{"id":210615,"date":"2026-11-05T14:29:30","date_gmt":"2026-11-05T11:29:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/210615\/"},"modified":"2026-11-05T14:29:32","modified_gmt":"2026-11-05T11:29:32","slug":"democrats-triumph-could-derail-lukasenkas-grand-bargain-with-washington","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/210615\/","title":{"rendered":"Democrats\u2019 triumph could derail \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s grand bargain with Washington"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The Republican Party has suffered a crushing defeat in the midterm congressional elections, with Democrats winning control of both chambers of Congress and potentially weakening President Donald Trump\u2019s influence over US policy. The setback could undermine the US president\u2019s ability to persuade European allies to allow Belarusian potash to transit through Lithuania.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\n (White House)<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/figcaption>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The Democrats\u2019 lead exceeded all polling forecasts and was so overwhelming that Trump has publicly conceded defeat, despite earlier concerns that he might refuse to accept the results.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Preliminary results show Democrats winning 240 seats in the House of Representatives (out of 435) and 54 in the Senate (out of 100). Vote counting is still underway.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The political shift in the United States could have implications for Belarus and the wider Eastern European region.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Klaip\u0117da potash transit<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The cornerstone of Belarusian-American relations over the past two years has been a \u201cgrand bargain\u201d discussed by the two leaders. Trump has lavished praise on Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka, calling him a \u201cstrong leader,\u201d and even invited him to visit the United States. He has eased sanctions. In return, the Belarusian ruler has released hundreds of political prisoners following visits to Minsk by US special envoy John Coale.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These steps were meant to pave the way for the much-touted bargain, whose crowning achievement was supposed to be the release of all, or at least the overwhelming majority, of political prisoners in Belarus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to many experts, Coale\u2019s latest visit to Minsk did not go well. Contrary to expectations, \u0141uka\u0161enka released only 25 prisoners instead of 250. He also made it clear that Washington must deliver on its earlier promises.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

One of those promises, judging by all accounts, concerns the resumption of Belarusian potash fertilizer shipments through the port of Klaip\u0117da. However, Washington has made no breakthrough in persuading the European Union and Lithuania to lift sanctions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now that Republicans have suffered a resounding defeat, the idea of using Washington to pressure Europe may be effectively dead. If the EU has already managed to withstand pressure from the White House, it has even less reason to yield now that Trump has become a lame duck.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trump has still much power<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The reason for the Republicans\u2019 electoral defeat is easy to identify: Donald Trump. Two years in office have been enough to drive his approval ratings deep into negative territory.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Among the policies and developments that have made him unpopular with Americans are the war in Iran and the related surge in fuel prices, heavy-handed efforts to combat illegal immigration, and his open support for Russia in its war against Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trump will remain president for another two years and retain control over foreign policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Moreover, the newly elected Congress will not convene until January 3. Only then will Democratic lawmakers be able to use their new majority to launch investigations and challenge the administration.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Several high-profile congressional investigations have already been announced into various affairs and scandals, ranging from corruption allegations to a recent diesel deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Impeachment has also been discussed, although its prospects are currently considered slim.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In any case, Republicans will retain control of Congress for the next two months, and the White House administration will face no immediate congressional challenge. Trump certainly has no intention of sitting idle in the meantime.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What about political prisoners?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The last US delegation visited Belarus in mid-September. Following the visit, special envoy Coale said he intended to return to Minsk \u201cin about a month.\u201d More than six weeks have passed, but there is still no sign of him. Nevertheless, this does not mean that negotiations over the release of political prisoners have stalled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There are still two months before the new Congress takes office, and nothing suggests that Coale\u2019s mission has been called off. He remains in his post and has a job to do. Moreover, the mission should not be discontinued in principle: there has long been bipartisan consensus in the United States on condemning repression in Belarus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka, too, appears to have little incentive to abandon the American track. So what if Trump lost the midterm elections? That is no reason to stop trading in human lives. It is a business the Minsk autocrat knows well.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

After all, \u0141uka\u0161enka began releasing political prisoners in groups as early as July 2024, under Joe Biden\u2019s administration, when he freed five people, including politician Ryhor Kastusio\u016d. Over the following six months, before Trump returned to the White House, more than 200 people were released from Belarusian prisons under so-called pardons. No reciprocal concessions from the West were reported at the time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka views his prisoners as commodities with a price tag. As long as there is demand, the business will continue. The EU is demanding a great deal from Minsk. With Democrats taking control of Congress, Washington\u2019s approach could also become tougher. This would change the terms of the grand bargain, but would not necessarily bring it to an end.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Minsk has little reason to walk away from the deal. An experienced trafficker in human lives, \u0141uka\u0161enka has long been signaling to Europe that it is time to \u201creach an agreement.\u201d He is interested in normalizing relations and is calculating his moves with an eye on his political future. He will therefore remain in the game even after power in Congress changes hands. He may simply stop calling himself a \u201cTrumpist,\u201d while Belarusian propaganda may start grouping the United States with the European Union under the label of \u201cthe collective West.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Orb\u00e1n, Vu\u010di\u0107 \u2014 who\u2019s next?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The US president is traditionally described as the most powerful politician in the world, and his powers are indeed considerable. However, Congress should not be underestimated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Congress passes laws, and it is worth recalling that support for Ukraine in its resistance to Russian aggression enjoys broad bipartisan backing in the United States. Kyiv has the support not only of Democrats but also of a substantial part of the Republican Party \u2014 traditional Republicans rather than members of the MAGA movement. If the new Congress takes up legislation to restore broad support for Ukraine, Trump would risk a great deal by vetoing it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even if the president takes that risk, one thing is clear: the Democrats\u2019 election victory is welcome news for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Unblocking the aid packages Ukraine urgently needs at this stage of the war could become a realistic possibility. This, too, is a potential consequence of the November 3 vote.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There is another consequence, perhaps still largely symbolic. Amid persistent concerns about the decline of democracy in the Western world, another politician with authoritarian tendencies has suffered an electoral setback. First, Hungary\u2019s longtime Prime Minister Viktor Orb\u00e1n suffered a resounding election defeat. Then it was Alexander Vu\u010di\u0107\u2019s turn in Serbia. Trump is now joining the ranks of politicians rejected by voters.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The threat posed by right-wing populism has not disappeared. Deep political polarization in many democratic societies shows no signs of easing. Nevertheless, a series of electoral setbacks for several prominent conservative leaders may offer grounds for greater optimism about the Western world\u2019s ability to emerge from its prolonged period of political turbulence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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