{"id":4151,"date":"2023-10-09T09:30:00","date_gmt":"2023-10-09T06:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/api.pozirk.online\/?post_type=longreads&p=4151"},"modified":"2026-03-09T20:10:49","modified_gmt":"2026-03-09T20:10:49","slug":"minsk-not-to-benefit-from-polands-election","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/4151\/","title":{"rendered":"Minsk not to benefit from Poland\u2019s election"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

By Via\u010desla\u016d Kora\u015bcie\u0144, Pozirk<\/em>\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Polish voters will go to the polls on October 15 to elect members of both chambers of the National Assembly, the Sejm (460 seats) and the Senate (100 seats), for the next four years.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Before 2020, Belarusians were not so much interested in Polish politics, whereas now Poland plays an important role in European resistance to Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka, and hosts hundreds of thousands of Belarusians, including those who fled their country after the 2020 protests. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Polish political landscape <\/h4>\n\n\n\n

Parliamentary elections are a landmark in Poland. The Sejm forms the government that makes all important domestic and foreign-policy decisions. The president in Poland, like in many other democracies, has limited powers. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Weeks before the elections, the Law and Justice party (PiS) had a lead of 32 percent to 28.2 percent over the Civic Coalition (Koalicja Obywatelska), according to a United Surveys poll. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Founded by twins Lech and Jaroslaw Kaczynski, PiS has ruled Poland since 2015. The right-wing party has a conservative ideology and cultivates nationalist sentiment and Catholicism. A ban on abortion, a suspicious attitude towards LGBT and regular disputes with the European Union \u2013 its agenda appeals mainly to older Poles living in the eastern part of the country and outside large cities. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Civic Coalition\u2019s stronghold, the Civic Platform party, is headed by Donald Tusk. He served as prime minister from 2007 to 2014 and is now an opposition leader. Ideologically, the moderate left coalition contrasts with PiS, advocating for liberal values, secularism and close cooperation with Brussels. Its voters are different. They are usually young educated people with pro-Western views. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The current relations between the government and the opposition in Poland are uncompromising. Experts rule out any cooperation after the elections, and therefore one of the two will rule \u2013 either PiS or Koalicja Obywatelska. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Both options are bad for Minsk <\/h4>\n\n\n\n

Official Minsk has taken an openly hostile attitude towards Poland. Belarusian authorities and propaganda have ramped up aggressive rhetoric toward Warsaw. In the last couple of years, Minsk has engineered a migration crisis at the border with Poland, closed Polish schools and NGOs and persecuted Polish community leaders. Polish officials accused Belarusian authorities of giving orders to destroy graves of Polish soldiers in Belarus. Minsk has been trying to drive a wedge between what it calls \u201cordinary Poles\u201d and Poland\u2019s \u201cmad\u201d leadership. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka has repeatedly accused Poland of harboring plans to invade Belarus, threatened to unleash Wagner mercenaries and said that President Andrzej Duda had \u201clost his mind.\u201d <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Belarusian propaganda has labeled the Polish government \u201cthe Duda-Morawiecki regime.\u201d In November 2021, against the backdrop of the migration crisis, the Prosecutor General\u2019s Office of Belarus opened a criminal case against \u201chigher officials of Poland.\u201d <\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is obvious that the Belarusian ruler has an extremely negative attitude towards the current policy of Warsaw, but would a change of the elite in Poland bring him any benefits? <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cI think \u0141uka\u0161enka would be happy if the government in Poland changed,\u201d political analyst Alexander Friedman told The Viewer. \u201cHe has a very bad record with PiS. This is because of both migrants at the border and the general determination of the ruling Polish party. On the other hand, the election of Tusk would benefit neither \u0141uka\u0161enka nor Russia. It turns out that all options are bad for Minsk.” <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Indeed, if there is unity on any issues between the two major parties, then one of them is the attitude towards the dictatorship in Belarus. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Both are critical of the \u0141uka\u0161enka regime and favor Belarus\u2019 pro-democracy forces. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWhen \u0141uka\u0161enka makes any statements about Poland, his rhetoric is not conscious, it is not aimed at playing along with anyone,\u201d Friedman said. \u201cThese are his personal emotions. Yes, he would like PiS to disappear, or he would like at least to outlast it politically. At the same time, he understands that the opposition will not bring him anything good either. Therefore, \u0141uka\u0161enka is not playing any conscious game with Poland. At least, that’s what it looks like.” <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Perhaps the maximum that Minsk can expect if the Polish opposition comes to power is that Warsaw might tone down its criticism of the Belarusian ruler. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cYes, PiS\u2019s rhetoric is more aggressive, rougher,\u201d Friedman said. \u201cTusk’s party is more pro-European, centrist, liberal, and reserved. If the opposition wins the elections, Poland will likely resolve its differences with the European Union and work closely with Brussels. Perhaps, its reaction to the situation at the border with Belarus will not be so harsh.” <\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, he stressed, Poland\u2019s principled stance \u201cwill not change radically.\u201d <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Perhaps, understanding this, Minsk has recently made clumsy attempts to flirt with Warsaw. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Rudko\u016dski: Belarus hardly features in debate <\/h4>\n\n\n\n

Poland remains the most popular destination for political and economic emigrants from Belarus. The Polish foreign ministry has issued more than 778,000 visas to Belarusians since 2020. An estimated 300,000 Belarusian nationals stay in Poland. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some of them have fled the country for fear of reprisals, others found jobs or relocated with IT companies, but in any case they have run away from the gloomy postelection reality into which \u0141uka\u0161enka plunged the country at the end of the third decade of his rule. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The upcoming election is also interesting from another perspective. How will life of Belarusian nationals change if the opposition wins? <\/p>\n\n\n\n

PiS is friendly towards immigrants from Belarus. The ruling party makes a clear distinction between Belarusian society and the government, understanding that Polish visas are usually requested by active, educated and competent Belarusians in the prime of their lives. But what is the Tusk\u2019s coalition vision in this regard? <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Piotra Rudko\u016dski, a Belarusian political scientist based in Poland, said that the Polish government\u2019s attitude is unlikely to change regardless of the outcome of the election. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe topic of Belarus is almost absent from the platforms of either the opposition or the ruling party,\u201d he told The Viewer. \u201cHowever, the platform of the Left [a leftist coalition] includes an item about \u2018supporting the fight against Russian and Belarusian autocrats,\u2019 although it is difficult to perceive it as a binding statement.\u201d <\/p>\n\n\n\n

In his opinion, a lack of attention to Belarus in the run-up to the vote is \u201ceven good.\u201d <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cGiven the strong polarization in Polish politics and Polish public opinion, I assume that the introduction of the Belarusian issue into the election agenda would make this topic a political tool,\u201d Rudko\u016dski explained. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cNo matter who comes to power, the basic principles \u2013 the non-recognition of the \u0141uka\u0161enka regime and assistance to Belarusian civil society – will remain unchanged,\u201d he said. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe only thing that can change is the methodology. For example, if the opposition wins, the Polish government will have better opportunities to work closely with the EU on the Belarusian issue. However, this is already a question of methods. The basic principles, I repeat, will remain the same in any case,\u201d he added. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Polls: conservatives, liberals neck to neck<\/h4>\n\n\n\n

The Civic Coalition held another mass rally in Warsaw on October 1, the \u201cMarch of a Million Hearts,\u201d with up to a million people taking part, according to some estimates. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Polish opposition is highly energized. But Tusk\u2019s movement is not yet favorite to win. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Both PiS and its opponents do not have enough electoral support right now to form a future government of their own. The Polish political heavyweights are unlikely to make a clean sweep on October 15. The cabinet of ministers will have to be formed through negotiations with allied third forces. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kaczynski\u2019s conservatives and Tusk\u2019s liberals are still hoping to win over undecided voters (5.1 percent). <\/p>\n\n\n\n

One way or another, no one can predict the outcome. The uncertainty worries the Belarusian authorities. In any case, the experts interviewed are confident that no matter the outcome, Minsk will not benefit from it.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Via\u010desla\u016d Kora\u015bcie\u0144, Pozirk\u00a0 Polish voters will go to the polls on October 15 to elect members of both chambers of the National Assembly, the Sejm (460 seats) and the Senate (100 seats), for the next four years.\u00a0 Before 2020, Belarusians were not so much interested in Polish politics, whereas now Poland plays an important […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":83,"featured_media":3861,"template":"","rubric":[24],"class_list":["post-4151","longreads","type-longreads","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nMinsk not to benefit from Poland\u2019s election | Pozirk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"By Via\u010desla\u016d Kora\u015bcie\u0144, Pozirk\u00a0 Polish voters will go to the polls on October 15 to elect members of both chambers of the National Assembly, the Sejm (460\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" 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