{"id":4350,"date":"2023-10-11T17:31:00","date_gmt":"2023-10-11T14:31:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/api.pozirk.online\/?post_type=longreads&p=4350"},"modified":"2023-10-17T22:54:55","modified_gmt":"2023-10-17T19:54:55","slug":"no-more-democracy-games-with-the-west","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/4350\/","title":{"rendered":"No more democracy games with the West"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

By Alaksandar K\u0142asko\u016dski, Pozirk<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Minsk held democratic elections in 2020, but no one in the West has appreciated it, so there will be no more \u201cgames of democracy\u201d with the West, Aleksandr \u0141uka\u0161enka said on December 6, indicating that he will tolerate no dissent in the run-up and during the 2024 elections.<\/em><\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

No more need to pretend <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Although Belarus is a democracy under the Constitution, until recently \u0141uka\u0161enka has been imitating democracy only to receive bonuses from the West. Minsk has reluctantly tolerated some degree of political pluralism in exchange for international recognition of election results. Now that it is no longer possible, there is no more reason to even bother. The regime has defaulted on its constitutional obligation to hold democratic elections. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The 2020 presidential election fell far short of democratic standards. \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s major rivals \u2013 Siarhiej Cichano\u016dski and Viktar Babaryka, as well as prominent opposition politicians Mika\u0142aj Statkievi\u010d and Pava\u0142 Sieviaryniec \u2013 were jailed early in the campaign. Authorities used the COVID pandemic as a pretext to bar independent observers from polling stations, and riot police was unleashed on protesters long before the voting day. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

It was a big surprise that \u015aviat\u0142ana Cichano\u016dskaja was registered as a candidate. The regime tried to show some tolerance towards opponents, and give \u0141uka\u0161enka an opportunity to easily defeat his female rival.” <\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Cichano\u016dskaja received a lot more votes than officials expected, inspiring her supporters to take to the street. Nevertheless, \u0141uka\u0161enka claimed victory with 80 percent, and the subsequent crackdown on mass protests against election fraud signaled the end of imitation democracy. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Once bitten, twice shy. Minsk will not leave anything to chance next year. Opposition parties have been shut down. At almost every meeting, \u0141uka\u0161enka instructs his chain of command to firmly control the 2024 elections for the House of Representatives and local councils. The 2025 presidential elections are unlikely to bring any surprises either. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWe have seen what kind of \u2018democracy\u2019 this is,\u201d \u0141uka\u0161enka said. \u201cWe have already had enough of it [in 2020], we are experienced people and we are quick to learn.\u201d <\/p>\n\n\n\n

In this respect he is right. The regime increasingly resorts to Josef Stalin\u2019s practices and shows remarkable creativity in using IT for stifling dissent. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Minsk urges Poles to remove \u201cWashington\u2019s lackeys\u201d from power <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Determined not to give in to the West, \u0141uka\u0161enka may still be hoping to repair relations with the civilized world. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

In his recent speech he made an overture to Warsaw, \u201cWe don\u2019t want the Poles to consider us strangers or enemies. We never wanted to fight or to aggravate relations with the Poles.\u201d <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Relations between Belarus and Warsaw deteriorated after the 2021 migration crisis at the Belarusian-Polish border. In a more recent incident, the Belarusian ruler threatened to send Wagner mercenaries to Warsaw or Rzeszow. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Moreover, he did not mince words when he called President Andrzej Duda and Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki \u201cWashington\u2019s lackeys\u201d and reiterated his usual horror story that \u201cthe Poles are ready to seize western Ukraine.\u201d <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka hopes that the opposition led by Donald Tusk will win in the upcoming parliamentary election in Poland and work to improve relations with Belarus. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Belarusian leader said that Polish diplomats in Belarus hope for a reset of relations if the opposition comes to power. It is unclear whether that was a wiretap, a leak of some confidential exchange or just his fantasy. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka, Putin expecting Western \u201csofties\u201d to back down <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Belarusian ruler clearly hopes that his boldness will force Warsaw and EU to look for compromises, \u201cI really hope, I have a gut feeling that Germany and Europe as a whole, as well as France, will turn toward us.” <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Putin and \u0141uka\u0161enka have similar hopes. They expect the West to get increasingly tired of supporting Ukraine and hope that some Western politicians will have to reach out to voters who are not enthusiastic about the sanctions against Russia and Belarus and arms supplies to Kyiv. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is difficult for European democracies to agree on new packages of sanctions, because some countries, like Hungary, are playing their own game. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka has recently received credentials from the Hungarian ambassador, which is a significant diplomatic breakthrough for the Belarusian regime. A pro-Russian party won elections in Slovakia, and other political players with a similar agenda might strengthen their positions in other EU countries. Traditionally, Minsk has a special relationship with Vienna and the Vatican. To please Brazil, Portugal is lobbying for the easing sanctions against Belarusian potash producers. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Moscow and Minsk hope that the Republicans will win and Donald Trump will return to power in the United States. This could weaken support for Ukraine and undermine the sanctions against Russia and Belarus. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Both Vladimir Putin and \u0141uka\u0161enka look down on democracies. In his recent speech \u0141uka\u0161enka used the term \u201cshitty democracy.\u201d They both consider Western politicians to be softies, who need to look after their voters’ whims and have short time in the office. The Russian and Belarusian rulers have already outlived many politicians in EU and the leaders of European countries. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The two autocrats can make fast decisions and allocate large resources without much debate. They consider cruelty and absence of moral inhibitions their advantages and their weapons, which they use skillfully. When the global communist system collapsed, Francis Fukuyama rushed to call it the end of history, hoping for a global triumph of democracy. However, in today’s world everything is much more complicated and tragic. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nuclear weapons as the last argument <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is clear that the foreign policy plans of Moscow and Minsk are wishful thinking. The likely change of government in Poland will not fundamentally change Warsaw\u2019s policy toward Belarus. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Neither the EU nor the United States, no matter who comes to power, will give up democratic values, which means that tensions in their relations with the regimes in Minsk and Moscow will persist. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Putin and \u0141uka\u0161enka hope for turmoil in the West and the easing of the sanctions. The two rulers do not intend to make concessions to the \u201cshitty democracy.\u201d Eventually, if the West puts too much pressure, then Moscow push the red button, \u0141uka\u0161enka says, essentially relaying Putin\u2019s nuclear blackmail. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka was happy to receive Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus. A truncheon in hand, especially a nuclear one, is much handier for him than imitation democracy.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Alaksandar K\u0142asko\u016dski, Pozirk Minsk held democratic elections in 2020, but no one in the West has appreciated it, so there will be no more \u201cgames of democracy\u201d with the West, Aleksandr \u0141uka\u0161enka said on December 6, indicating that he will tolerate no dissent in the run-up and during the 2024 elections.  No more need […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":4080,"template":"","rubric":[22],"class_list":["post-4350","longreads","type-longreads","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nNo more democracy games with the West | Pozirk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"By Alaksandar K\u0142asko\u016dski, Pozirk Minsk held democratic elections in 2020, but no one in the West has appreciated it, so there will be no more \u201cgames of\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" 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