in 2023 and 2024 both ended up recording revenues in excess of expenditure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Nevertheless, the fact that officials are once again projecting a deficit is telling. Even with tax revenues expected to rise and debt-servicing costs to fall, the government does not expect current revenues to fully cover its spending needs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The next article will take a closer look at how the money is to be spent, which areas will receive additional funding and which will have to make do with less.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"insert-block\">\n\n    <div class=\"insert-block__img\">\n        <img decoding=\"async\" width=\"354\" height=\"236\" src=\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/turchin_pravitelstvo_press-354x236.jpg\" class=\"attachment-medium size-medium\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/turchin_pravitelstvo_press-354x236.jpg 354w, https:\/\/pozirk.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/turchin_pravitelstvo_press-734x490.jpg 734w, https:\/\/pozirk.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/turchin_pravitelstvo_press-178x118.jpg 178w, https:\/\/pozirk.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/turchin_pravitelstvo_press-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/pozirk.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/turchin_pravitelstvo_press.jpg 1128w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 354px) 100vw, 354px\" \/>                        <label class=\"insert-block__tag--mobile\"> Economy<\/label>\n\n                <\/div>\n    <div class=\"insert-block__text\">\n                    <label class=\"insert-block__tag\">Economy<\/label>\n                <h3 class=\"insert-block__title\">PM Tur\u010dyn optimistic about Belarus\u2019 economic outlook<\/h3>\n        <div class=\"insert-block__descr\">June 23, Pozirk. Belarus\u2019 five-month performance \u201cinspires cautious optimism,\u201d Prime Minister Alaksandar Tur\u010dyn has told journalists in Minsk following his meeting with Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka. \u201cWe have embarked on a path of growth, albeit modest, and our projections indicate that this &#8230;<\/div>\n        <a class=\"insert-block__btn-block\" href=\"\/en\/news\/192995\">\n            <button class=\"btn\">\n                <div class='btn__text'>Read <\/div>\n            <\/button>\n        <\/a>\n    <\/div>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Budget to grow at a slower pace The 2027 draft national budget projects revenue of 58.9 billion rubels ($20 billion) and expenditure of 60.8 billion rubels ($20.4 billion). Compared with the 2026 budget plan, the government expects to collect 4.5 billion rubels more (+8.3 percent) but spend only 2.1 billion rubels more (+3.6 percent). As [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":46,"featured_media":208126,"template":"","rubric":[24],"class_list":["post-208312","longreads","type-longreads","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v25.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Budget 2027: Revenue to rise, but spending to be more restrained | Pozirk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Budget to grow at a slower pace The 2027 draft national budget projects revenue of 58.9 billion rubels ($20 billion) and expenditure of 60.8 billion\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/208312\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" 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