{"id":210212,"date":"2026-11-03T15:42:25","date_gmt":"2026-11-03T12:42:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/210212\/"},"modified":"2026-11-03T15:42:30","modified_gmt":"2026-11-03T12:42:30","slug":"belarus-shrinking-foreign-debt-comes-at-a-cost-to-growth","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/210212\/","title":{"rendered":"Belarus\u2019 shrinking foreign debt comes at a cost to growth"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong>Belarus\u2019 draft 2027 national budget provides for a sharp decline in external public debt repayments to 4.7 billion rubels for the principal, significantly less than in 2026. However, a smaller debt is not an indicator of a robust economy.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Small debt in 1990s<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Until the mid-2000s, Belarus\u2019 debt was relatively small. The country borrowed money in the 1990s, but not much or often. The economy could not sustain large debts, the West was reluctant to lend after Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka expanded his powers in a disputed referendum in 1996, while Russia did not have much money to support its ally.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Besides, \u0141uka\u0161enka was not particularly keen on borrowing:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cThe undeniable advantage of our economic development model is that we have not fallen into debt,\u201d he said in his address to parliament in 2007. \u201cA loan is a trap that will catch not us, but our children and grandchildren.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>According to the World Bank, Belarus\u2019 external debt amounted to around $5 billion in 2005, with the government itself accounting for only a small share; the rest was commercial debt. The model of \u201ccheap Russian gas and oil in exchange for kisses\u201d made it possible to get by with almost no borrowing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Everything changed in 2007, when Moscow raised energy prices. Minsk had to start borrowing, primarily from Russia. Between 2007 and 2008, its debt to Russia increased from $300 million to $2.7 billion. \u0141uka\u0161enka explained:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cWe were in a difficult position, practically on our knees before individual organizations and countries, begging for money to support our people and economy. We received that support,\u201d he said in his address to parliament in 2010.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The economy became increasingly dependent on borrowing, and three successive waves of loans followed. During the 2009 crisis, Belarus received a loan from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), with its obligations to the fund rising to $3.4\u20134 billion. In 2010\u20132011, the country entered the Eurobond market for the first time, and following the 2011 devaluation, it received $3 billion from the Eurasian Economic Community Anti-Crisis Fund (now the Eurasian Fund for Stabilization and Development).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Meanwhile, China extended loans for the Great Stone industrial park and industrial modernization. Belarus\u2019 debt to China grew to nearly $5 billion in 2019, making the country one of China&#8217;s largest borrowers in Europe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The largest loan came from Russia &#8212; $10 billion for the Belarusian nuclear power plant, under an agreement signed in 2011. The Belarusian ruler was initially unhappy with a high interest rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cThey gave us a loan for the nuclear power plant at 4.8 percent. Vietnam got less than 3 percent,\u201d \u0141uka\u0161enka said at a news conference in 2019.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But later he acknowledged that Belarus benefited from the arrangement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cWe saved a considerable amount of money. We could build an entire power unit with the money saved on the first loan,\u201d \u0141uka\u0161enka said in the Kremlin in 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>According to the World Bank, Belarus\u2019 total external debt grew from $15 billion in 2008 to $41.8 billion in 2020. Public and publicly guaranteed debt accounted for about half of that amount. At the end of 2024, Belarus\u2019 external public and publicly guaranteed debt, including obligations to the IMF, fell to $17.7 billion. Of this, $7.6 billion, or 43 percent, was owed to Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"flourish-embed flourish-chart\" data-src=\"visualisation\/30785523\"><script src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/resources\/embed.js\"><\/script><noscript><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/visualisation\/30785523\/thumbnail\" width=\"100%\" alt=\"chart visualization\" \/><\/noscript><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Debt restructuring<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Until 2020, Minsk generally serviced its debt reliably, although the arrangement sometimes resembled a merry-go-round: old debts were repaid with new loans, most often provided by Moscow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As sanctions multiplied, Belarus faced growing difficulties with international payments, affecting Eurobond holders. Minsk then changed its repayment procedures: the finance ministry transferred money in Belarusian rubels to accounts at Belarusian banks. To receive a payment, investors had to open such an account in person and prove ownership of the bonds. Against this backdrop, Moody&#8217;s and Fitch credit rating agencies declared Belarus in default on its external bonds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Minsk continued to pay Chinese creditors reliably: Belarus&#8217; debt to China nearly halved between 2019 and 2024. When state-owned enterprises undergoing Chinese-funded reconstruction could not meet their obligations, the government took over their debts. This happened with the Svetlahorsk Pulp and Board Mill and cement plants, where state guarantees amounted to hundreds of millions of dollars.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Relations with Russia followed a different pattern, involving regular repayment deferrals and the refinancing of old debts with new loans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Judging by data from the Belarusian finance ministry and central bank, 2026 was an exception. It saw peak public debt repayments: in the first half of 2026, Belarus paid $4.2 billion toward the principal, twice as much as in the same period a year earlier. However, this figure covers the obligations of all sectors of the economy, not just the government. External debt owed by the public sector fell by $2.7 billion to $14.7 billion, without new borrowing and through the use of accumulated funds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Moreover, the 2027 budget envisages a further reduction, lowering the ceiling on external public debt from $18 billion to $15 billion. However, these upbeat figures cannot be independently verified. Detailed information on whom Belarus owes, how much and on what terms is not published, while the terms of agreements with Russia, its main creditor, remain classified. The public is expected to take the finance ministry at its word.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Between debt and economic growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The reduction in the debt burden envisaged in the 2027 budget is actually a double-edged development. On the one hand, the burden on the budget is indeed easing, and this is undoubtedly what officials and state-run media will emphasize. On the other, it may reflect the fact that Belarus is simply finding it increasingly difficult to borrow. Yet credit is one of the foundations of a modern economy, and the growth forecast of less than 2 percent for next year illustrates a simple connection: access to credit is an important source of financing for investment and economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>There are several reasons for this, and they reinforce one another. Politics makes it difficult for Minsk to find new creditworthy lenders, while it has fallen out with its former creditors, including the World Bank, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development and Eurobond holders. China also appears to be losing interest. Many Chinese projects in Belarus were linked to the country&#8217;s potential as a logistics bridge to Europe, but under sanctions, Beijing is increasingly questioning the value of that bridge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Russia, of course, remains an option, but it is becoming a less solvent creditor with each passing year. Its reserves have been significantly depleted, while its budget deficit is growing. Moscow will probably find the money to support loyal allies, including Minsk, but such support will not come free of charge. Its price will be political.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As a result, the declining debt burden is going hand in hand with a shrinking potential for economic growth in Belarus. The familiar mantra, \u201cHave you seen the US national debt?\u201d does not work here. The size of a country&#8217;s debt says relatively little about the state of its economy, particularly when its debt is in demand and the borrower services it efficiently and on time. A country such as Belarus, with a much smaller public debt, can face far greater problems than its neighbors, whose debt is many times higher.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"insert-block\">\n\n    <div class=\"insert-block__img\">\n        <img decoding=\"async\" width=\"354\" height=\"236\" src=\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/budget3_collage_pozirk-354x236.jpg\" class=\"attachment-medium size-medium\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/budget3_collage_pozirk-354x236.jpg 354w, https:\/\/pozirk.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/budget3_collage_pozirk-734x490.jpg 734w, https:\/\/pozirk.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/budget3_collage_pozirk-178x118.jpg 178w, https:\/\/pozirk.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/budget3_collage_pozirk-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/pozirk.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/budget3_collage_pozirk.jpg 1128w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 354px) 100vw, 354px\" \/>                        <label class=\"insert-block__tag--mobile\"> Economy<\/label>\n\n                            <label class=\"insert-block__tag--mobile\"> Politics<\/label>\n\n                            <label class=\"insert-block__tag--mobile\"> The Viewer<\/label>\n\n                <\/div>\n    <div class=\"insert-block__text\">\n                    <label class=\"insert-block__tag\">Economy, Politics, The Viewer<\/label>\n                <h3 class=\"insert-block__title\">Budget 2027: Guns before butter<\/h3>\n        <div class=\"insert-block__descr\">Security spending on the rise Rising defense and security spending is a trend across the region. Russia and Ukraine are directly involved in the confrontation, while countries nearby are also increasing military spending. Belarus is no exception: the defense and &#8230;<\/div>\n        <a class=\"insert-block__btn-block\" href=\"\/en\/longreads\/208497\">\n            <button class=\"btn\">\n                <div class='btn__text'>Read <\/div>\n            <\/button>\n        <\/a>\n    <\/div>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Belarus\u2019 draft 2027 national budget provides for a sharp decline in external public debt repayments to 4.7 billion rubels for the principal, significantly less than in 2026. However, a smaller debt is not an indicator of a robust economy. Small debt in 1990s Until the mid-2000s, Belarus\u2019 debt was relatively small. The country borrowed money [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":46,"featured_media":61764,"template":"","rubric":[24],"class_list":["post-210212","longreads","type-longreads","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v25.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Belarus\u2019 shrinking foreign debt comes at a cost to growth | Pozirk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Belarus\u2019 draft 2027 national budget provides for a sharp decline in external public debt repayments to 4.7 billion rubels for the principal, significantly\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/210212\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta 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