{"id":4153,"date":"2023-10-09T09:55:00","date_gmt":"2023-10-09T06:55:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/api.pozirk.online\/?post_type=longreads&p=4153"},"modified":"2023-10-09T10:01:49","modified_gmt":"2023-10-09T07:01:49","slug":"karabach-tragedy-shows-moscows-unreliability-minsk-blames-us-pashinyan","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/4153\/","title":{"rendered":"Karabach tragedy shows Moscow’s unreliability, Minsk blames US, Pashinyan"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The events in Karabakh show how easily Moscow can abandon its allies. Apparently Belarusian authorities should also understand it. But what choice do they have? The helplessness of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) has also become obvious.\u00a0<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Minsk keeps silent, while its propaganda blames the United States and the current Armenian government. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

CSTO failure to respond <\/h4>\n\n\n\n

While the Nagorno-Karabakh crisis is entering its final stage, Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka, who is usually fast to comment on major international developments, keeps silent. Despite all the diplomatic efforts by external players, Azerbaijan used military force to win a decisive victory. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

As it usually happens in military conflicts, the winner takes it all. Nagorno-Karabakh ceases to exist as a geopolitical phenomenon and a political agency, and becomes an object of history and Armenian mythology. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

After the war that lasted 35 years, about 100,000 ethnic Armenians have already left the exclave in Azerbaijan for Armenia. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Their exodus from their ancestral territory cannot be categorized as ethnic cleansing. After all, they are leaving voluntarily. The Azerbaijani foreign ministry has called on Armenians to stay and integrate into Azerbaijani society. However, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev said that Baku would resettle 150,000 Azerbaijanis to the region. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Anyway, the exodus is definitely a humanitarian catastrophe. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Armenia is a member of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) whose charter requires allies to provide assistance to each other in the event of external aggression. However, the CSTO does not interpret the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict as an attack on its ally. After all, Nagorno-Karabakh is the internationally recognized territory of Azerbaijan. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

What does CSTO do? <\/h4>\n\n\n\n

Armenia\u2019s humanitarian crisis is an obvious security threat, and it would be logical for its allies to come to rescue. However, the CSTO has not taken any action. It did not even call an emergency summit. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is a very significant point. When mass protests broke out in Kazakhstan in early 2022, the CSTO immediately sent troops to save the Kassym-Jomart Tokayev government. Now that tens of thousands of people are fleeing to Armenia, with refugees in need of food and shelter, the CSTO would not react. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

A natural question arises: what is the role of this organization? In reality, it turns out, it is there to protect the ruling regimes, not the peoples. No wonder, the Armenian leadership considers leaving the CSTO. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Russia’s failure to intervene was decisive. Moscow cannot be bothered about Armenia now that it has it hands full in Ukraine. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Perhaps, the main lesson of the Nagorno-Karabakh tragedy can be described as follows: faced with difficulties Russia lets its allies down. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

It happened during and after the collapse of the USSR, when Moscow abandoned its friends, such as Afghanistan, Cuba and Vietnam. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka silent, his media blame Yerevan, Washington<\/h4>\n\n\n\n

The Belarusian foreign ministry has limited its response to a statement of concern about the escalation. \u0141uka\u0161enka keeps silent, while his media criticize Armenia and support Azerbaijan. They repeat Russian media narratives.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

SB. Belarus Segodnya<\/em>, the biggest state-controlled newspaper, in an article published on September 20, blamed Washington, and also the Armenian leadership for appealing to the West for help. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The author, Aliaksandr Ci\u0161\u010danka says: \u201cWe should expect that in the near future Yerevan will be turned into \u2018Kyiv of the Caucasus.\u2019 Now, according to the pattern, the topic of NATO prospects and Western security guarantees will be injected in the Armenian interests . . . The purpose of this American combination with Armenia is to create a new parallel source of instability around Russia.” <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The newspaper does not say that Yerevan appealed to the West only after Russia and the CSTO refused to help it. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Minsk has a grudge against Pashinyan <\/h4>\n\n\n\n

Formally, Minsk has taken a neutral position, but in reality, it has maintained stronger ties with Azerbaijan than with Armenia. Several years ago, Belarus sold Baku Polonez multiple launch rocket systems. \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s personal relations with Aliyev are much better than with Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Belarusian leader does not seem to fully trust Pashinyan because he came to power in 2018 as a result of popular protests. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although he later won elections twice, as a politician he was still \u201cborn by the revolution.\u201d For the authoritarian leaders of the CSTO countries, such a partner is a political stranger. They all accepted him with a barely disguised discontent. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

In 2018, \u0141uka\u0161enka publically called for establishing a mechanism for collective defense of authoritarian regimes from popular revolutions, a kind of anti-revolutionary union within the Commonwealth of Independent States. The mechanism was called into action during popular protests in Kazakhstan in 2022. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

On top of that, immediately after the Armenian revolution, Minsk and Yerevan clashed over CSTO chairmanship. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Therefore, the Russian and Belarusian media criticism of Armenia is not only a revenge response for its overtures to the West, but also for the 2018 revolution.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The events in Karabakh show how easily Moscow can abandon its allies. Apparently Belarusian authorities should also understand it. But what choice do they have? The helplessness of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) has also become obvious.\u00a0 Minsk keeps silent, while its propaganda blames the United States and the current Armenian government.  CSTO failure […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":20,"featured_media":3631,"template":"","rubric":[24],"class_list":["post-4153","longreads","type-longreads","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nKarabach tragedy shows Moscow's unreliability, Minsk blames US, Pashinyan | Pozirk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The events in Karabakh show how easily Moscow can abandon its allies. Apparently Belarusian authorities should also understand it. 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