{"id":2877,"date":"2023-09-27T15:13:11","date_gmt":"2023-09-27T12:13:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/api.pozirk.online\/?post_type=longreads&p=2877"},"modified":"2023-09-27T15:13:12","modified_gmt":"2023-09-27T12:13:12","slug":"belarusian-polish-tension-fraught-with-dangerous-escalation","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/2877\/","title":{"rendered":"Belarusian-Polish tension fraught with dangerous escalation"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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\n\n \u0424\u043e\u0442\u043e \u0438\u043b\u043b\u044e\u0441\u0442\u0440\u0430\u0442\u0438\u0432\u043d\u043e\u0435\n <\/div>\n \n
\n \u0418\u0441\u0442\u043e\u0447\u043d\u0438\u043a: PAP<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/figcaption>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Tension between Minsk and Warsaw nears the boiling point after a recent border incident. The sides do not trust as threats are blown out of proportion.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Minsk claims Polish helicopter flew over Belarus<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Days after Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka had said Minsk was ready to \u201crestore good relations with neighbors\u201d and invited Polish observers to monitor the ongoing Collective Security Treaty Organization\u2019s exercise, the country\u2019s border patrol authority lashed out at Poland for allegedly flying its helicopter over Belarus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The State Border Committee said that a Polish Mi-24 had flown 1,200 meters over the Hrodna province.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Poland’s Armed Forces Operational Command dismissed the claim as “a blatant lie and provocation,” while the country\u2019s interior minister, Mariusz Kami\u0144ski, said that Belarus should be closely monitored because Russian troops were taking part in the exercise there.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A month before, the Polish defense ministry reported that two Belarusian helicopters had flown over Poland near the village of Bia\u0142owie\u017ca at a low altitude. The report was followed by a diplomatic spat between the two countries that were already at odds over allegations of human rights abuses and security concerns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mixed signals coming out of Minsk<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s reconciliatory message was lost on Poland because it was distorted by threats and accusations. The Belarusian strongman has repeatedly boasted of possessing nuclear weapons, threatened to unleash Wagner mercenaries and accused Warsaw of toying with aggressive plans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Warsaw probably sees the mixed signals as an attempt to cause confusion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Most importantly, \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s statement of willingness to improve ties has not been supported by action. Minsk continues to orchestrate migrant attacks on Poland and Lithuania. It has allowed Russia to store its nuclear ammunition in Belarus, while many relocated Wagner mercenaries are still hanging around in Asipovi\u010dy, Minsk region.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Interestingly, \u0141uka\u0161enka publicly invited Polish observers to Combat Brotherhood on August 31, just one day before the start of the exercise. Taking into account bureaucratic formalities, they would almost certainly miss the show. Not a surprise, Warsaw turned down the invitation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What if<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The lack of trust plagues Belarusian-Polish relations. Both sides suspect each other of evil designs and tend to blow threats out of proportion. Minsk is wary of Poland\u2019s effort to beef up security, including its invitation for more troops and equipment from NATO. It exaggerates the threat for political reasons.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Warsaw and Vilnius exaggerate the menace associated with the presence of Wagner Group mercenaries in Belarus. The private army must be in disarray after the death of its leader Yevgeny Prigozhin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Combat Brotherhood, an exercise involving around 2,500 troops and 500 units of equipment, is no big deal. Russia could not send a big contingent as it struggles to fight off Ukraine\u2019s offensive. Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are represented in small numbers. These countries are not interested in confrontation with NATO.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given the lack of trust, the incidents involving helicopters may be quite dangerous. What if troops that spot a border violation shoot down the intruder? With tensions already nearing the boiling point, an escalation may have catastrophic consequences.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Tension between Minsk and Warsaw nears the boiling point after a recent border incident. The sides do not trust as threats are blown out of proportion. Minsk claims Polish helicopter flew over Belarus Days after Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka had said Minsk was ready to \u201crestore good relations with neighbors\u201d and invited Polish observers to monitor the […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":20,"featured_media":2871,"template":"","rubric":[14,22],"class_list":["post-2877","longreads","type-longreads","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","rubric-politics","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nBelarusian-Polish tension fraught with dangerous escalation | Pozirk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Tension between Minsk and Warsaw nears the boiling point after a recent border incident. 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